Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 315770 times)

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #720 on: 07/08/2017 12:38 AM »
The question isn't if FH will slip to 2018, the question is if it is one of the 12 Musk stated as still scheduled for 2017.  I think that is very likely.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #721 on: 07/08/2017 07:25 PM »
Presumably 3 or 4 of the 12 Elon cites are from VAFB. Let's be conservative and say 3, so at most 9 from the Cape, or 2 a month with, say, just 1 in December.

So that's a plausible limit for the most SpaceX can physically do this year, but I can't help wondering if they are close to being limited by payload availability?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #722 on: 07/08/2017 07:44 PM »
They are not limited by payload availability this year, and probably won't be next year.  Keep in mind they are still launching the non-government payloads 5+ months late (some of the September/October launches will be stuff originally targeted for late 2016).  With the leftovers from 2017 spilling into 2018, they have around 30 missions for next year.  The limiting factor will be launch vehicle availability for the near future, probably until 2019.  Even reusing some first stages isn't going to change that.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #723 on: 07/12/2017 01:37 AM »
Moving SAOCOM-1A to March 2018

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #724 on: 07/12/2017 07:18 PM »
I posted this in other thread although here it's more useful

As the second part of the year seems to be pretty packed with launches, a chart like 'FPIP' could be useful.
So here is my version.
Notes:
The chart shows Falcon launches (blue marks) from Eastern Range (SLC-39A and SLC-40) and from Western Range (SLC-4E)
along with launches by ULA and Orbital (red marks) from the same ranges - for possible scheduling conflicts.
Light brown shadings show ongoing repair work on SLC-40 ("A") and pad modifications at SLC-39A ("B" & "C").
Red frame shows closing period for Eastern Range maintenance.
Green vertical line - current date.
And the last note - on the difference between blue and red marks.
All the ULA launches have dates. Of course they are flexible (subject to change), but the planned date is defined. Therefore the red marks show these planned dates for ULA/Orbital launches, at least what we know currently.
This is not the case with SpaceX' plans, and the blue marks are mostly (with two exceptions) guesswork. This is illustrated on the example of X-37: for this launch we have two dates (Aug 17 and Aug 28), and I showed this interval with dotted blue frame. However, I did not do this for the rest of launches, this would make chart unreadable.
Basically, this chart shows only two specific moments:
a tight "knot" of 3 launches from Cape in August and a similar "knot" from VAFB in September.

And the chart (which I will upgrade eventually)
« Last Edit: 07/13/2017 02:22 AM by gongora »

Online yokem55

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #725 on: 07/13/2017 05:21 PM »
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #726 on: 07/13/2017 05:46 PM »
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?

It's still 2017 as far as we know, looks like smoliarm missed that one.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #727 on: 07/13/2017 06:15 PM »
So is CRS 13 not going to make 2017 then?

Quote
2018
NET January - Dragon SpX-13 (CRS-13), ASIM, TSIS, MISSE-FF - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A

as in the latest version of "US Launch Schedule"
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.msg1694807#msg1694807

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #728 on: 07/13/2017 06:21 PM »
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #729 on: 07/13/2017 06:31 PM »
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.

This is the source:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1685870#msg1685870

and here is the original source ("2017 AST Compendium")
https://brycetech.com/downloads/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2017.pdf
page 73 (79 actual)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #730 on: 07/13/2017 06:38 PM »
I haven't seen anything about CRS-13 slipping, so it's staying in 2017 on my manifest.

This is the source:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37802.msg1685870#msg1685870

and here is the original source ("2017 AST Compendium")
https://brycetech.com/downloads/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2017.pdf
page 73 (79 actual)

I don't consider that report to be a reliable source for dates.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #731 on: 07/13/2017 07:19 PM »
Well, I'm not arguing, I just explained why CRS-13 is missing in my chart.

With respect to FAA Compendium: it does show a typical planning pattern for cargo flights to ISS.
Looks like NASA consider 5 flights per year (3 Dragons + 2 Cygnuses) as normal transport volume.
But, of course, current demand determines the actual schedule.

In this year we already have 3 cargo flights:
Feb 19, 2017 - Dragon CRS-10
Apr 18, 2017 - Cygnus OA-7
Jun 03, 2017 - Dragon CRS-11

And 3 more are scheduled:
Aug 10, 2017 - Dragon CRS-12
Sep 12, 2017 - Cygnus OA-8
Nov 17, 2017 - Cygnus OA-9

Therefore it seems like CRS-13 will be in 2018...
Although I have not seen current ISS FPIP  :)
« Last Edit: 07/13/2017 07:20 PM by smoliarm »

Online rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #732 on: 07/14/2017 11:31 PM »
Well, I'm not arguing, I just explained why CRS-13 is missing in my chart.

With respect to FAA Compendium: it does show a typical planning pattern for cargo flights to ISS.
Looks like NASA consider 5 flights per year (3 Dragons + 2 Cygnuses) as normal transport volume.
But, of course, current demand determines the actual schedule.

In this year we already have 3 cargo flights:
Feb 19, 2017 - Dragon CRS-10
Apr 18, 2017 - Cygnus OA-7
Jun 03, 2017 - Dragon CRS-11

And 3 more are scheduled:
Aug 10, 2017 - Dragon CRS-12
Sep 12, 2017 - Cygnus OA-8
Nov 17, 2017 - Cygnus OA-9

Therefore it seems like CRS-13 will be in 2018...
Although I have not seen current ISS FPIP  :)

How long will there be a 4th crew member on the U.S. side? I expect NASA will want to show they can effectively increase the volume of science done at the ISS national lab with the additional crew. Dragon has mostly been carrying science recently and I expect that to continue with CRS-13. If they need the science on station, Dragon will fly in November.

Offline cletus

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #733 on: 07/19/2017 06:21 PM »
Elon Musk says work on Dragon propulsive landing, and thus implicitly Red Dragon, has been stopped (although leaves door open for restarting in the future).

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42615.msg1703921#msg1703921

(Source: ISS R&D 2017 Conference livestream)

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #734 on: 07/21/2017 01:37 PM »
This should make ArabSat a NET Q1 2018 launch, I think

Potentially great news. STP-2 is NET April 30th, 2018, according to the USAF.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170721-lightsail-2-updates-prox-1-launch-dates.html

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #735 on: 07/21/2017 08:18 PM »
Moving on to Thread 5

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