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FAILURE: Gaofen-10 (GF-10) - CZ-4C - TSLC - August 31, 2016 (18:55 UTC)
by
beidou
on 05 Jul, 2016 19:07
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#1
by
russianhalo117
on 08 Jul, 2016 17:45
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The launch processing team has set out to the launch site.
There was a now deleted photo posted on a forum showing SAST engineers standing in front of the Shanghai train station heading for some unknown launch site, with a banner that reads "Gaofen 10 satellite testing team". 
So yeah, there should be a GF-10 heading up in the next 2-3 months.
So your thinking possibly the following from JSLC or TSLC:
2016
September or October - CZ-4B - TSLC, LC9 - GF-10 Gaofen-10
OR
September or October - CZ-2D - JSLC, LC43/603 - GF-10 Gaofen-10
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#2
by
beidou
on 15 Aug, 2016 20:33
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#3
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 24 Aug, 2016 13:17
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Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)
A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.
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#4
by
input~2
on 24 Aug, 2016 16:21
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Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)
A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016
Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.
Well, this fairing drop zone (in red) seems close to the fairing drop zone for CZ-4C used for FY-3B (in green)
Fairing for CZ-2C (used for YG-18) was recovered to the South
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#5
by
russianhalo117
on 24 Aug, 2016 19:28
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Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)
A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016
Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.
Well, this fairing drop zone (in red) seems close to the fairing drop zone for CZ-4C used for FY-3B (in green)
Fairing for CZ-2C (used for YG-18) was recovered to the South
red?? it looks brown to me
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#6
by
tehwkd
on 26 Aug, 2016 07:57
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OOh, pretty colors!
YELLOW GF10/?
GREEN GF8/4b
PURPLE YG-14/4b
BLUE GF-3/4c
OLIVE FY-3b/4c
BLACK FY-3C/4c
RED Chuang Xin-3, Shiyan-7 and Shijian-15/4c
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#7
by
input~2
on 26 Aug, 2016 09:14
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Thanks tehwkd, so apparently it looks more like 4C that 4B...
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#8
by
tehwkd
on 29 Aug, 2016 03:26
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A2189/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 31 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 31 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 29 AUG 03:08 2016
Looks like date change, coordbox&time are same as old
Also, I'm guessing T-0 is closer to 1853 UTC because GF-3, FY-3C & Chuang Xin-3 that all launched on 4C had a 7ish min difference between notam start & T-0.
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#9
by
Satori
on 29 Aug, 2016 19:43
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Any idea of what kind of bird this might be?
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#10
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 31 Aug, 2016 17:01
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With the launch time at around 3 am here I can't guarantee that I can be awake at launch time, so someone please take a look at the usual Chinese news websites after 19:30 UTC if you can.
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#11
by
Chris Bergin
on 31 Aug, 2016 17:05
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With the launch time at around 3 am here I can't guarantee that I can be awake at launch time, so someone please take a look at the usual Chinese news websites after 19:30 UTC if you can.
No sleep till MECO, GP!
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#12
by
input~2
on 31 Aug, 2016 18:40
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The new generation TTC ship Yuanwang is standing by for operation
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#13
by
Satori
on 31 Aug, 2016 18:57
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We are now waiting from news coming from Taiyuan....
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#14
by
Satori
on 31 Aug, 2016 20:51
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Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.
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#15
by
Chris Bergin
on 31 Aug, 2016 21:24
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Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.
Wonder if it got delayed. No locals talking about Earthquakes I take it? That's usually a sign
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#16
by
Nordren
on 31 Aug, 2016 21:32
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Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.
Wonder if it got delayed. No locals talking about Earthquakes I take it? That's usually a sign
Nowt on Weibo. And Xichang is the one that's good value for startled locals
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#17
by
jcm
on 31 Aug, 2016 22:29
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... and no new launches in the TLEs, at least so far.
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#18
by
Satori
on 31 Aug, 2016 23:39
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On 9ifly space forum, people are talking about some kind of problem with the rocket. But it looks like there was no launch. Automatic translation doesn't help much in this case.
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#19
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 31 Aug, 2016 23:41
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On 9ifly space forum, people are talking about some kind of problem with the rocket. But it looks like there was no launch. Automatic translation doesn't help much in this case.
All are speculations and not rumors. I doubt we will know whatever happened to it until those who know speaks out.
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#20
by
Satori
on 31 Aug, 2016 23:41
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It looks like the launch was delayed (because of some problem with the launcher?)
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#21
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 01 Sep, 2016 01:23
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Checking Weibo, one insider has just posted several tweets that indicated that
something has happened to this launch, but it's not clear whether that means a scrub or failed en route. Either way, this launch isn't our imagination.
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#22
by
tehwkd
on 01 Sep, 2016 05:59
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From 9ifly:
Shaanxi Public Security
7 minutes ago from 360 secure browser
# # [Shaanxi security satellite wreckage recovered] September 1, issued by a satellite launch base in the territory of the County of Shangluo Mountain satellite fall, Hill County Public Security Bureau verses Paul Squadron accompanied the launch base personnel to do the work of recovery of satellite wreckage, climb slopes the successful completion of satellite wreckage recovery tasks.
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#23
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 01 Sep, 2016 06:05
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From 9ifly:
Shaanxi Public Security
7 minutes ago from 360 secure browser
# # [Shaanxi security satellite wreckage recovered] September 1, issued by a satellite launch base in the territory of the County of Shangluo Mountain satellite fall, Hill County Public Security Bureau verses Paul Squadron accompanied the launch base personnel to do the work of recovery of satellite wreckage, climb slopes the successful completion of satellite wreckage recovery tasks.
So it is apparent that the launch did took place.....
No signs of any new things in orbit?
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#24
by
tehwkd
on 01 Sep, 2016 06:08
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#25
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 06:15
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No TLEs published so far
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#26
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 01 Sep, 2016 06:31
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#27
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 06:31
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The location of debris recovery in Shanyang county is coherent with CZ-4C 1st stage debris
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#28
by
Satori
on 01 Sep, 2016 07:06
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No TLEs and no launch announcement... Looks like the first launch failure of 2016.
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#29
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 01 Sep, 2016 08:05
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No TLEs and no launch announcement... Looks like the first launch failure of 2016.
....and half a day later it seems like the Chinese simply swept it under the rug as if nothing has happened (in 2009/11/13 they at least did acknowledge within 7 hours). That's very bad precedence......
Remember anything else other than a third stage problem will directly impact TG-2 and SZ-11's schedule, just like what happened 5 years ago. They will have to explain later anyway so why?
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#30
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 08:17
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Doesn't seem to have been a 1st stage problem since the debris were recovered where they were expected
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#31
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 01 Sep, 2016 09:55
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#32
by
astropl
on 01 Sep, 2016 10:00
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#33
by
linxiaoyi
on 01 Sep, 2016 10:04
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#34
by
linxiaoyi
on 01 Sep, 2016 10:15
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still no official announcement
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#35
by
Chris Bergin
on 01 Sep, 2016 10:19
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Wow. And still no official word from State Media?
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#36
by
Chris Bergin
on 01 Sep, 2016 10:33
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#37
by
linxiaoyi
on 01 Sep, 2016 11:30
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#38
by
linxiaoyi
on 01 Sep, 2016 11:36
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There are some rumors, YF40 restart failed
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#39
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 12:18
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Doesn't seem to have been a 1st stage problem since the debris were recovered where they were expected
Looking closer, there is a minimum distance of 18 km between Shanyang county (where this CZ-4C 1st stage debris were recovered) and locations where 1st stages for past successful CZ-4C launches where recovered (i.e. YZ-15 & YG-27)
Not sure if this is significant...
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#40
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 12:36
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#41
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 12:38
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Expected launch mission codename was 05-53
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#42
by
input~2
on 01 Sep, 2016 13:50
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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm
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#43
by
edkyle99
on 01 Sep, 2016 16:37
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This apparent failure would end a string of 65 consecutive orbital launch successes world-wide since early December, 2015. The previous long success string was 69 successes during 1988-89, as best I can determine.
That explosion at Cape Canaveral this morning also served notice that success remains fleeting in this business.
- Ed Kyle
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#44
by
JimO
on 01 Sep, 2016 21:57
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#45
by
JimO
on 01 Sep, 2016 22:09
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I'm not sure what's the source, or whether the photos on that page are from this launch.
Very prudent skepticism!
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#46
by
William Graham
on 01 Sep, 2016 23:12
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This apparent failure would end a string of 65 consecutive orbital launch successes world-wide since early December, 2015. The previous long success string was 69 successes during 1988-89, as best I can determine.
That explosion at Cape Canaveral this morning also served notice that success remains fleeting in this business.
- Ed Kyle
There are two caveats on that string of successes: The North Korean launch earlier this year was reported to have underperformed and left the payload tumbling; and I'm not sure it was conclusively confirmed that the Iranian launch in April was a suborbital test and not a failed orbital attempt (although the former does seem far more likely).
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#47
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 02 Sep, 2016 01:17
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30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......
I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever.
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#48
by
Chris Bergin
on 02 Sep, 2016 13:04
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30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......
I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever.
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#49
by
pippin
on 02 Sep, 2016 13:28
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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm
So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
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#50
by
edkyle99
on 02 Sep, 2016 14:04
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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm
So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones.
- Ed Kyle
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#51
by
pippin
on 02 Sep, 2016 15:10
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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm
So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones.
- Ed Kyle
Wonder how well that works...
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#52
by
luhai167
on 02 Sep, 2016 21:01
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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm
So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones.
- Ed Kyle
Wonder how well that works...
Well, that's problem with launching in China. People are everyone, when in places like the forest area near Shengjiaba where there is less people than the plains, but still lots of people compared to most countries. debris are bound to hit towns and villages once in a while. Which is why the space in Hainan was built.
30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......
I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever.
Personally, I think it because even they are not sure exactly what happened, at least not enough to work out who to blame for it yet. Unlike the Brazil case, there is no external customer and the payload has possible military uses, so it better to keep things under the wrap than draw attention to it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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#53
by
Chris Bergin
on 05 Sep, 2016 12:57
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
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#54
by
Alter Sachse
on 05 Sep, 2016 20:35
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There was an official message about SJ 11-04 failure 18.08.2011 ?
Day after launch ?
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#55
by
luhai167
on 05 Sep, 2016 21:43
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#56
by
Alter Sachse
on 06 Sep, 2016 05:57
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#57
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 06 Sep, 2016 15:03
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
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#58
by
Star One
on 07 Sep, 2016 00:54
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#59
by
edkyle99
on 07 Sep, 2016 01:07
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#60
by
russianhalo117
on 07 Sep, 2016 04:15
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Hey look we've made the tech news sites.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/06/china_silent_on_loss_of_gaofen_civilian_spy_sat/
Is it true that the images of drop zone debris have been removed by Chinese authorities? I still see them on some of the web pages cited in this thread.
- Ed Kyle
some of them appear to have been replaced with other images potentially not from this flight. USSTRATCOM has yet to find anything in orbit so far and others believe that it did not make a return to sender orbit either.
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#61
by
luhai167
on 07 Sep, 2016 08:11
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Hey look we've made the tech news sites.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/06/china_silent_on_loss_of_gaofen_civilian_spy_sat/
Is it true that the images of drop zone debris have been removed by Chinese authorities? I still see them on some of the web pages cited in this thread.
- Ed Kyle
some of them appear to have been replaced with other images potentially not from this flight. USSTRATCOM has yet to find anything in orbit so far and others believe that it did not make a return to sender orbit either.
I have not seen any removal of news about 1st stage recovery, as for sites using random images from other launch es. that practice is very common in news media, since all rocket debris look the same to the average journalist and general public.
Sent from my SGH-T999 using Tapatalk
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#62
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 07 Sep, 2016 16:57
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....
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#63
by
Sam Ho
on 13 Sep, 2016 18:29
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....
Peter B de Selding, quoting China Great Wall, seems to confirm it was a third stage problem:
China Great Wall Industry: Long March 4C failure Sept 1 was isolated to stage only used on 4C, so other Long March variants unaffected.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/775717510972858369
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#64
by
sanman
on 14 Sep, 2016 03:32
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No chance it's a stealth payload, right?
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#65
by
russianhalo117
on 14 Sep, 2016 04:28
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No chance it's a stealth payload, right?
no just the usual civil satellite that is used by the Ministry of Defense and other ministries. Afterall some of the GF satellites are used to track the movements of the 200 and increasing number of US Naval vessels being moved to operate round the clock in the South China Sea as an escalation of allied forces.
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#66
by
limen4
on 30 Oct, 2016 16:39
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I am not sure if the image shows indeed GF-10.
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#67
by
Skyrocket
on 30 Oct, 2016 17:39
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I am not sure if the image shows indeed GF-10.
What does the cover say, what it is?
Looks indeed new to me and appears not not to be a reuse of another satellite image previously shown on a cover.
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#68
by
input~2
on 30 Oct, 2016 19:34
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The orange text says: "Gaofen-10 satellite launch commemoration"
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#69
by
limen4
on 30 Oct, 2016 21:05
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... and the black rectangular postmark is saying that the launch was not succesfull due to a rocket failure.
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#70
by
jcm
on 31 Dec, 2016 04:45
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....
I know that LM-4C can restart its 3rd stage, but I thought that was mainly for depletion - do we know the detailed
launch profile of the 4C with the usual times of the burns?
I was under the impression that it mainly followed the old 4B profile with coast to stage 2 apogee and a single
insertion burn.
Oh, and any new news on this failure since October?
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#71
by
Galactic Penguin SST
on 31 Dec, 2016 05:51
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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.
I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....
I know that LM-4C can restart its 3rd stage, but I thought that was mainly for depletion - do we know the detailed
launch profile of the 4C with the usual times of the burns?
I was under the impression that it mainly followed the old 4B profile with coast to stage 2 apogee and a single
insertion burn.
Oh, and any new news on this failure since October?
Hmm I don't think so - you can find a timeline for the FY-3C launch in the post below and the time stamps were given as follows:
The projected times of the different launch phases are visible in this picture (posted on the 9ifly Chinese space forum).
2nd stage separation: T+04:54
3rd stage shutdown #1: T+09:59
3rd stage re-ignition: T+19:09
Spacecraft separation: T+20:36
Also you can see below that the performance graph to SSO for the CZ-4 series - the 4B curve falls out much faster than the 4C one as altitude increases. I doubt that using the re-ignition just for de-orbiting the third stage would result in such a difference.
Unfortunately I don't see anything announced yet since October - maybe we will see some news when it returns to service
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#72
by
jcm
on 31 Dec, 2016 19:00
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Thanks. I had those FY3C timings in my archive but had forgotten about them. Convincing.
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#73
by
SmallKing
on 15 Jul, 2017 10:16
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Today some PDF images(with unknown source so far, sorry I can't find the full PDF) about GF-10 circulates on Chinese Weibo, which indicates the GF-10 satellite was a 0.5m resolution SAR satellite(maybe YG-29 series?)
GF-10 SAR卫星的精度验证
条带模式无控平面精度优于3米
聚束模式无控平面精度优于1.5米
可生成干涉图像
立体精度满足1:10000测图精度
