SpaceX F9 : Nusantara Satu (PSN VI)/GTO-1/SpaceIL : Feb. 21/22, 2019: Discussion

[gongora]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

It doesn't help that SpaceIL themselves have stated at various times that they would be flying to sun-sync and at other times that they were going to super-sync. The latter appears to be the current plan.

SpaceIL was never going to SSO, even when other payloads on their scheduled flight were going there.  There would have been another engine burn.

[TrevorMonty]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

It doesn't help that SpaceIL themselves have stated at various times that they would be flying to sun-sync and at other times that they were going to super-sync. The latter appears to be the current plan.

Their video that was included in article on this mission  had them going to 500km Sun Sync from Vandenburg. We know for this mission they aren't launching from Vandenburg.

The journalist didn't do their homework, should've watch video first before including it. Thats assuming they understood differences between SSO and GTO.

[russianhalo117]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

It doesn't help that SpaceIL themselves have stated at various times that they would be flying to sun-sync and at other times that they were going to super-sync. The latter appears to be the current plan.

Their video that was included in article on this mission  had them going to 500km Sun Sync from Vandenburg. We know for this mission they aren't launching from Vandenburg.

The journalist didn't do their homework, should've watch video first before including it. Thats assuming they understood differences between SSO and GTO.

Correct they are flying a different launch profile and from a different pad (SLC-40). The video left several details out of the old launch profile.

[russianhalo117]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

PSN-6 seems to be the only launch that fitst the criteria (Falcon 9 from Canaveral in December).

Current entry on US NSF Schedule:
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40

PSN-VI Possibilities:
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40

The reports on the government secondary payload said it would be carried to orbit by PSN VI, so I don't think option 3 is likely.  If it does end up being with PSN VI then I'd guess option 2 is most likely.

Per a friend the below listed Israeli Payload has been cited in Israel as the most likely potential communications payload. It is possible as it is listed NET late December 2018/very early 2019 on Israeli forums. Per our NSF US Launch schedule it is currently listed as:
2019:
Early - Amos 17 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Q2)

[scr00chy]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

PSN-6 seems to be the only launch that fitst the criteria (Falcon 9 from Canaveral in December).

Current entry on US NSF Schedule:
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40

PSN-VI Possibilities:
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
Q4 - PSN-6 (Pasifik Satelit Nusantara 6), U.S. government satellite, SpaceIL Moon Lander - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40

The reports on the government secondary payload said it would be carried to orbit by PSN VI, so I don't think option 3 is likely.  If it does end up being with PSN VI then I'd guess option 2 is most likely.

Per a friend the below listed Israeli Payload has been cited in Israel as the most likely potential communications payload. It is possible as it is listed NET late December 2018/very early 2019 on Israeli forums. Per our NSF US Launch schedule it is currently listed as:
2019:
Early - Amos 17 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Q2)

Seems unlikely to me. Amos-17 has been scheduled for Q2 2019 from the start (the initial 2017 announcement stated this planned date).

[crandles57]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

Seems unlikely to me. Amos-17 has been scheduled for Q2 2019 from the start (the initial 2017 announcement stated this planned date).

http://amos-spacecom.com/press/spacecoms-amos-17-satellite-successfully-completes-critical-design-review-cdr/

is the only 2017 press release I have found and that says early 2019 rather than Q2.

http://amos-spacecom.com/satellite/amos-17/
does say Q2 but not idea if or when this was changed.

[scr00chy]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

See here

[OccasionalTraveller]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

The AMOS-17 thread has press release quotes. They initially just state 2019, but the Critical Design Review completion press release says Early 2019. The most recent press release, from March, says Q2.

It's unlikely that this will move to the left. A two-year lead time seems actually quite fast for satellite production. They do tend to slip. Boeing have never completed a 702 satellite in under two years - their fastest was SES 15 (on the 702SP platform) in 27 months from order to launch.

A further piece of data is that Gunter's Space Page cites a mass of 5500kg for AMOS-17. That would actually make it one of the lightest satellites built on the BSS-702MP platform. Most have been over 6 metric tonnes, and the only one so far to fly on Falcon 9 - Intelsat 35e - expended the booster.

It may be that the figure given by Gunter is simply the maximum listed payload for reusable F9 (or at least the maximum payload for $62m, which is widely assumed to be the maximum reusable payload to GTO-1800). This launch is free due to the AMOS-6 accident, but I can't see them replacing a reusable F9 launch with an expendable or a Heavy. AMOS-6 was supposedly 5250kg, Boeing list the 702MP as massing 5800 to 6100kg at launch.

I'm not quite sure where he's getting BSS-702MP from - Boeing simply say '702' without specifying the variant. The listed power of 8.5kW is too high for the SP variant but lower than HP. One of the releases also says chemical propulsion will be used, and SP only offers all-electric propulsion, so it probably is the MP version, by process of deduction.

The standard lifetime offered is 15 years. The CDR press release indicates an expected life of 19 years. Extra station-keeping fuel would only add to the launch mass.

SpaceX have launched heavier payloads and still landed the booster, but only to sub-synchronous orbits (apogee lower than geosynchronous altitude, greater than 1800 m/s of Delta-V required to circularise at geosynchronous and to zero the inclination). In this situation, the satellite has to carry a higher proportion of fuel. That doesn't square with SpaceIL's need to be deployed into a super-synchronous orbit - if the second stage can't make it to the usual GTO altitude for the primary payload, it won't have fuel to raise the apogee for a secondary payload.

[Phil Stooke]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

"By the way, best of luck to SpaceIL on the landing attempt, but they'll need India to fail with Chandrayan 2 this October in order to be fourth, otherwise Israel will end up fifth if India succeeds."

The Chandrayaan 2 thread right now suggests that Chandrayaan 2 might be delayed past the end of this year, so fourth might still be correct without a failed C2 landing.

[Comga]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

See here

For those who don't or can't look thru to that Twitter link it is verifying that the launch of Amos 17 is now scheduled for a three month window in Q2 2019, so well after the announced launch of SpaceIL's moon lander.

[gongora]

http://ekbis.harianjogja.com/read/2018/07/04/502/926064/satelit-psn-6-siap-meluncur-jadi-solusi-internet-cepat

04 Juli 2018 19:30 WIB

Harianjogja.com, JAKARTA—Satelit PSN 6 milik PT Pasifik Satelit Nusantara siap meluncur pada Desember 2018.

Google translate:

04 July 2018 19:30 WIB

Harianjogja.com, JAKARTA - Nusantara's PSN 6 Satellite is ready to launch in December 2018.

[crandles57]

Dec 2018 would seem to match with SpaceIL Sparrow moon hopper planned launch date. Makes this combination likely ?

[crandles57]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

http://ekbis.harianjogja.com/read/2018/07/04/502/926064/satelit-psn-6-siap-meluncur-jadi-solusi-internet-cepat

04 Juli 2018 19:30 WIB

Harianjogja.com, JAKARTA—Satelit PSN 6 milik PT Pasifik Satelit Nusantara siap meluncur pada Desember 2018.

Google translate:

04 July 2018 19:30 WIB

Harianjogja.com, JAKARTA - Nusantara's PSN 6 Satellite is ready to launch in December 2018.

If Dec 2018 matches, makes that (even more) favourite I would think.

[gongora]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

I'd love to see clear information on the payload stack and orbit for this.  If it's on PSN-6 then I have doubts about whether it's going to 60k apogee, maybe that is old information.

[russianhalo117]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

I'd love to see clear information on the payload stack and orbit for this.  If it's on PSN-6 then I have doubts about whether it's going to 60k apogee, maybe that is old information.

Maybe we request an L2 clarification with the SpaceX and possibly IAI (building it and AFAIU contracted the rideshare launch) folks to first verify the press didn't get there SpaceX launchers mixed up and second to verify whom it's launching with and its launch profile. It's a lot to ask for but it might get us closer to what we are seeking.

[Phil Stooke]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

Jeff Foust
‏ @jeff_foust
2 hours ago  [6 August]

Spaceflight is preparing for a dedicated Falcon 9 launch this fall with 71 smallsats on board from a wide range of customers. “I think it’s going to change what people think is possible with rideshare,” says the company’s president.

Is this the SpaceIL launch?

[Alexphysics]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

No, it's the SSO-A launch from Vandenberg.

[scr00chy]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

Jeff Foust
‏ @jeff_foust
2 hours ago  [6 August]

Spaceflight is preparing for a dedicated Falcon 9 launch this fall with 71 smallsats on board from a wide range of customers. “I think it’s going to change what people think is possible with rideshare,” says the company’s president.

Is this the SpaceIL launch?

No, the SpaceIL press release said it would be launching from Florida. SSO-A launches from California.

[Olaf]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

https://www.spaceflightindustries.com/2018/09/11/spaceflight-offers-rideshare-launches-to-geosynchronous-transfer-orbit/

The first mission will launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 which was procured by SSL, a Maxar Technologies company. It will represent the two companies’ first combined launch and Spaceflight’s first mission beyond Lower Earth Orbit (LEO).

The manifest for this Falcon 9 GTO rideshare mission is completely full. It features several undisclosed payloads along with an unmanned lunar spacecraft from SpaceIL, an Israeli nonprofit organization that was competing in the Google Lunar XPrize to land a spacecraft on the Moon. The first rideshare satellites will separate in GTO and then the SSL host spacecraft will continue on to Geostationary Orbit (GEO) where the remaining rideshare satellites will be separated.

[russianhalo117]

[edit/gongora: originally posted in the SpaceIL temporary thread before we knew what launch it was on]

https://www.spaceflightindustries.com/2018/09/11/spaceflight-offers-rideshare-launches-to-geosynchronous-transfer-orbit/

The first mission will launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 which was procured by SSL, a Maxar Technologies company. It will represent the two companies’ first combined launch and Spaceflight’s first mission beyond Lower Earth Orbit (LEO).

The manifest for this Falcon 9 GTO rideshare mission is completely full. It features several undisclosed payloads along with an unmanned lunar spacecraft from SpaceIL, an Israeli nonprofit organization that was competing in the Google Lunar XPrize to land a spacecraft on the Moon. The first rideshare satellites will separate in GTO and then the SSL host spacecraft will continue on to Geostationary Orbit (GEO) where the remaining rideshare satellites will be separated.

So this is SI's which is this flight per the schedule:
2019:
NET Q1 - Spaceflight GTO - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40