Author Topic: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?  (Read 24560 times)

Offline Comga

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #60 on: 12/03/2018 10:13 pm »
Until they re-use more than once, the number cannot be >50% for any sustainable time ...

--- Tony

And now the third flight, second reuse has happened with SSO-A.

Posting here as it seems like a good place to discuss it:

Interesting factoid from Eric Berger:

SpaceX has now landed half of the rockets (first stages) they have launched.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1069663195311280128

The "half" is the number of landings vs launches, not half the boosters, but if all goes well tomorrow, the majority of SpaceX Falcon 9 first stages will have been recovered intact.  Expendatility has become the exception to the rule.

So far this year SpaceX has launched 8 new first stages and 13 re-used first stages.
The answer to the original question in the op, for SpaceX, is "2018"
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline david1971

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #61 on: 12/04/2018 12:36 am »
So far this year SpaceX has launched 8 new first stages and 13 re-used first stages.
The answer to the original question in the op, for SpaceX, is "2018"

A year ahead of 2019, which was the date targeted by many in the thread...

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #62 on: 12/15/2018 05:04 pm »
SpaceX is likely to close out year 2018 with 10 new S1s and 13 used S1s. 56.5% reuse rate. To note though only 3 BLK have been reused in 4 flights of the 6 new new BLK 5. Also 2 of those New BLK 5 one expended and one recovered but likely not to be reflown.
« Last Edit: 12/15/2018 05:06 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #63 on: 12/16/2018 06:54 pm »
So far this year SpaceX has launched 8 new first stages and 13 re-used first stages.
The answer to the original question in the op, for SpaceX, is "2018"

A year ahead of 2019, which was the date targeted by many in the thread...

Im sure I fit into the 2019 block.  They reuse has really been amazing. The flight rate seems sustainable too. Going forward Im sure well see a high rate of reuse as well. Getting to 10 flights on a core is going to be something to watch.  I wont be sold on that until it happens.

Amazing accomplishment by SpaceX, no other launch provider is even close to cost and achieving reuse.  The next 5+ years appear to be all theirs.

With Starlink deployment approaching its going to be great fun to see what flight rate they achieve in the next t few years.
Needing a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline meekGee

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #64 on: 12/20/2018 01:01 am »
I think thread title should be changed....  (as inspired from the Party thread)

"When will the average flight history of cores exceed 2.0?"
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Online Llian Rhydderch

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Re: When will reused first stages be the majority of launches?
« Reply #65 on: 12/27/2018 06:02 pm »
That's more of an entirely new thread topic, for the new year!   ;D

On NSF, we can never have enough threads.

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Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
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