Author Topic: Relativity Space: General Thread  (Read 352946 times)

Offline trimeta

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #720 on: 03/09/2023 05:05 pm »
Will Terran R be flown with reuseable US from its first flight?.
I have no idea. The usual difference is that an expendable second stage is designed to minimize cost and mass, while a reusable second stage is designed for EDL, so two different designs. But Relativity needs to test their reusable design. My completely uninformed guess: they will not do a separate expendable design, but will produce and fly the reusable design from the very first flight, even if they do not attempt to actually land it.

This does seem likely, but they'll almost certainly prioritize refining first-stage reuse, with the second stage basically their "first draft" reusable version without any refinements (or successful reuses) until they've worked out the first stage.

I guess they could do both in parallel, but I don't know if they'd have the resources to attempt that, and it's clear what's most important to work on first.

Online tssp_art

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #721 on: 03/09/2023 06:02 pm »
Will Terran R be flown with reuseable US from its first flight?.
I have no idea. The usual difference is that an expendable second stage is designed to minimize cost and mass, while a reusable second stage is designed for EDL, so two different designs. But Relativity needs to test their reusable design. My completely uninformed guess: they will not do a separate expendable design, but will produce and fly the reusable design from the very first flight, even if they do not attempt to actually land it.

I have a slightly different (but equally uninformed!) opinion. I think they will follow SpaceX's approach to an expendable and/or reusable second stage. But i don't think we know what that approach is just yet. The steady stream of Starship prototypes have included successively more features of reusability which, if Relativity follows SpaceX, would support your speculation. But I keep looking at Ship 26 and 27 and see prototypes of an expendable upper stage that would allow the Starship launch system to start earning its keep as a Starlink launcher.

Terran R with an expendable (and easy/cheap to manufacture) upper stage could be (1) earning revenue, (2) exercising payload processing, (3) establishing Relativity in the launch business and stabilizing their business model, and (4) maybe start building up their credibility and launch cadence all while the bugs are worked out with Terran R Stage 1 reusability and reliability. Then they can move on to the development, test and refinement of the features needed for a reusable stage 2.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #722 on: 03/09/2023 06:17 pm »
I’m pretty sure that the first launch they said would have at least an expendable upper stage. It’s a high energy mission to Mars, single launch, so basically no chance of upper stage recovery anyway.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #723 on: 03/09/2023 08:31 pm »
They don't need reuseable US to be competitive initially. F9, Neutron and Firefly MLV will only have expendable US, that may change with time. Reuse of US has quite a payload hit so $kg may not change much.

Offline brussell

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #724 on: 03/10/2023 05:25 pm »
Relativity has large cash reserves for now. Probably burning through it at fair rate, especially with Terran R development. No revenue as of present that I know of.

Last I heard, the company has about 1,200 people on staff. I compiled their funding round and employee ramp rate (citations needed) on a simple $150/hour rate for comp and overhead. Even with their extensive funding in 2020 and 2021, they should be looking for more money very soon. Of course, this doesn't cover the 1MM sqft facility in Long Beach, the new facilities at Stennis, and of course the vehicle hardware itself.


That does assume they will receive absolutely no further revenue or investment, which has not been the case thus far. Even SpaceX performed a funding round within the last quarter, and have been doing so regularly (IIRC to the tune of around $10bn invested thus far). This is no surprise, that's just the way many businesses operate.

This is true. They'll just get more funding but they *have* to, and soon. They are executing well so that shouldn't be a problem but darn, what a burn rate.

Offline ringsider

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #725 on: 03/10/2023 06:10 pm »
With the implosion at Silicon Valley Bank, was/is Relativity an SVB customer?

This blog by their "Frontier Tech" team seems to indicate a relationship:-

https://www.svb.com/blogs/ann-kim/what-weve-been-building

Offline brussell

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #726 on: 03/10/2023 09:33 pm »
With the implosion at Silicon Valley Bank, was/is Relativity an SVB customer?

This blog by their "Frontier Tech" team seems to indicate a relationship:-

https://www.svb.com/blogs/ann-kim/what-weve-been-building

It's quite possible. However they'd be a customer of their loans, not an investor. How does this affect customers? Maybe then can't get more loans or refinance? No idea.

Offline Action

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #727 on: 03/10/2023 10:42 pm »
With the implosion at Silicon Valley Bank, was/is Relativity an SVB customer?

This blog by their "Frontier Tech" team seems to indicate a relationship:-

https://www.svb.com/blogs/ann-kim/what-weve-been-building

It's quite possible. However they'd be a customer of their loans, not an investor. How does this affect customers? Maybe then can't get more loans or refinance? No idea.

The issue is people or companies who were depositors and now find their funds at risk.  If you were a middle-sized startup who kept $30 million of your payroll deposited at SVB, you may have a problem getting access to your cash or even getting it all back.

FDIC insurance covers small accounts.  Big firms have better things to do with their cash.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #728 on: 03/10/2023 11:19 pm »
With the implosion at Silicon Valley Bank, was/is Relativity an SVB customer?

This blog by their "Frontier Tech" team seems to indicate a relationship:-

https://www.svb.com/blogs/ann-kim/what-weve-been-building

It's quite possible. However they'd be a customer of their loans, not an investor. How does this affect customers? Maybe then can't get more loans or refinance? No idea.

The issue is people or companies who were depositors and now find their funds at risk.  If you were a middle-sized startup who kept $30 million of your payroll deposited at SVB, you may have a problem getting access to your cash or even getting it all back.

FDIC insurance covers small accounts.  Big firms have better things to do with their cash.

Case in point, Rocket Lab had $38M deposited with SVB. Although that's out of $472M in cash and marketable securities they had on-hand as of the end of 2022 (and a quarterly EBITDA loss of under $40M), so it's not "can't make payroll"-levels of concerning.

https://twitter.com/SpaceInvestor_/status/1634331128566882304

How much Relativity may have had deposited with SVB, and how that compares to their total cash and marketable securities on-hand, is unknown due to their status as a private company.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #729 on: 04/27/2023 05:02 pm »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1651630410047135744

Quote
Newsletter: A special @MorganLBrennan edition

Her thoughts from the "Manifest Space" podcast interview with Relativity's @thetimellis, reflecting on his move to go all-in on Terran R:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/27/investing-in-space-relativity-ceo-bets-on-bigger-rockets-ai.html

Podcast link:

https://cnbc-manifest-space-with-morgan-brennan.simplecast.com/episodes/disruption-theory-with-relativity-space-ceo-tim-ellis-4-21-23-im5Wi7je

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #730 on: 05/06/2023 07:45 am »
twitter.com/relativityspace/status/1654629268339703808

Quote
Over at our Long Beach headquarters, the Wormhole, Terran R's production base covers 1 million sq. ft. of possibilities coming to life with a buzzin' factory.   🚀 #TerranR

https://twitter.com/relativityspace/status/1654629497843634176

Quote
A lot can happen in just under a year same place Circa 2022 👀

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #731 on: 05/09/2023 01:58 pm »
https://twitter.com/relativityspace/status/1655921377994756103

Quote
Just in! We're thrilled to be on @CNBCdisruptors 2023 list of companies transforming industries for the 2nd year in a row!  🚀

Find us at #4: https://cnb.cx/3NPk8Vd #Disruptor50

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #732 on: 05/09/2023 08:56 pm »
Anyone else curious how a company that hasn't yet delivered a working product (reach orbit for a launch service provider) managed to make top-10?

Quote
Quantitative metrics included company-submitted data on workforce size and diversity, scalability, and sales and user growth. Some of this information has been kept off the record and was used for scoring purposes only. CNBC also brought in data from a pair of outside partners — PitchBook, which provided data on fundraising, implied valuations and investor quality; and IBISWorld, whose database of industry reports we use to compare the companies based on the industries they are attempting to disrupt.

CNBC’s Disruptor 50 Advisory Council — a group of 51 leading thinkers in the field of innovation and entrepreneurship from around the world (see list of members below) — then ranked the quantitative criteria by importance and ability to disrupt established industries and public companies. This year the council again found that scalability and user growth were the most important criteria
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/09/the-2023-cnbc-disruptor-50-how-we-chose-the-companies.html

I wish Relativity well and congratulations on having one of the most successful maiden flights of late, but a top-10 ranking based on scaling up factory space and employee head count (after VirginOrbit's failure), fundraising quality, and future potential (when the next flight isn't expected until 2026) seems at best premature.


Also this is their 3rd year in a row. They two previous appearances were as #36 in 2022 and #23 in 2021. Maybe they aren't paying much attention to those rankings either?

Offline edzieba

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #733 on: 05/10/2023 01:58 pm »
Anyone else curious how a company that hasn't yet delivered a working product (reach orbit for a launch service provider) managed to make top-10?
Because as your own link explains, that's not one of the priorities for their listing. Take it up with CNBC if you disagree.

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #734 on: 05/18/2023 05:37 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1659237702380802049
Quote
The integrated Cruise Vehicle, Entry Capsule, and Mars Lander developed by Impulse Space will launch in 2026 on the Relativity Terran R launch vehicle. After traveling through interplanetary space for over half a year, the Cruise Vehicle will inject the Entry Capsule into the correct landing trajectory and detach. The Entry Capsule will use the proven combination of heatshield and parachute to slow down enough to safely deploy the Mars Lander into freefall. The lander will then perform a propulsive landing using purpose-built engines developed in-house at Impulse Space, completing the first commercial payload delivery to the surface of another planet.
https://www.impulsespace.com/mars
I publish information in Spanish about space and rockets.
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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #735 on: 05/21/2023 06:26 pm »
So... I've lost all faith. I mean, Relativity has never managed to inspire a lot of confidence in me, but this whole thing is a couple bridges too far.

Hey, let's get 99% of the way to putting a rocket into orbit... then abandon the rocket, and the pad and other ground infrastructure, and throw all our effort behind our next-gen vehicle. And while we're at it, lets pair-back our next-gen vehicle to be the equivalent of existing vehicles, ensuring that we will, even in the absolute best possible scenario, just be 2nd to an existing market. And in the worst case scenario, we are competing with Starship, AND Falcon 9, AND New Glenn, AND Neutron, AND Firefly's MLV...

...well, good luck with that Relativity, but I don't think that's gonna work.
« Last Edit: 05/21/2023 06:28 pm by JEF_300 »
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline ParabolicSnark

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #736 on: 05/22/2023 03:51 pm »
So... I've lost all faith. I mean, Relativity has never managed to inspire a lot of confidence in me, but this whole thing is a couple bridges too far.

Hey, let's get 99% of the way to putting a rocket into orbit... then abandon the rocket, and the pad and other ground infrastructure, and throw all our effort behind our next-gen vehicle. And while we're at it, lets pair-back our next-gen vehicle to be the equivalent of existing vehicles, ensuring that we will, even in the absolute best possible scenario, just be 2nd to an existing market. And in the worst case scenario, we are competing with Starship, AND Falcon 9, AND New Glenn, AND Neutron, AND Firefly's MLV...

...well, good luck with that Relativity, but I don't think that's gonna work.

And to add to that, they're going to have burned almost $3B by that point to make it all happen (~$1.3B to date, +3 more years burn rate at $400-600MM/year). Remember the Twitter boondoggle where Musk and Beck were shocked that VO spent $1B on their initial program?

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #737 on: 05/22/2023 04:27 pm »
So... I've lost all faith. I mean, Relativity has never managed to inspire a lot of confidence in me, but this whole thing is a couple bridges too far.

Hey, let's get 99% of the way to putting a rocket into orbit... then abandon the rocket, and the pad and other ground infrastructure, and throw all our effort behind our next-gen vehicle. And while we're at it, lets pair-back our next-gen vehicle to be the equivalent of existing vehicles, ensuring that we will, even in the absolute best possible scenario, just be 2nd to an existing market. And in the worst case scenario, we are competing with Starship, AND Falcon 9, AND New Glenn, AND Neutron, AND Firefly's MLV...

...well, good luck with that Relativity, but I don't think that's gonna work.
Nah, the change in direction is bullish for those paying attention… it shows they aren’t infected by the Sunk cost fallacy.

Smallsat launch is just not profitable even when operational. RocketLab is doing the best they can, but Electron is kind of a loss leader to enable them to sell Photon, develop Neutron, etc.

Terran-1 accomplished its goal as a pathfinder for a larger rocket. Mission accomplished.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #738 on: 05/22/2023 04:28 pm »
So... I've lost all faith. I mean, Relativity has never managed to inspire a lot of confidence in me, but this whole thing is a couple bridges too far.

Hey, let's get 99% of the way to putting a rocket into orbit... then abandon the rocket, and the pad and other ground infrastructure, and throw all our effort behind our next-gen vehicle. And while we're at it, lets pair-back our next-gen vehicle to be the equivalent of existing vehicles, ensuring that we will, even in the absolute best possible scenario, just be 2nd to an existing market. And in the worst case scenario, we are competing with Starship, AND Falcon 9, AND New Glenn, AND Neutron, AND Firefly's MLV...

...well, good luck with that Relativity, but I don't think that's gonna work.

And to add to that, they're going to have burned almost $3B by that point to make it all happen (~$1.3B to date, +3 more years burn rate at $400-600MM/year). Remember the Twitter boondoggle where Musk and Beck were shocked that VO spent $1B on their initial program?
Unlike VO, Relativity has already test fired the engine for their heavy lift vehicle. VO’s entire business plan depended on a particularly expensive approach to smallsat launch. Relativity has always (and yes, always… sorry for short-sellers coming on here claiming otherwise) intended to move fairly quickly to the heavy lift Terran-R, not rely solely on being a smallsat launch provider. Terran-1 was a stepping stone to test their technology and engines and maybe make a little revenue on the way.
« Last Edit: 05/22/2023 04:35 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Relativity Space: General Thread
« Reply #739 on: 05/22/2023 04:41 pm »
As I’ve been saying for a couple of years, the term “New Space” is a bit of a misnomer. If we look at actual results, there is no “New Space”. There is only SpaceX -  and a large number of would-be followers with dubious prospects. So far…

« Last Edit: 05/22/2023 04:43 pm by M.E.T. »

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