Quote from: RanulfC on 11/22/2016 08:20 pmCoupled with the more recent, (and seemingly more pervasive) attitude that anything with 'wings' is the "Shuttle and therefor can never work as suggested" it makes it difficult to believe anyone can actually significantly lower the cost of space access when they refuse to actually examine all the possibilities rather than sticking to the 'usual' assumptions.Not quite.In the UK, anything winged, big and fast was viewed like Concorde, which British civil servants had a horror of repeating. It has literally taken the retirement or death of a generation of senior civil servants, to get the UKG to consider helping (slightly) a UK company do a winged vehicle and a launch vehicle. Quote from: Lars-J on 11/22/2016 06:39 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 11/22/2016 08:31 amSomething I'd like people to keep in mind. Let's just repeat that for people who think either of them looked at Skylon:neither Musk or Beezos did much 'due-diligence' work on anything OTHER than the concepts they went forward with. Repeating such an assertion does not make it any more true.OK then where have they mentioned when either of them said they looked at HTOL and concluded it was unworkable?Given Musk's goal has always been Mars I doubt he spent a second on the idea. As anyone with a cursory knowledge of spaceflight and general engineering would expect. REL don't want to build a Skylon that can land on Mars. They'd be happy to enable a greatly cheaper Mars mission based on Skylon flights to LEO however. So where did Bezos mention this? Interview? Media event? Tweets? You seem so very sure he's wrong. Do you have facts or just your simple faith to guide you?
Coupled with the more recent, (and seemingly more pervasive) attitude that anything with 'wings' is the "Shuttle and therefor can never work as suggested" it makes it difficult to believe anyone can actually significantly lower the cost of space access when they refuse to actually examine all the possibilities rather than sticking to the 'usual' assumptions.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 11/22/2016 08:31 amSomething I'd like people to keep in mind. Let's just repeat that for people who think either of them looked at Skylon:neither Musk or Beezos did much 'due-diligence' work on anything OTHER than the concepts they went forward with. Repeating such an assertion does not make it any more true.
Something I'd like people to keep in mind. Let's just repeat that for people who think either of them looked at Skylon:neither Musk or Beezos did much 'due-diligence' work on anything OTHER than the concepts they went forward with.
He's looked at the numbers and it didn't make sense to him.
I think you're arguing about something different - like you're making some defensive WTO presentation about protectionism. That is not relevant to Skylon or this thread.
I'm trying to point out something quite different which is that without a similar arrangement I think it is going to be difficult to see Skylon and SABRE take off. I think some government needs to make up some random goal (e.g. "provide sovereign access to space" or some other nonsense) and put it out to contract in such a way that Reaction Engines and possibly several other smaller developers are highly likely to get a big chunk of money and can demonstrate whatever :-). It could be the same as an air ministry specification for a new aircraft.
Essentially providing money for a goal that isn't commercial is what I mean.
Quote from: t43562 on 11/23/2016 03:59 pmI think you're arguing about something different - like you're making some defensive WTO presentation about protectionism. That is not relevant to Skylon or this thread.I was responding to the accusation that SpaceX having access to taxpayer funded research was evidence of SpaceX being stated supported. It's not.QuoteI'm trying to point out something quite different which is that without a similar arrangement I think it is going to be difficult to see Skylon and SABRE take off. I think some government needs to make up some random goal (e.g. "provide sovereign access to space" or some other nonsense) and put it out to contract in such a way that Reaction Engines and possibly several other smaller developers are highly likely to get a big chunk of money and can demonstrate whatever :-). It could be the same as an air ministry specification for a new aircraft.The UK is a partner in the ISS, so why not create a UK Commercial Cargo program?But just to be clear, having the UK government pay a domestic company to create a capability, without the UK government really needing that capability, would appear to be a subsidy.NASA had a need to resupply the ISS, and it held an open competition to find potential providers. So that was a real need for services, and NASA has only paid for services rendered. So not a subsidy.QuoteEssentially providing money for a goal that isn't commercial is what I mean.The goal doesn't have to be commercial, but there needs to be a real need.
QuoteI'm trying to point out something quite different which is that without a similar arrangement I think it is going to be difficult to see Skylon and SABRE take off. I think some government needs to make up some random goal (e.g. "provide sovereign access to space" or some other nonsense) and put it out to contract in such a way that Reaction Engines and possibly several other smaller developers are highly likely to get a big chunk of money and can demonstrate whatever :-). It could be the same as an air ministry specification for a new aircraft.The UK is a partner in the ISS, so why not create a UK Commercial Cargo program?But just to be clear, having the UK government pay a domestic company to create a capability, without the UK government really needing that capability, would appear to be a subsidy.NASA had a need to resupply the ISS, and it held an open competition to find potential providers. So that was a real need for services, and NASA has only paid for services rendered. So not a subsidy.
There are other rockets now so there is no "need to resupply".
The ISS itself is not a critical national asset.
Crucially, I think, the ISS is not a business - it's whatever you think it is - a vehicle to spend money or a research platform or whatever.
So a programme with "some development funding plus the purchase of several demonstration flights...
You're not getting the difference between state support and state aid.
Quote from: lkm on 11/24/2016 12:24 pmYou're not getting the difference between state support and state aid.Personally, as a U.S. citizen, I don't care how the UK government spends it's money, so I'm not going to debate the merits of Sklyon funding.
This topic only came up because it was claimed that the Falcon 9 rocket was somehow subsidized - which the facts show it wasn't.
In general though, just like with any transportation system (which includes NASA's SLS), in order to succeed there will need to be a large enough demand for launch services. That demand could come from the existing market, or it could be created by lowering the price of launches or providing services that don't exist today which creates a new segment of the market. This last part of certainly what SpaceX is hoping for with their reusable Falcon 9.So it looks like we're still waiting to better understand if SpaceX has read the market correctly, and depending on that it will give us an indication of what the potential market is for the Skylon.
As for the Skylon, I understand how the UK government would want to support indigenous technology development - and that is something a government should do. The challenge becomes when Skylon would transition out of development and into production and commercial sales, and whether the UK government is part of funding that portion.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 11/24/2016 02:33 amQuoteI'm trying to point out something quite different which is that without a similar arrangement I think it is going to be difficult to see Skylon and SABRE take off. I think some government needs to make up some random goal (e.g. "provide sovereign access to space" or some other nonsense) and put it out to contract in such a way that Reaction Engines and possibly several other smaller developers are highly likely to get a big chunk of money and can demonstrate whatever :-). It could be the same as an air ministry specification for a new aircraft.The UK is a partner in the ISS, so why not create a UK Commercial Cargo program?But just to be clear, having the UK government pay a domestic company to create a capability, without the UK government really needing that capability, would appear to be a subsidy.NASA had a need to resupply the ISS, and it held an open competition to find potential providers. So that was a real need for services, and NASA has only paid for services rendered. So not a subsidy.So a programme with "some development funding plus the purchase of several demonstration flights by NASA UK/ESA" for a Falcon 9 HOTOL/SSTO reusable spacecraft, open only to UK/ESA suppliers, to answer to their need to remain relevant in the upcoming decades and not having to buy Russian American rides, would exactly be the kind of subsidy support Skylon would be happy to have, and would have exactly the same 'need'.
A bit on the expensive side for the UK alone and ArianeSpace probably has enough influence to block/kill by red tape any initiative by any or all ESA members. How about they do the same for the development of the engine that's supposed to drive this thing: build a small test version, a full size version, a test frame and the entire thing.
Quote from: high road on 11/24/2016 10:10 amQuote from: Coastal Ron on 11/24/2016 02:33 amQuoteI'm trying to point out something quite different which is that without a similar arrangement I think it is going to be difficult to see Skylon and SABRE take off. I think some government needs to make up some random goal (e.g. "provide sovereign access to space" or some other nonsense) and put it out to contract in such a way that Reaction Engines and possibly several other smaller developers are highly likely to get a big chunk of money and can demonstrate whatever :-). It could be the same as an air ministry specification for a new aircraft.The UK is a partner in the ISS, so why not create a UK Commercial Cargo program?But just to be clear, having the UK government pay a domestic company to create a capability, without the UK government really needing that capability, would appear to be a subsidy.NASA had a need to resupply the ISS, and it held an open competition to find potential providers. So that was a real need for services, and NASA has only paid for services rendered. So not a subsidy.So a programme with "some development funding plus the purchase of several demonstration flights by NASA UK/ESA" for a Falcon 9 HOTOL/SSTO reusable spacecraft, open only to UK/ESA suppliers, to answer to their need to remain relevant in the upcoming decades and not having to buy Russian American rides, would exactly be the kind of subsidy support Skylon would be happy to have, and would have exactly the same 'need'.That's not the same at all.The United States spends about $3 billion per year on the ISS. The COTS program cost the United States about $400 million to develop a resupply system for the ISS. That is a very modest portion of the overall ISS budget. The ESA participates in ISS, but only some ESA members are included in this participation -- not including the UK! Even if the UK did start to participate, it couldn't afford anything close to the $3 billion a year that the US spends. And Skylon's projected budget is $15 billion, far more than development of Dragon under COTS. So it doesn't add up -- having the UK spend far more for a system to supply a station it spends far less on.More importantly, you're just making this up as a way to support Skylon. The COTS program wasn't made up as a way to support SpaceX. It was because the shuttle was too expensive and dangerous and the US was looking for a cheaper, safer alternative.
Quote from: high road on 11/24/2016 10:10 amA bit on the expensive side for the UK alone and ArianeSpace probably has enough influence to block/kill by red tape any initiative by any or all ESA members. How about they do the same for the development of the engine that's supposed to drive this thing: build a small test version, a full size version, a test frame and the entire thing.Then it's not at all comparable to COTS because they would be paying without getting a capability they need in return -- COTS gave the US the capability to resupply ISS. Having the UK pay for some development of some components of Skylon would give them no capability.
Both Skylon and Falcon 9 (would) do a lot more than 'supplying ISS'.
The 'supplying ISS' part is done by Dragon, but NASA paid for "some development funding plus the purchase of several demonstration flights" for Falcon 9.
Had they instead limited the funding to capsules launchable from existing rockets, or at least excluded the development of a new rocket that would be required to launch a new capsule, you'd be right.
The real goal here is cheaper access to space, and the ability to buy rides domestic rather than Russian or European. You know, the other countries able (before ATV's retirement) to send craft to the ISS.So the 'need' for the UK to fund it's own space launch system would be the ability to 'buy local', whether or not it participates in ISS. Just like the USA wants to buy domestic for access to space in general, including supplying ISS.
I quite agree that the costs don't add up for a single country, and perhaps not even for a group of cooperating member states like ESA. Just pointing out that NASA goes a little further than paying for the service upon delivery. It financially supports companies during development required to deliver the service.
COTS was not a subsidy. The proposed funding of REL/SABRE/Skylon by the UK would be a subsidy.
What's the business reason for replacing it and insisting on it being a US replacement?
Explaining the delays in funding for rocket-engine designerThe government in July 2013 announced it would invest 60 million pounds in Reaction Engines Ltd.’s space plane/hypersonic aircraft engine. But the money was slow in coming, in part because of the need to clear European Union state-aid regulations.The funds began to arrive earlier this year, and Reaction Engines has said it always knew the process would be long.The government’s statement says its funding decision “did not promise funding immediately, but was an in-principle decision to fund, subject to the development of a suitable business case…. Reaction Engines had not produced a suitable business case that met the government’s requirements.”The company since has met the requirements and payments to Reaction Engines began in April, the government said. In addition, an ESA contract related to the company’s SABRE engine is under way.The government did not say whether a post-Brexit Britain would be able to disregard European Union state aid rules.
Quote from: ChrisWilson68 on 11/25/2016 07:27 amCOTS was not a subsidy. The proposed funding of REL/SABRE/Skylon by the UK would be a subsidy.Surely continuing to use Soyuz is a viable option...
...and must be quite a lot cheaper than designing new rockets?