Author Topic: Reusability effect on costs  (Read 184306 times)

Offline rsdavis9

Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #260 on: 04/05/2017 05:09 PM »

Um, the performance upgrades were required in any case, IMHO... F9 1.0 wasn't capable of serving the GTO market well, again IMHO.

what was the gto performance of v1.0 expendable?
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline envy887

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #261 on: 04/05/2017 05:40 PM »

Um, the performance upgrades were required in any case, IMHO... F9 1.0 wasn't capable of serving the GTO market well, again IMHO.

what was the gto performance of v1.0 expendable?

4680 kg, according to

https://web.archive.org/web/20101222155322/http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php

It never flew to GTO, though.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #262 on: 04/05/2017 06:02 PM »
Quote
Shotwell: cost of refurbishing F9 first stage was “substantially less” than half of a new stage; will be even less in the future. #33SS

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/849679544923697152

Edit to add: important extra point

Quote
Shotwell: Falcon booster refurbishment cost substantially less than 1/2 cost of new build; more done for SES-10 than future flights. #33SS

https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/849679956988674048
« Last Edit: 04/05/2017 06:09 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online speedevil

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #263 on: 04/08/2017 01:16 PM »
Quote
Shotwell: cost of refurbishing F9 first stage was “substantially less” than half of a new stage; will be even less in the future. #33SS

If the stated aim is to get F9 flying within a day, I can't see how you'd spend even a small fraction of that.

Offline JamesH65

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #264 on: 04/09/2017 07:27 PM »
Quote
Shotwell: cost of refurbishing F9 first stage was “substantially less” than half of a new stage; will be even less in the future. #33SS

If the stated aim is to get F9 flying within a day, I can't see how you'd spend even a small fraction of that.

Well, yes. Fairly obvious I would have thought· If they can get it down to 24 hrs, the costs are going to drop substantially (even if those 24hrs are spread over longer periods). To do that, huge sensor suites in the rocket, which are actually pretty cheap, and good engineering to fix parts that are determined to fail earlier than needed.

This one was expensive because the first of anything is usually a pathfinder, and much more than subsquents.


Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #265 on: 04/12/2017 06:15 PM »
Quote
Shotwell: cost of refurbishing F9 first stage was “substantially less” than half of a new stage; will be even less in the future. #33SS

If the stated aim is to get F9 flying within a day, I can't see how you'd spend even a small fraction of that.
I believe she also stated that the next ones will be 1/10 that of the SES-10. So that puts refurbishment costs at <$2M.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/04/11/musk-wants-to-make-falcon-9-rocket-fully-reusable/
Quote
For the next few rockets SpaceX aims to refly, Shotwell said engineers will do about a tenth of the work that they did to refurbish the booster that launched March 30 from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida with the SES 10 communications satellite.
Costs = level of manpower "work" plus replaced parts value.

If no parts are replaced then the cost of refurbishment is just the labor. So we have a floor for minimum costs. Now add the average cost of replaced parts which would probably be only another $2M (an M1D costs less than $2M) and you get a value for refurbishment at somewhere around $2-4M.

That is a savings of $20M+ over a new booster. The question becomes  how much will SpaceX allocate to paying back reusability development costs and how much to a customer discount.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #266 on: 04/12/2017 08:22 PM »
I think the best strategy is to offer really good deals on bulk purchase (multi-launch of similar satellites), while keeping the price for single satellites only a bit below that at present.

Growth in the market is going to come through large constellations and repeated launch of similar missions (tourism, dragonlab, etc.). Over the next few years, this bulk market is one that SpaceX are uniquely able to fill. A $5 M profit margin on a 100 launch deal will make much more money than a $20 M margin on all the currently winnable commercial contracts for GEO communication satellites.

Growing the market is in my opinion the best strategy, but it will take many years for the market to react to price signals (very inelastic in the short term, it seems moderately elastic in the medium term, 5-10 years). So promising very low prices in 5 years for bulk purchase, while keeping prices high in the short term should maximise profit.


Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #267 on: 04/13/2017 05:08 PM »
I believe that the pricing structure is headed towards the following:

1) If the contract specify use of new booster customer will be charged an additional fee.

2) Based on the landing mission mode (RTLS, ASDS, EXPD) this will control the basic price. There will be probably a stiff penalty for use of EXPD mode. These prices would assume no specificity by the contract on vehicle usage status.

This type of pricing structure will probably take over once the usage rate of used boosters get to the 70% level. But until then the pricing structure is a price and then discounts.

Offline hkultala

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #268 on: 04/13/2017 08:36 PM »

Um, the performance upgrades were required in any case, IMHO... F9 1.0 wasn't capable of serving the GTO market well, again IMHO.

what was the gto performance of v1.0 expendable?

4680 kg, according to

https://web.archive.org/web/20101222155322/http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php

It never flew to GTO, though.

I think this is not v1.0.

I think that In the page they are advertising the planned second model of Falcon 9 which was supposed to have higher thrust "Merlin 1C+" engines, and they payloads are for that model. But instead they managed to make the even more powerful Merlin 1D engine and this version with the "merlin 1C+" never flew.

Offline envy887

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #269 on: 04/13/2017 08:55 PM »

Um, the performance upgrades were required in any case, IMHO... F9 1.0 wasn't capable of serving the GTO market well, again IMHO.

what was the gto performance of v1.0 expendable?

4680 kg, according to

https://web.archive.org/web/20101222155322/http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php

It never flew to GTO, though.

I think this is not v1.0.

I think that In the page they are advertising the planned second model of Falcon 9 which was supposed to have higher thrust "Merlin 1C+" engines, and they payloads are for that model. But instead they managed to make the even more powerful Merlin 1D engine and this version with the "merlin 1C+" never flew.

You're right, it says "Data reflects the Falcon 9 Block 2 design."

Wonder if that's v1.1...?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #270 on: 04/13/2017 09:05 PM »
No, it's a version of v1.0 that never flew.
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Offline envy887

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #271 on: 04/13/2017 11:41 PM »
No, it's a version of v1.0 that never flew.

It must have morphed into v1.1, since we know that FT/v1.2 is Block 3.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #272 on: 04/16/2017 08:11 AM »
I believe she also stated that the next ones will be 1/10 that of the SES-10. So that puts refurbishment costs at <$2M.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/04/11/musk-wants-to-make-falcon-9-rocket-fully-reusable/
Quote
For the next few rockets SpaceX aims to refly, Shotwell said engineers will do about a tenth of the work that they did to refurbish the booster that launched March 30 from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida with the SES 10 communications satellite.

Yes, it can just be heard on a video of the talk, with transcription by RedLineTrain: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39167.msg1667230#msg1667230

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #273 on: 04/16/2017 05:27 PM »
The main kicker here is the effect such low refurbishment costs have on the cost per flight of an FH. At 10 flights per booster the average savings per flight is ~$20M for an F9. But for an FH it is $60M. Putting the pricing of an FH at about $15M more than an F9. If the new price of an F9 eventually gets to a value of $45M then the price for a FH would be ~$60M. That last flight flying as an expendable fully loaded would make the $/kg to LEO only $937.

Now drop the price another $3M for reusing the faring.
Price $57M - $/kg $890.

Added:
By 2020 the $/kg potential could be as low as $800 this is a factor of 10 from where the $/kg was at prior to F9's first flight in 2010 ($10,000/kg for an Atlas V 551 - best cost performance of all US LVs). So a factor of 10 over 10 years. What will the next ten years bring? $80/kg! (This is the goal of the ITS BTW).
« Last Edit: 04/16/2017 05:56 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #274 on: 04/16/2017 05:43 PM »
A year ago, Jeffries put together a simple reusability model that was referenced by Space News.  I found it pretty helpful at the time in thinking about the impact of reusability so I put it in a spreadsheet.

After talk of fairing and second stage reuse became more concrete, I broke out the costs into four components:  first stage, second stage, fairing, and flight ops and calculated various reuse scenarios for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.  Attached is the slightly more complicated model.  Variables in red can be changed to suit.

Feedback welcome.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #275 on: 04/16/2017 06:44 PM »
Thanks for the spreadsheet.

Now for the other item. How long will it take for SpaceX to recover their $1B investment in reuse.

At 25 flights / yr and 70% being used boosters and SpaceX recovering $10M to pay against this charge per reused booster flight it will be 6 years for them to recover this development cost. Number of flight goes up or % of reused to new goes up then the time for this recovery will shorten. At 90% and 35 flights per year it would take only 4 years. So with SpaceX's flight projections the recovery period will be closer to 4 than it will be to 6. Putting recovery period ending in 2021. So in 2022 the prices could drop an additional $10M for an F9 and as much as $30M for an FH. The key here is that SpaceX is still making the same amount of profit per flight as they are now but at prices are a lot lower.

This is a very stiff competition price point profile. Other LV's would be hard pressed to keep up unless they were fully reusable. These price drops would occur only 2 years after the NG and Vulcan are operating.

Offline Lar

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #276 on: 04/16/2017 07:15 PM »
I am not sure I buy that 1B number as an actual out of pocket cost... I think it might be padded for customer benefit.  Remember that a lot of the experiments are done on hardware that otherwise is going into the ocean and is otherwise paid for. 1B buys a LOT of barge time/ tug time/fins and legs, etc

I would be interested in any rough budgets that people might have. We know tug rates and barge rates and stuff....

ok now i'm convincing myself that maybe it is 1B... but it's a self funded 1B ...
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #277 on: 04/16/2017 07:18 PM »
The main kicker here is the effect such low refurbishment costs have on the cost per flight of an FH. At 10 flights per booster the average savings per flight is ~$20M for an F9. But for an FH it is $60M. Putting the pricing of an FH at about $15M more than an F9. If the new price of an F9 eventually gets to a value of $45M then the price for a FH would be ~$60M. That last flight flying as an expendable fully loaded would make the $/kg to LEO only $937.

Now drop the price another $3M for reusing the faring.
Price $57M - $/kg $890.

Added:
By 2020 the $/kg potential could be as low as $800 this is a factor of 10 from where the $/kg was at prior to F9's first flight in 2010 ($10,000/kg for an Atlas V 551 - best cost performance of all US LVs). So a factor of 10 over 10 years. What will the next ten years bring? $80/kg! (This is the goal of the ITS BTW).
Those kind of cost improvements, other than computers, don't tend to keep going at the same breakneck pace over the long haul without some other technological revolution.  Something beyond re-usability and optimal scale will probably be needed to get costs down to $80/kg.  I would be happy to see anything under $800/kg for the next couple of decades.   Even $800/kg will probably be enough of a reduction to open up significant growth in a space economy.

Offline Lar

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #278 on: 04/16/2017 07:22 PM »
And that's where the kicker comes in. Although some think that there are some fixed costs that will go up (and thus not be truly fixed) if the traffic volume goes up 10x, that is likely to drive down cost just from efficiency reasons. Not with the current ranges though.
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Online RonM

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Re: Reusability effect on costs
« Reply #279 on: 04/16/2017 07:22 PM »
That $1B R&D resulted in technology that will apply to ITS and any other VTVL rockets SpaceX will develop. F9/FH programs don't have to recover the entire cost for them to be a success.

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