Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM1 : Dec. 2018 : General Thread  (Read 115366 times)

Offline IntoTheVoid

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It’s not rushing, Chris
It’s minimizing wasted time.
And I am not advocating doing anything different with DM-1 than waiting to unpack it.
The only reason to do the unmanned test flights is to learn things about the system ahead of the crewed flights.  It will take time to digest whatever is observed and the Commercial Crew safety reviews have all taken longer than originally anticipated. Earlier launch buys more time.
ASAP puts the far end of the probable date range for certification past the end date for Soyuz availability. That’s pretty frightening and NASA should be doing what they can to buy extra time before then. Right now they are prioritizing HTV-7 over DM-1 and the path to Commercial Crew. Although there are a plethora of “moving parts” in the ISS program that need to mesh, I find that curious and concerning.

I am no one, but I agree with Comga, and possibly further.
I find these flight priorities shortsighted and concerning. All four commercial crew test flights are on the critical path for 0 ISS utilization in the USOC, until at least one of the providers is certified. Therefore these flights should have the highest priority other than those required for ISS crew safety. Given the typical ISS supply levels it is unlikely that any, but certainly not more than 1 of the supply flights are schedule critical.
Not sure what you mean by interesting priorities.  Are you saying an uncrewed test flight carrying minimal supplies to ISS should take precedent over a needed crew rotation and a needed and large-scale resupply and science delivery mission (HTV-7)?  If so, why?
I fully understand and am aware that Soyuz seats expire for the USOS in 2019.  But how is rushing and changing things last minute for only 1 provider's uncrewed test going to change that and future timelines?  NASA is saying there isn't time to do SpX DM-1 until November.  So what do you gain by launching early and "dock loitering"?  Nothing.

NASA not having time until November is evidence of the priorities and flows from it, it's not justification for those priorities. Spx DM-1 should not be rushed nor modified; it should be flown as soon as it is ready, without delay. If there is no time to unpack or re-pack it then send it empty. The purpose of this flight is not cargo delivery or return, if there's not time for cargo then don't send the cargo. Any delay to the uncrewed test flight(s) is a potential further delay to the crewed test flight(s) if anything is found, and delays to any of the test flights, delays necessary products to the certification process.
Until there is a certified US crewed launch provider, all delays to the commercial crew test program (SpaceX and Boeing) risk the evacuation of the USOC. The consequence of this is large enough, however unlikely, that this risk should be minimized. Even if every other ISS flight was delayed 2-4 weeks, reduced utilization and disrupted schedules are far better than evacuation and zero utilization, and that is what the current priorities risk, and why the CC flights should not be delayed. Not rushed, flown when ready, without delay.

Online Alexphysics

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People, NASA has one Progress on October 31st, a Cygnus in mid November and a Dragon by the end of November and STILL it has approved a Dragon 2 flight in that month. If you really think that ISS schedule is the ONLY thing that pushed DM-1 to November, you're probably wrong. HTV-7 is just ONE spacecraft and it will be there for 2 months. Compare that to THREE spacecraft arriving all in one month. ISS is clearly not the only thing that drove that move to November since NASA could have simply put DM-1 between the soyuz flight in October and the Progress flight at the end of October and that's not what has happened

Offline kdhilliard

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On yesterday's Off-Nominal podcast Episode 11 @27:30, Eric Berger talked about cornering Gwynne Shotwell immediately following Friday's Commercial Crew assignment ceremony:
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She was fired up.  She said, "You know, I've even got a date when we're going to launch in November."  That's how confident she was.  But she said, "They wouldn't let me tell that today."
Berger went on to say, "I think probably, if it happens, it would be in the last ten days of November or so."

Online gongora

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Another good Eric Berger article, this one describing the work left for SpaceX to do for CC:

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Here’s what SpaceX must do to win the commercial crew race
Demo test, abort test, finish COPVs, test fuel loading, and so on. It's a long list.

ERIC BERGER - 8/9/2018, 7:59 AM

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/heres-what-spacex-must-do-to-win-the-commercial-crew-race/

Edit to add: article includes status of Demo 1 hardware

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Lueders said the Block V variant of the Falcon 9 rocket first stage, as well as its upper stage, will soon ship from SpaceX’s factory in Hawthorne, California, to the company’s facilities in McGregor, Texas, for engine testing. Afterward, the rocket is scheduled to arrive at Florida’s Cape Canaveral in September. The company has also delivered the spacecraft to Florida, but they still need to finish the Dragon’s trunk for the mission and ship that.

Offline envy887

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Another good Eric Berger article, this one describing the work left for SpaceX to do for CC:

Quote
Here’s what SpaceX must do to win the commercial crew race
Demo test, abort test, finish COPVs, test fuel loading, and so on. It's a long list.

ERIC BERGER - 8/9/2018, 7:59 AM

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/heres-what-spacex-must-do-to-win-the-commercial-crew-race/

Edit to add: article includes status of Demo 1 hardware

Quote
Lueders said the Block V variant of the Falcon 9 rocket first stage, as well as its upper stage, will soon ship from SpaceX’s factory in Hawthorne, California, to the company’s facilities in McGregor, Texas, for engine testing. Afterward, the rocket is scheduled to arrive at Florida’s Cape Canaveral in September. The company has also delivered the spacecraft to Florida, but they still need to finish the Dragon’s trunk for the mission and ship that.

It also says

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“We have an agreement with SpaceX that they are going to take our launch vehicle configuration and run it through the actual crew-loading timeline to demonstrate consistency,” Lueders said. “It’s for us to get confidence on the crew-loading sequence.”

This means that the static fire and launch of the Demo-1 mission will follow fuel-loading procedures for crew missions, as will the static fire and launch of the in-flight abort mission. The fifth test will come during the static fire test of the Demo-2 flight.

So Berger is saying that all 5 loading tests will be on the DM-1, IFA test, and DM-2 vehicles, all in the crew configuration with Dragon.

Online Chris Bergin

FEATURE ARTICLE: SpaceX readies for installation of LC-39A Crew Access Arm, previews Crew Dragon -

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/08/spacex-installation-lc-39a-caa-previews-crew-dragon/

- By Chris Gebhardt
- Includes photos and footage from Jack Beyer

Offline mazen hesham

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DM-1 now NET late November according to Ben Cooper.
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Upcoming launches include the maiden flight of the Crew Dragon spacecraft on uncrewed
demonstration mission DM-1 to the International Space Station from pad 39A, as early as late
November.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Offline Eagandale4114

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DM-1 NET December according to Elon at the BFR moon passenger talk QA.

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