POLL: When will the first Red Dragon mission be launched to Mars?

[redliox]

With a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.

2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.

I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018.  One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need  life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts.  Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.

[Barrie]

With a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.

2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.

I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018.  One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need  life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts.  Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.

Yes, I can't see them not putting together an EDL test in time, even if it only delivers a tin of Spam for the Vikings.  They shouldn't be afraid of embarrassment, as any failure at Mars probably wouldn't produce any newsworthy footage, but success would.

[kch]

With a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.

2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.

I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018.  One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need  life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts.  Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.

Yes, I can't see them not putting together an EDL test in time, even if it only delivers a tin of Spam for the Vikings.  They shouldn't be afraid of embarrassment, as any failure at Mars probably wouldn't produce any newsworthy footage, but success would.

That'd get them singing! 

[Lar]

Well, there's this poll:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37233.0

Reporting my own post to the Mods...

Different (although similar) polls, my own personal opinion would be to leave them both (but I encourage the poll starters to crosslink by giving links to the other poll in their first post)

(mod hat off)

For this one, I voted 2020, I think Robotbeat's assessment that there is a 40% chance of 2018 is pretty accurate. I usually go pretty optimistic so I'm surprised I went this way. Hope I'm wrong and it goes in 2018...

[TaurusLittrow]

2018, at about 70%.

I find it difficult to believe that FH and Dragon 2 won't be flying at that point.  So on the grounds that "something" is better than "nothing" I think they'll throw one in the right direction with as much on board as they are able to have ready.  Now, I'd give them low odds of being able to do much useful with it other than EDL (ISRU testing is out until 20), but EDL by itself is valuable enough that the only thing I see holding them back is their ablility to manufacture Dragons quickly enough.

Exactly. Red Dragon will be a substantially unmodified Dragon 2 vehicle and Falcon Heavy will have already flown. The 2018 window will drive the SpaceX team...maybe to exhaustion and some early coronaries. But there's a fair chance they'll make it. Don't expect the Hawthorne parking lot to empty at 5 pm. Like Apollo.

[arachnitect]

2022.

I could see 2020 happening, but I'd wager the chances of 2018 at something like 12 to 1 against.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Why is two years enough for the project to evolve that much? Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?

Ok you got me, 'maximise' was the wrong word.

My opinion is simply that FH will be ready in 2017 & I think commercial crew with Dragon 2 will start at some point in 2018. But I think Red Dragon being ready for launch in the 2018 window is too tight. Another 26 months feels enough to me for Elon to be happy to launch in 2020.

[Dalhousie]

I'd like to think 2020 is realistic, but given the delays to everything else..

Falcon Heavy 5 years and counting...
Reusable Dragon 7 years and counting...
Crewed Dragon 8 years and counting...
Falcon 9 reuse 11 years and counting...

I'll go for 2022

[Endeavour_01]

I went a bit pessimistic and voted 2022. I think 2018 is highly unlikely given that both FH and Dragon 2 have yet to fly with FH having a payload backlog and most of the Dragon 2 resources going to commercial crew. 2020 is more achievable but with all the other things SpaceX will be trying to achieve, the short launch window, and the SpaceX time dilation factor I erred on the side of caution.

[Proponent]

I'm with Dalhousie and Endeavour_01: 2022.

[jongoff]

We're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.

~Jon

[Comga]

We're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.

~Jon

Looked at another way, 90% believe that it will be before 2022. 
That is, either 2018 as announced, only two years away, or a single slip to 2020
That is high confidence.
Or Kool-aid drinking
Time will tell

[billh]

We're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.

~Jon

Looked at another way, 90% believe that it will be before 2022. 
That is, either 2018 as announced, only two years away, or a single slip to 2020
That is high confidence.
Or Kool-aid drinking
Time will tell

Yep. I took a long draught of the Kool-Aid and voted 2020.

[high road]

I originally thought 2020 was more realistic, but considering they still have to launch and mature Falcon Heavy, get Dragon v2 flying and human rated, relaunch first stages and Dragons (this pays the bills, so I think they're going to devote a lot of their efforts to these projects while simultaneously workin on Red Dragon), I'm going for 2022.

[RonM]

I think SpaceX has a pretty good chance of launching Red Dragon in 2018. They have been discussing this for years, so SpaceX may have been working on this for quite some time. It is an EDL test. No need to develop a complex science package. While that would be nice, developing a science package takes time and would push the mission back years. A simple weather station and some cheap cameras would do.

If SpaceX wants to land people on Mars in the next decade, they need to get testing done ASAP.

[QuantumG]

I wonder if there's any hope that September's announcement will be about the short term plan as well as the long term. Most of us tend to think Elon is designing the "exploration" architecture to be a subset of the colonization architecture - but what if there's a plan for a Dragon + Hab precursor?

[Coastal Ron]

I voted 2018, mainly because sometimes I'm an irrational optimist...   

But I won't be disappointed if it's after 2018.

[abaddon]

Voted 2020.  2018 is possible, but everything has to go right for it to happen.  More realistically I expect slips in the Crew Dragon schedule and that SpaceX will be too busy with that effort to spend enough time on Red Dragon to make it worthwhile.  It doesn't help that the end of the 2018 window is in May...

[Paul451]

Voted 2020.

But to argue against myself, Red Dragon is actually simpler than Dragon-Crew. They already have everything they need for a Mars landing, provided FH is reliable by 2018, the rest is just proving the thrusters can operate after long-duration exposure, and proving the radiation shielding of the control systems, and proving that is Red Dragon. So the hold-up I'm picturing isn't any technical development, but simply that there are so many other things on their books, there just aren't enough hours in the day between now and 2018.

[Beyond 2022, I can't see them bothering with Dragon to Mars. With a launch date for BFR in the mid-2020s, they'd have at least locked down the main design for BFS by 2024, even allowing for Elon-time. If they haven't launched Red Dragon in 2022, they'd drop it and plan for a BFS test-flight to Mars in 2026 or 2028/29.]

Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?

Uh... yeah.

[Comga]

Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?

Uh... yeah.

sdsds: Google "synodic period" and "Hohmann transfer"