Author Topic: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan  (Read 666705 times)

Online kevinof

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1416
  • Somewhere on the boat
  • Liked: 1615
  • Likes Given: 1144
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1900 on: 05/30/2021 09:51 am »
Just about sums it up for me. Ballsy move to change and they get a brownie point for that BUT it's very very late in the day to make a change like this. It's basically throw our all your tooling, retrain your team for stainless and lots of other changes as a result.

Fast followers they are most definitely not and I suspect we won't see New Glenn flying customer payloads this side of 2024.

...
So the calculus comes down to, does stainless, plus moderate-performance ceramic TPS, beat Al and/or carbon fiber, plus EXTREME-performance ceramic TPS to protect these pansy materials, in terms of weight and cost? Elon has determined, apparently, YES. Yes it does. Jeffy-boy has, in turn, recognized that Elon is correct. My goodness, it must piss him off no end.

And therein may be the answer to Blue's search for a tangible goal: Whatever SpaceX is doing, faster-better-cheaper. Classic fast-follower model; let the pioneers get the arrows in their back. But going to require some significant change on the Blue side because at present the pioneers (SpaceX) are outrunning the arrows.
I think the whole "Blue as the fast-follower" idea is a dead horse that people are still beating to a pulp for some reason.
Yeah, if there's a fast follower in the launch business it's Rocketlab.
As far as the change to steel, it's either a great sign or a terrible one, we'll have to wait and see how fast and well they actually implement the swap. Avoiding sunk cost fallacies is one of the things that makes SpaceX such a potent company, and it's something Blue's going to have to get better at if they're ever gonna compete. But SpaceX has a constant drive to deliver that Blue is conspicuously lacking. If they can't fix that, the switch to steel is gonna be a lead weight around their neck. But given that BE-4 is apparently still running well behind schedule, maybe they can afford to rework the design without incurring too much further delay.
I think it's both a good and a bad sign. Good that they're willing to pivot and not slavishly devoted to sunk cost; a bad sign that they're this late in the game and are switching material systems and scrapping all their tooling.

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 34755
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 18549
  • Likes Given: 9852
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1901 on: 05/30/2021 10:22 am »
This is why Iíve given a non-zero chance of Neutron beating New Glenn to orbit.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline enzo

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 137
  • USA
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 863
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1902 on: 05/30/2021 06:32 pm »
Eric Berger has just thrown the information on stainless into doubt.
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1399065967821570053

Offline Joseph Peterson

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 751
  • Pittsburgh, PA
  • Liked: 561
  • Likes Given: 14267
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1903 on: 05/31/2021 01:00 am »
Quote
Based on what I know right now,

Not having any idea what Blue is actually up to is a recurring theme.  The use of this particular qualifier leaves me wondering what Eric Berger knows and how much he trusts his sources.

Then again my initial take when I saw the reports Blue of switching to steel were overwhelming positive.  Perhaps I'm reading too much into the qualifier instead of questioning whether my opinion was justified.

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6015
  • Liked: 3855
  • Likes Given: 3440
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1904 on: 05/31/2021 02:36 am »
They may go with 9 engines on the booster instead of 7.  Then they could make a BE-4U for a single upper stage to follow F9 development, but using stainless steel for reusability.  Then again they might want to use the original two BE-3U's but add a single BE-3 for landing the second stage or smaller BE-7's for landing. 

It is still more expensive to LEO using hydrogen than metholox on both stages. 

Seems as if Blue was going "old school" for first and second stages for efficiency originally.  Like aluminum, metholox lower, hydrolox upper.  This was and is a more expensive route as proven by F9's kerolox stages for their first rocket. 

Stainless steel seems to be proving to be a less expensive route.  Using the same engines for both first and second stage is also cheaper.  Then the problem is GSO birds and deep space.  Either refueling would have to be done (SpaceX approach) or using hydrolox. 

I think they may go with 9 engines instead of 7 if they redesign to stainless steel to overcome the mass and use less engine pressure to achieve their 45 tons to LEO goal. 

Oh good
Let’s have Blue make more fundamental design changes.
That should get them to orbit faster.
(After they redesign the launch pad, too, of course.)

People have posited that a supposed switch by Blue to stainless steel is a copy of the switch by SpaceX.
However, Blue has made a clear point of NOT copying  SpaceX, no matter how well their innovations work.
Reentry burns
Grid fins
Stationary landing barges
9 engines (yes)
Iterative design
and aluminum-lithium

New Glenn is not Starship
But upthread, someone was saying that NG will do without an entry burn by taking much of the reentry load on the side of the first stage.
Maybe Blue has back into needing the stainless steel solution found by Musk
That’s gonna take some talking around.
Just as long as they don't have to ask for the ‘recipe’ for Stainless 304X.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2021 02:38 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10063
  • Liked: 588
  • Likes Given: 669
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1905 on: 05/31/2021 02:38 am »
This is why Iíve given a non-zero chance of Neutron beating New Glenn to orbit.

I donít pay much attention to Beal Origin.

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6015
  • Liked: 3855
  • Likes Given: 3440
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1906 on: 06/01/2021 12:42 am »
This is why Iíve given a non-zero chance of Neutron beating New Glenn to orbit.

I donít pay much attention to Beal Origin.

Is that supposed to be a joke about Beal vs Blue?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online butters

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2241
  • Liked: 1383
  • Likes Given: 467
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1907 on: 06/01/2021 01:39 am »
Quote
Based on what I know right now,
Not having any idea what Blue is actually up to is a recurring theme.  The use of this particular qualifier leaves me wondering what Eric Berger knows and how much he trusts his sources.
Based on Glassdoor reviews, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the left hand/coast doesn't know what the right hand/coast is doing. Information siloing is a known problem at Blue Origin. It's quite possible that there's been a team evaluating stainless steel for a while, kept secret from the large majority of employees. They don't need to know about a project that might go nowhere or render their work obsolete.

IF such a stainless steel trade study were evolving into a much more serious program, Blue would have wanted to manage the release of that information internally so that they'd have answers for the inevitable questions from employees. Different teams would be impacted in different ways and to different extents, so each team would need its own set of answers.

That would take time, and meanwhile, there are meddling passerbys poking around Exploration Park and seeing things that most of workforce in Kent wasn't meant to know about. Recent reporting included a Florida source claiming that the folks back at headquarters are unaware of what's going on at the Cape.

Putting these pieces together, I would want to distinguish between what the west coast and east coast sources are saying with regards to the New Glenn rumors, and I would put more weight on sources from Exploration Park. If Blue spun up a parallel engineering org in Florida and decided to adopt their designs, the engineering teams in Kent might be the last to know about it.

Online GalacticIntruder

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 508
  • Pet Peeve:I hate the word Downcomer. Ban it.
  • Huntsville, AL
  • Liked: 244
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1908 on: 06/01/2021 02:26 am »
Everyone likes to gush over NG 7m fairing, but has anyone priced that out? Musk complained his 5.4m fairing was millions of dollars, so they found a way to recover them. I can only imagine what this thing cost, especially at low volume and expendable.

NG is not cheaper, nor will it ever be,  than F9 or FH. Maybe equal to expendable FH DoD with extended fairing variant. So unless Blue gets Moon and Kuiper contracts where performance and volume is needed, then it really has no reason to exist. They need to get way cheaper, or scale way up for SLS/Starship, or scale down to Vulcan.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2021 02:07 am by GalacticIntruder »
"And now the Sun will fade, All we are is all we made." Breaking Benjamin

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 25472
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 47996
  • Likes Given: 16350
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1909 on: 06/01/2021 06:59 am »
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1399380542416572419

Quote
We salute those who made the ultimate sacrifice in service to our country.

https://twitter.com/booster_buddies/status/1399555509989085185

Quote
Blue posted it today. Iím pretty sure thatís the pathfinder in question but I could be wrong

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1399557206383628290

Quote
It definitely is, though Blue has also had a tendency to post old content so it could have been taken weeks or even months ago

https://twitter.com/booster_buddies/status/1399557741149143044

Quote
Nah, this is new. Taken just the other day.

Offline sebk

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 434
  • Europe
  • Liked: 532
  • Likes Given: 15167
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1910 on: 06/01/2021 09:21 am »
So we have a recent photo of the pathfinder body

We also had a photo of something like pathfinder thrust section put outside. And consistent rumors of other stuff being dumped.

Speculation: maybe the change is smaller, for example they change thrust section into SS but leaving Al tanks. This would make some sense, as the thrust section is the forward one during reentry and gets strongest heating. IOW there would be only partial change to SS

Offline spacenut

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4668
  • East Alabama
  • Liked: 2280
  • Likes Given: 2331
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1911 on: 06/01/2021 01:33 pm »
They might go with a chomper style fairing to bring back for future reuse instead of composite.  At one time they were going to full reuse.  Full reuse might work with the upper stage if they can get a BE-3 in the middle of the stage.  It can throttle from 30-100% as seen on New Sheppard.  This would allow for recovery of second stage. 

Offline Redclaws

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 626
  • Liked: 747
  • Likes Given: 810
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1912 on: 06/01/2021 01:54 pm »
Quote
Based on what I know right now,
Not having any idea what Blue is actually up to is a recurring theme.  The use of this particular qualifier leaves me wondering what Eric Berger knows and how much he trusts his sources.
Based on Glassdoor reviews, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the left hand/coast doesn't know what the right hand/coast is doing. Information siloing is a known problem at Blue Origin. It's quite possible that there's been a team evaluating stainless steel for a while, kept secret from the large majority of employees. They don't need to know about a project that might go nowhere or render their work obsolete.

IF such a stainless steel trade study were evolving into a much more serious program, Blue would have wanted to manage the release of that information internally so that they'd have answers for the inevitable questions from employees. Different teams would be impacted in different ways and to different extents, so each team would need its own set of answers.

That would take time, and meanwhile, there are meddling passerbys poking around Exploration Park and seeing things that most of workforce in Kent wasn't meant to know about. Recent reporting included a Florida source claiming that the folks back at headquarters are unaware of what's going on at the Cape.

Putting these pieces together, I would want to distinguish between what the west coast and east coast sources are saying with regards to the New Glenn rumors, and I would put more weight on sources from Exploration Park. If Blue spun up a parallel engineering org in Florida and decided to adopt their designs, the engineering teams in Kent might be the last to know about it.

This is such a mess.  I understand the SpaceX way of doing things is disruptive even internally, but imagine the idea that SpaceX staff donít know whatís going on - and arenít allowed to know - or them having *secret* parallel organizations.  This is the kind of thing you do to try to escape horribly broken corporate structure.  Itís ... obviously better not to have that.  Ooooffff.

Offline rakaydos

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2760
  • Liked: 1820
  • Likes Given: 66
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1913 on: 06/01/2021 02:03 pm »
Quote
Based on what I know right now,
Not having any idea what Blue is actually up to is a recurring theme.  The use of this particular qualifier leaves me wondering what Eric Berger knows and how much he trusts his sources.
Based on Glassdoor reviews, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the left hand/coast doesn't know what the right hand/coast is doing. Information siloing is a known problem at Blue Origin. It's quite possible that there's been a team evaluating stainless steel for a while, kept secret from the large majority of employees. They don't need to know about a project that might go nowhere or render their work obsolete.

IF such a stainless steel trade study were evolving into a much more serious program, Blue would have wanted to manage the release of that information internally so that they'd have answers for the inevitable questions from employees. Different teams would be impacted in different ways and to different extents, so each team would need its own set of answers.

That would take time, and meanwhile, there are meddling passerbys poking around Exploration Park and seeing things that most of workforce in Kent wasn't meant to know about. Recent reporting included a Florida source claiming that the folks back at headquarters are unaware of what's going on at the Cape.

Putting these pieces together, I would want to distinguish between what the west coast and east coast sources are saying with regards to the New Glenn rumors, and I would put more weight on sources from Exploration Park. If Blue spun up a parallel engineering org in Florida and decided to adopt their designs, the engineering teams in Kent might be the last to know about it.

This is such a mess.  I understand the SpaceX way of doing things is disruptive even internally, but imagine the idea that SpaceX staff donít know whatís going on - and arenít allowed to know - or them having *secret* parallel organizations.  This is the kind of thing you do to try to escape horribly broken corporate structure.  Itís ... obviously better not to have that.  Ooooffff.
Do you mean Blue, instead of SpaceX? Because I'm pretty sure the poster is describing a broken culture at Blue.

Offline Redclaws

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 626
  • Liked: 747
  • Likes Given: 810
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1914 on: 06/01/2021 03:23 pm »
Quote
Based on what I know right now,
Not having any idea what Blue is actually up to is a recurring theme.  The use of this particular qualifier leaves me wondering what Eric Berger knows and how much he trusts his sources.
Based on Glassdoor reviews, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the left hand/coast doesn't know what the right hand/coast is doing. Information siloing is a known problem at Blue Origin. It's quite possible that there's been a team evaluating stainless steel for a while, kept secret from the large majority of employees. They don't need to know about a project that might go nowhere or render their work obsolete.

IF such a stainless steel trade study were evolving into a much more serious program, Blue would have wanted to manage the release of that information internally so that they'd have answers for the inevitable questions from employees. Different teams would be impacted in different ways and to different extents, so each team would need its own set of answers.

That would take time, and meanwhile, there are meddling passerbys poking around Exploration Park and seeing things that most of workforce in Kent wasn't meant to know about. Recent reporting included a Florida source claiming that the folks back at headquarters are unaware of what's going on at the Cape.

Putting these pieces together, I would want to distinguish between what the west coast and east coast sources are saying with regards to the New Glenn rumors, and I would put more weight on sources from Exploration Park. If Blue spun up a parallel engineering org in Florida and decided to adopt their designs, the engineering teams in Kent might be the last to know about it.

This is such a mess.  I understand the SpaceX way of doing things is disruptive even internally, but imagine the idea that SpaceX staff donít know whatís going on - and arenít allowed to know - or them having *secret* parallel organizations.  This is the kind of thing you do to try to escape horribly broken corporate structure.  Itís ... obviously better not to have that.  Ooooffff.
Do you mean Blue, instead of SpaceX? Because I'm pretty sure the poster is describing a broken culture at Blue.

Yes, Iím talking about Blue.  I am specifically trying to contrast them - I think itís impossible to imagine SpaceX having this sort of internal secrecy and separate teams.  The comments above talk about how Blue might want to control the spread of information about a change because it disrupts existing teams.

Can you imagine SpaceX doing that?  Their way of rapid change is disruptive, in that one day the carbon fiber team just ... doesnít have a project any more, but they just deal with that.  There is no hiding of change from parts of the organization.

It is incredible to consider instead carefully managing information flows and having *secret* competing teams.  This seems to mark really deep dysfunction at Blue, as these are the sorts of things you do when you need to avoid your own normal processes.  Eeek.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2021 03:26 pm by Redclaws »

Offline Joseph Peterson

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 751
  • Pittsburgh, PA
  • Liked: 561
  • Likes Given: 14267
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1915 on: 06/01/2021 03:46 pm »
https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1399380542416572419

Quote
We salute those who made the ultimate sacrifice in service to our country.

https://twitter.com/booster_buddies/status/1399555509989085185

Quote
Blue posted it today. Iím pretty sure thatís the pathfinder in question but I could be wrong

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1399557206383628290

Quote
It definitely is, though Blue has also had a tendency to post old content so it could have been taken weeks or even months ago

https://twitter.com/booster_buddies/status/1399557741149143044

Quote
Nah, this is new. Taken just the other day.

Thank you for posting that tweet.  The angle is different but that tooling to the right of the door looks very much like the now-deleted twitter image of tooling that was allegedly dragged out of Blue's factory nearly a month ago.

Steel rumors aside because said rumors are irrelevant to my question.  What is that tooling used for and what is the technical name?

Offline AU1.52

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 600
  • Life is like riding a bicycle - Einstein
  • Ohio, USA, AU1
  • Liked: 614
  • Likes Given: 674
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1916 on: 06/01/2021 04:19 pm »
They have however gone backwards. The Screen grab is from their Feb 2021 tour of the factory. Missing the structural engine section and the fins now.

Edit: Also the body has been moved towards the center of the factory - much closer to the black door / US Flag.

« Last Edit: 06/01/2021 04:21 pm by AU1.52 »

Offline electricdawn

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 266
  • Liked: 596
  • Likes Given: 1443
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1917 on: 06/01/2021 04:21 pm »
The fin might be hidden by that blue structure in front of it.

But yeah... compared to SpaceX's pace... *sigh*

Jeff Bezos! You were the chosen one! *slightly snarky*

Edit: They actually might've extended the outer shell towards the lower end of the stage. That's why it looks like Blue took away the engine section whereas in fact they might've not.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2021 04:25 pm by electricdawn »

Offline gaballard

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 573
  • Los Angeles
  • Liked: 1389
  • Likes Given: 1108
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1918 on: 06/01/2021 04:46 pm »
That doesn't even look like the same mandrel; the newer pic (from Memorial Day) has a closed end painted gray, the "Factory Progress" pic w/the fin has an open end painted yellow/green. Did they... turn the whole thing around? Did they actually scrap the first mandrel and this is a new one?
« Last Edit: 06/01/2021 04:47 pm by gaballard »
"The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible." - Clarke's Second Law

Offline Steve G

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
  • Ottawa, ON
    • Stephen H Garrity
  • Liked: 461
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #1919 on: 06/01/2021 04:53 pm »
Blue has always worked in obsessive secrecy and they must have one heck of an NDA as nothing seems to leak from their employees.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement SkyTale Software GmbH
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0