Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon Heavy : Arabsat 6A : LC-39A : April 11, 2019 - DISCUSSION (Read 308841 times)

joseph.a.navin · « **Reply #160 on:** 03/18/2019 12:58 pm »

when can we expect the static fire to occur, If the launch occurs on Apr 7th I would suspect that the static fire should occur quite soon.

scr00chy · « **Reply #161 on:** 03/18/2019 01:35 pm »

Quote from: joseph.a.navin on 03/18/2019 12:58 pm

when can we expect the static fire to occur, If the launch occurs on Apr 7th I would suspect that the static fire should occur quite soon.

Normally they conduct SF about 4 days prior to launch but since this is a first Block 5 FH, I think they'll do the SF a little earlier to give themselves additional time to resolve any potential issues found during the SF. So I'd say they'll aim for a date that's at least a week before planned launch. That's just my speculation, though.

pb2000 · « **Reply #162 on:** 03/18/2019 02:19 pm »

Quote from: joseph.a.navin on 03/18/2019 12:58 pm

when can we expect the static fire to occur, If the launch occurs on Apr 7th I would suspect that the static fire should occur quite soon.

I suggest checking out L2

aero1310 · « **Reply #163 on:** 03/20/2019 12:41 am »

Hey guys, been following this thread for awhile. If this is not the proper place for this question or comment I apologize. Do the leaked announcements usually line up with actual announcement? I've looked at a few launches in the past and the general timeline for official announcement seems to be about 10 days prior to launch. I have not seen anything about leaked time frames.

I ask this because I planned on flying home the 7th of April and I am now debating about extending the trip in hopes that I get to witness this launch. Not gunna lie, since watching the last FH launch I've been storing vacation for this very moment and it now just so happens to be on the tail end of my long Florida vacation. It'll be a cherry on top if it comes true.

Should I change my flights up and get an extra hotel night, or should I wait a little bit?

CorvusCorax · « **Reply #164 on:** 03/20/2019 10:46 am »

Quote from: aero1310 on 03/20/2019 12:41 am

Hey guys, been following this thread for awhile. If this is not the proper place for this question or comment I apologize. Do the leaked announcements usually line up with actual announcement? I've looked at a few launches in the past and the general timeline for official announcement seems to be about 10 days prior to launch. I have not seen anything about leaked time frames.

I ask this because I planned on flying home the 7th of April and I am now debating about extending the trip in hopes that I get to witness this launch. Not gunna lie, since watching the last FH launch I've been storing vacation for this very moment and it now just so happens to be on the tail end of my long Florida vacation. It'll be a cherry on top if it comes true.

Should I change my flights up and get an extra hotel night, or should I wait a little bit?

Assuming that a leak is genuine and not misinformation/misquoted guessing (Depending where it comes from they aren't always fully reliable, but NSF IMHO has a lot of reliable sources):

Generally leaks inform earlier if there is a problem or slip, even if it hasn't been officially announced. But the absence of such info doesn't mean that there isn't a slip.

The earlier in the timeline it is, the more uncertainty is in the timing. SpaceX and Range work to non-official internal dates before they get announced, but they are very NET (and in rare cases even move left).

Those can be leaked, but just because everyone is working towards a specific date a month before launch, doesn't mean this date will hold until the official announcement or launch itself. Stuff that forces them to realign launch dates happen all the time.

General rule of thumb, if you travel to a launch, book flights that you can easily change/rebook on short notice without having to pay extra. (Travel-insurance and such) Those are a bit more expensive, but the likelihood of slips is just so very high, its definitely gonna be worth it.

The closer to the launch-date you get, the less likely programmatic slips become (regardless of source), but of course a technical issue on the pad, a wayward boat(tm) or the always finicky weather can still make a launch slip even seconds from launch.

launches almost never end up being earlier and almost always slip to the right.

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #165 on:** 03/20/2019 02:04 pm »

Quote from: aero1310 on 03/20/2019 12:41 am

Hey guys, been following this thread for awhile. If this is not the proper place for this question or comment I apologize. Do the leaked announcements usually line up with actual announcement? I've looked at a few launches in the past and the general timeline for official announcement seems to be about 10 days prior to launch. I have not seen anything about leaked time frames.

I ask this because I planned on flying home the 7th of April and I am now debating about extending the trip in hopes that I get to witness this launch. Not gunna lie, since watching the last FH launch I've been storing vacation for this very moment and it now just so happens to be on the tail end of my long Florida vacation. It'll be a cherry on top if it comes true.

Should I change my flights up and get an extra hotel night, or should I wait a little bit?

I'm not sure what you mean by leak in this case. If you're asking if NET 7 April is the target launch date for ArabSat-6A, this site never posts an inaccurate launch date as we know the public relies on that information for travel. We also adjust and update the launch date in the public thread as soon as possible.

That said, a launch is always NET (No Earlier Than) until the vehicle lifts off the pad -- so the words of caution in the post above about never taking a launch date as solid and understanding that things can change rapidly (even in the last seconds of a count) is good advice..

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #166 on:** 03/20/2019 02:09 pm »

*PRELIMINARY* (Dates are "PENDING", but now on the Range):
Static Fire: NET March 31.
Launch: NET: April 7 - Window: 22:36 UTC to 00:35 UTC.
39A T/E Rollback is the next milestone.

ChrisGebhardt · « **Reply #167 on:** 03/20/2019 06:35 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 03/20/2019 02:09 pm

*PRELIMINARY* (Dates are "PENDING", but now on the Range):
Static Fire: NET March 31.
Launch: NET: April 7 - Window: 22:36 UTC to 00:35 UTC.
39A T/E Rollback is the next milestone.

Local window on 7 April is 18:36-20:35 EDT. Sunset that day is 19:44 EDT.

aero1310 · « **Reply #168 on:** 03/20/2019 10:45 pm »

Quote from: CorvusCorax on 03/20/2019 10:46 am

Quote from: aero1310 on 03/20/2019 12:41 am
Hey guys, been following this thread for awhile. If this is not the proper place for this question or comment I apologize. Do the leaked announcements usually line up with actual announcement? I've looked at a few launches in the past and the general timeline for official announcement seems to be about 10 days prior to launch. I have not seen anything about leaked time frames.

I ask this because I planned on flying home the 7th of April and I am now debating about extending the trip in hopes that I get to witness this launch. Not gunna lie, since watching the last FH launch I've been storing vacation for this very moment and it now just so happens to be on the tail end of my long Florida vacation. It'll be a cherry on top if it comes true.

Should I change my flights up and get an extra hotel night, or should I wait a little bit?

Assuming that a leak is genuine and not misinformation/misquoted guessing (Depending where it comes from they aren't always fully reliable, but NSF IMHO has a lot of reliable sources):

Generally leaks inform earlier if there is a problem or slip, even if it hasn't been officially announced. But the absence of such info doesn't mean that there isn't a slip.

The earlier in the timeline it is, the more uncertainty is in the timing. SpaceX and Range work to non-official internal dates before they get announced, but they are very NET (and in rare cases even move left).

Those can be leaked, but just because everyone is working towards a specific date a month before launch, doesn't mean this date will hold until the official announcement or launch itself. Stuff that forces them to realign launch dates happen all the time.

General rule of thumb, if you travel to a launch, book flights that you can easily change/rebook on short notice without having to pay extra. (Travel-insurance and such) Those are a bit more expensive, but the likelihood of slips is just so very high, its definitely gonna be worth it.

The closer to the launch-date you get, the less likely programmatic slips become (regardless of source), but of course a technical issue on the pad, a wayward boat(tm) or the always finicky weather can still make a launch slip even seconds from launch.

launches almost never end up being earlier and almost always slip to the right.

Thank you for all the info, it is very helpful. I never thought of using the travel insurance lol. I always understood that launches have a lot of variables and things can change everyday. It's when the dates get closer to being real, I really wanted to know how solid the source (leaked) info is, and when can I feel comfortable betting my money and vacation time. Since NET Apr 7th is at the tail end of my trip, I will just wait till the official announcement to make any changes.

ChrisC · « **Reply #169 on:** 03/21/2019 03:04 am »

Spend $20 on a short L2 subscription and you'll know before nearly everyone else, sometimes a week or more before.

Ask me how I knew to rebook my own Florida travel plans 11 days ago. No, wait, don't ask, I can't answer!

Roy_H · « **Reply #170 on:** 03/21/2019 03:58 am »

Quote from: aero1310 on 03/20/2019 10:45 pm

Thank you for all the info, it is very helpful. I never thought of using the travel insurance lol.

No. Travel insurance does not cover changes in itinerary. Basically the only way to collect flight insurance is if you get in an accident on the way to the airport, and you have to prove you couldn't make the flight with a doctor's report. If you pay full fare there are flexible plans available, talk to your flight agent or airline company.

CorvusCorax · « **Reply #171 on:** 03/21/2019 01:02 pm »

Quote from: Roy_H on 03/21/2019 03:58 am

Quote from: aero1310 on 03/20/2019 10:45 pm
Thank you for all the info, it is very helpful. I never thought of using the travel insurance lol.

No. Travel insurance does not cover changes in itinerary. Basically the only way to collect flight insurance is if you get in an accident on the way to the airport, and you have to prove you couldn't make the flight with a doctor's report. If you pay full fare there are flexible plans available, talk to your flight agent or airline company.

If you book through a travel agency instead of online - although mre expensive - they usually do have more options to make late flight/booking changes. are there any travel agencies specialized in space launch visits?

if not, that might be a nice business opportunity. you could book flights for launch X, and the agency would change your booking (both flight & hotel) automatically to adjust to delays/scrubs/etc...

Lotsa Space · « **Reply #172 on:** 03/21/2019 01:08 pm »

Viewing packages are now up for sale at KSC Visitor Center ! Woot! Woot!

copper8 · « **Reply #173 on:** 03/21/2019 01:21 pm »

Quote from: Lotsa Space on 03/21/2019 01:08 pm

Viewing packages are now up for sale at KSC Visitor Center ! Woot! Woot!

Pardon my ignorance, but what do these 'viewing packages' include?

Zakrah · « **Reply #174 on:** 03/21/2019 01:24 pm »

Quote from: copper8 on 03/21/2019 01:21 pm

Quote from: Lotsa Space on 03/21/2019 01:08 pm
Viewing packages are now up for sale at KSC Visitor Center ! Woot! Woot!
Pardon my ignorance, but what do these 'viewing packages' include?

https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2019/april/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-heavy-arabsat-6a

pb2000 · « **Reply #175 on:** 03/21/2019 02:09 pm »

Quote from: Zakrah on 03/21/2019 01:24 pm

Quote from: copper8 on 03/21/2019 01:21 pm
Quote from: Lotsa Space on 03/21/2019 01:08 pm
Viewing packages are now up for sale at KSC Visitor Center ! Woot! Woot!
Pardon my ignorance, but what do these 'viewing packages' include?
https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2019/april/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-heavy-arabsat-6a

[Polite Jim 3000]The KSC Visitor's Center[/Polite Jim 3000] won't ship the placards to international address', preventing launch viewing purchases outright. Anybody have a way around this?

bjornl · « **Reply #176 on:** 03/21/2019 02:27 pm »

Have them ship to your hotel?

pb2000 · « **Reply #177 on:** 03/21/2019 02:35 pm »

Quote from: bjornl on 03/21/2019 02:27 pm

Have them ship to your hotel?

That's one of the options I'm looking at, but I was really hoping to book flights and hotels after the static fire.

c · « **Reply #178 on:** 03/21/2019 03:02 pm »

FEEL THE HEAT!
NET 2019-04-07

Tickets HERE.

c · « **Reply #179 on:** 03/21/2019 03:18 pm »

Quote from: pb2000 on 03/21/2019 02:35 pm

Quote from: bjornl on 03/21/2019 02:27 pm
Have them ship to your hotel?
That's one of the options I'm looking at, but I was really hoping to book flights and hotels after the static fire.

Hello PB2000 - At last year's Heavy launch we had several NSF'ers with the same problem. Since I'm local to the area (New Smyrna Beach) some of the users here had their launch packages shipped to me. We met up at the NSF get-together the night before the launch.

I'd be more than happy to help out!

Chris M (yeah, there's a lot of Chris's here)