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#200
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 19:51
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Avron - 27/8/2006 3:32 PM
What is the weather forcast for tomorrow?
Good question...I think the folks with the 45th Weather Sqaudron and the Shuttle Weather Office must be especially busy with watching the hurricane data, as they haven't issued a public launch forecast today...I've seen conflicting media reports...
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#201
by
Avron
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:03
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Nuts I know.. but there is another option.. pickup the count at T-11 this evening, let the data people continue with the analysis, if at T-9 we dont have a good vehicle, Tuesday will not be on so its a run back to the VAB... We know based on the data thus far, we have a good vehicle, good tank and maybe, just maybe some issue with the SRB's... we also know that there is not enough time to fix any problem before we need to get going Tuesday want cna be tested in the current config should have been tested, I assume that the aft will need to be opened to do any further tests and we know there is no time for that...
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#202
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:14
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Avron - 27/8/2006 3:50 PM
Nuts I know.. but there is another option.. pickup the count at T-11 this evening, let the data people continue with the analysis, if at T-9 we dont have a good vehicle, Tuesday will not be on so its a run back to the VAB... We know based on the data thus far, we have a good vehicle, good tank and maybe, just maybe some issue with the SRB's... we also know that there is not enough time to fix any problem before we need to get going Tuesday want cna be tested in the current config should have been tested, I assume that the aft will need to be opened to do any further tests and we know there is no time for that...
Unless something fundamentally changes with Ernesto or its track, it doesn't sound like they'd have enough time to tank for an attempt tomorrow (Monday) -- if they scrub, that wouldn't get them to the VAB until Thursday and Ernesto is supposed to be nearby then.
Also, the people doing the data analysis might be needed to support the terminal count.
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#203
by
Austin
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:19
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Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
I know, I'm sorry to even bring it up.
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#204
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:29
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Austin - 27/8/2006 4:06 PM
Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
It would probably still depend on whether those storms west of the SLF are far enough west that they would be go and forecast go for RTLS...
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#205
by
rdale
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:32
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#206
by
Austin
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:37
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psloss - 27/8/2006 1:16 PM
Austin - 27/8/2006 4:06 PM
Dare I even mention, that the weather at the Cape would have been lovely for the originally scheduled launch time of 4:30 (about 25 minutes from now).
It would probably still depend on whether those storms west of the SLF are far enough west that they would be go and forecast go for RTLS...
True indeed. But based on the current distance between that band and the SLF, I think they would've given the green light.
...And I know Zach -- I'm sorry bring it up.
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#207
by
Austin
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:39
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rdale - 27/8/2006 1:19 PM
Mon/Tue still look fine.
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/WeeklyFcst.pdf
I would hesitate to call today "lovely" today - there's a 40,000ft thunderstorm cell 17 miles west of the runway, so that'd be red for RTLS and no launch.
If the distance really is 17 miles, than you are right -- that would be a LCC violation.
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#208
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:39
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Austin - 27/8/2006 4:24 PM
True indeed. But based on the current distance between that band and the SLF, I think they would've given the green light.
17 nmi is less than the 20 nmi rule -- that's go...why?
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#209
by
Austin
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:42
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Sorry folks, I didn't mean to divert the thread. My fault. Let's focus on the current launch options.
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#210
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:56
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The NHC site right now says "Tropical Storm Ernesto," but no update/report there yet to corroborate...the 5 pm EDT advisory and forecast should be out soon...
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#211
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:58
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#212
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:02
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The discussion is also interesting:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtmlZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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#213
by
Captain Scarlet
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:07
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psloss - 27/8/2006 3:43 PM
The NHC site right now says "Tropical Storm Ernesto," but no update/report there yet to corroborate...the 5 pm EDT advisory and forecast should be out soon...
I don't understand what you've been saying.
Is this going to be a hurricane when it hits Florida or what?
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#214
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:08
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Bill Harwood has posted an update, too:
"04:20 p.m., 08/27/06, Update: Rollback options debated; launch windows reviewed"
http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/current.htmlExcerpt:
The forecast for Tuesday calls for showers in the area and if NASA failed to get Atlantis off, engineers would not have time to get the shuttle back to the VAB before high winds from Ernesto reached the area. As of this writing, 40-knot winds are expected at the Kennedy Space Center by Thursday afternoon.
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#215
by
gocamels
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:17
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High SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) once Ernesto clears Cuba should/could allow for a rather explosive regeneration...even a minor tropical storm has a good chance of "blowing up" when it hits the 80+ F waters between the Keys and Cuba, and then Florida Bay and the eastern Gulf...the big ? is the track, if this tracks more towards Homestead/Miami for landfall, than the period the core has a chance to regernate is much shorter...this trough diving in over the 72-90 hour period could speed up, which would continue to shift the track more easterly.
Just from looking at the data...MMT has its work cut out on making the roll back call, and got NO help from the 5PM products. An 11pm meeting probably won't get much more help from the 11PM advisory/products
IMHO...it's almost like the only way to decide is a "flip-of-the-coin"...glad I'm not them right now.
And not to get selfish, but I have to start planning for a potential crossing of my neck of the woods, but most likely a much needed rain maker.
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#216
by
rdale
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:25
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#217
by
gocamels
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:35
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rdale - 27/8/2006 5:12 PM
Why don't we keep weather chat in the weather thread and have news here? If Ernie takes the path NHC now has as its center line, there's no worry about winds at Kennedy.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
Scroll down to Cocoa Beach - a 14% chance of 50kt winds... 14% isn't much.
That's a high number to play games with for the MMT. Even around 8 to 10% is a tough call...remember the NHC forecasts have done nothing but shift to the RIGHT for the least 48 hours, and its a CONE, not a straight line...hurricane predictions are by no means an exact science.
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#218
by
Mark Dave
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:39
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I can tell Monday is off. Hopefully not though, I want to see Atlantis fly.
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#219
by
DaveS
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:00
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Say hello to Crawler 1 and 2!
