Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 319724 times)

Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #660 on: 05/14/2017 02:19 PM »
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
« Last Edit: 05/14/2017 02:21 PM by beancounter »
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #661 on: 05/14/2017 02:38 PM »
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
Actually, they didn't RTF until half way through January. From Iridium-1 to the last launch with NROL-76 was 3.5 months, and they did 5 launches. Tomorrow it will be 6 launches in 4 months.

Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #662 on: 05/14/2017 10:09 PM »
Ok fair enough, 1.5 per month average but hard to have half a launch so 1 or 2 depending on how you see things.
Cheers
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #663 on: 05/15/2017 01:09 AM »
Love the way everyone's talking about multiple launches per month but so far the average this year is one.  :)
Cheers
Actually, they didn't RTF until half way through January. From Iridium-1 to the last launch with NROL-76 was 3.5 months, and they did 5 launches. Tomorrow it will be 6 launches in 4 months.

I was thinking about the cadence today.  NRO slowed them up for sure. 

If they can get consistent with the 14 day cycle, then they can just work on taking off 1 or 2 days at a time to get the cycle down. 

At some point payload availability will be a limit and that would be the best problem they could hope to have.
Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline BruceM

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #664 on: 05/15/2017 11:22 AM »

I was thinking about the cadence today.  NRO slowed them up for sure. 

If they can get consistent with the 14 day cycle, then they can just work on taking off 1 or 2 days at a time to get the cycle down. 

At some point payload availability will be a limit and that would be the best problem they could hope to have.

Yes, and perhaps consider in the resulting launch world who the winners and losers will be when launch service availability is less important than now (because most or all launch providers will have minimal backlog) and launch price even more important.  Could make for some interesting times...
« Last Edit: 05/15/2017 11:25 AM by BruceM »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #665 on: 05/15/2017 02:13 PM »
This thread is drifting from discussing the manifest into general discussions of SpaceX's pace and backlog, etc.  Those are interesting enough but there are dedicated threads for that elsewhere
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #666 on: 05/18/2017 02:35 AM »
PSN-6 may be moved to 2018:

http://spacenews.com/china-great-wall-industry-corp-lands-indonesian-commercial-satellite-order/

Quote
The funded satellites are PSN-6, a C- and Ku-band satellite ordered from Space Systems Loral in 2014 that is scheduled to launch next year on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, the Palapa-N1 joint venture satellite, and the ageing Palapa-D. Adiwoso said PSN will seek to prolong the life of Palapa-D by moving it from 113 degrees east into a different orbit at 144 degrees east. Adiwoso said 70 percent of the capacity on PSN-6 is already sold.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Online Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #667 on: 05/19/2017 01:50 PM »
So to keep everyone up to date, as much as you guys in this thread are doing that really well....

CRS-11 - June 1.
BulgariaSat-1 - June 15.
Iridium NEXT - end of June.

But also a KSC schedule claiming a 39A launch really close to Iridium. We are working on how close they can launch per assets when one is on the West Coast and another on the East Coast. Problem is, they like to work "to the next mission" so asking about launches four launches away is always going to get a "one at a time" response (and understandably).

Then you have natural slips and so on - which results in natural spacing, but yeah, we are working through this in L2 and when we get some solid info I'll immediately turn it around into here.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #668 on: 05/19/2017 02:03 PM »
This thread is drifting from discussing the manifest into general discussions of SpaceX's pace and backlog, etc.  Those are interesting enough but there are dedicated threads for that elsewhere

Correct. Please do use them.

As a note: I love how often a post from a member is enough to get a discussion back on track, you guys are great at self moderating most of the time. Thanks!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #669 on: 05/19/2017 06:23 PM »
Can we ask about the status of the Intelsat stage? Reports of a stage with reused hardware being shipped to McGregor and another stage shipping from McGregor westward raise some questions.

If this stage is SES-11 then that explains the reusable hardware, but then where is Intelsat? Is it at McGregor to be fired after the FH side core finishes its additional testing?

If this is intelsat, then a ASDS landing would be an exciting development considering its weight.

It could also just mean that Intelsat has slipped for whatever reason and SpaceX shuffled the cores.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #670 on: 05/19/2017 10:52 PM »
Can we ask about the status of the Intelsat stage? Reports of a stage with reused hardware being shipped to McGregor and another stage shipping from McGregor westward raise some questions.

If this stage is SES-11 then that explains the reusable hardware, but then where is Intelsat? Is it at McGregor to be fired after the FH side core finishes its additional testing?

If this is intelsat, then a ASDS landing would be an exciting development considering its weight.

It could also just mean that Intelsat has slipped for whatever reason and SpaceX shuffled the cores.

The current partly informed/guesstimated deduction (on my part) is that either:
- Intelsat is indeed pushed back for later launch (post June) and SES-11 is riding on 1037
- or Intelsat is riding on 1037 not using its re-use attachment points.

It will be very busy on the roads for all planned launches to stay on track. Keep your eyes and ears out please.
If info is delicate, feel free to post it in L2 or PM me personally.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #671 on: 05/20/2017 07:39 PM »
We need to recruit some Indonesian members to watch the local media for us...

These seem to say there is a contract for SpaceX to launch Telkom 4 around June 2018 (although I can never be completely sure with Google Translate).

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/

Offline jpo234

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« Last Edit: 05/21/2017 09:26 AM by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online cppetrie

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #673 on: 05/20/2017 11:40 PM »
We need to recruit some Indonesian members to watch the local media for us...

These seem to say there is a contract for SpaceX to launch Telkom 4 around June 2018 (although I can never be completely sure with Google Translate).

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3424084/spacex-masih-dipercaya-luncurkan-satelit-telkom-4
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170417152745-213-208098/telkom-bakal-lebih-hemat-berkat-roket-spacex/
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/teknologi/20170130174006-213-190081/satelit-telkom-berikutnya-bakal-gandeng-spacex/
Behold my Google foo:
https://seasia.co/2017/05/01/indonesia-to-use-spacex-to-launch-next-satellite
http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2015/12/30/ssl-to-provide-next-satellite-for-telkom-indonesia/
Nice find! So not only is this a new launch contract, but it will also be on a flight-proven booster.
Quote
President Director of Telkom, Alex J. Sinaga mentioned to CNN, “Investment in Telkom-4 [satellite] will be cheaper as we use a reusable orbital rocket from SpaceX, so it will be cheaper as much as 40 percent.”

Edit: added relevant quote from seasia.co article.
« Last Edit: 05/20/2017 11:42 PM by cppetrie »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #674 on: 05/22/2017 10:11 PM »
What does it really mean to say that Telkom 4 is under contract to launch in June of 2018?

My personal list has 22 flights that are yet to be flown in 2017 and 29 in 2018.  Surely they won't get through that backlog in the next 14 months.  That would be ~40 flights in ~60 weeks.

This is a (Google Translated) quote from one of the articles:
Quote
The incident occurred early September 2016 ago, Or about seven months after Telkom signed On Ground Delivery contract with Space System / Loral (SSL) for satellite (spacecraft) and Falcon-9 from SpaceX.

If that's correct, the Telkom contract was done long before the AMOS-6 accident and resulting big delays to the manifest.

If they planned on June 2016 before the Amos-6 failure, that is no longer valid, and their current launch date is probably much farther out.

Looking back to a half year before Amos-6, "June 2018" would put it just after the GPS-3 launch, close the Telstar 18V and SpX/CRS-17 which may now be SpX/CRS-16. This puts it ~43rd on my list of launches.  It's 34th on this manifest.  Perhaps that's within the limit of the precision we can get, but it's launch is prossibly listed a bit too early.

Unless there is a "Business Select" line that boards early for rides on "flight proven" used first stages....
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #675 on: 05/23/2017 10:59 PM »
[SpaceNews] Eutelsat adding two more Quantum satellites to fleet
Quote
Paris-based Eutelsat has one Quantum satellite under construction from Airbus Defence and Space UK, purchased in 2015 for 180 million euros ($198 million)...Guilleux said Eutelsat is placing the first Quantum satellite at 12.5 degrees west, a geostationary position over the Atlantic Ocean with the ability to cover the Americas, Europe and Africa...SpaceX is under contract to launch the satellite in 2019.
« Last Edit: 05/23/2017 11:01 PM by gongora »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #676 on: 05/25/2017 06:42 PM »
Looking like SpaceX are going for four launches in June ... with Iridium moving forward to 25th:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.msg1683018#msg1683018

 :o

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #677 on: 05/25/2017 07:58 PM »
Bah, sorry everyone I spoke too soon:

Apparently now NET July 1?

Quote
SpaceX manifest news today: Iridium launch from Vandenberg jumps from June 29 to June 25, IS-35e from Cape NET July 1, then SES-11 late July

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #678 on: 05/25/2017 09:06 PM »
Bah, sorry everyone I spoke too soon:

Apparently now NET July 1?

Quote
SpaceX manifest news today: Iridium launch from Vandenberg jumps from June 29 to June 25, IS-35e from Cape NET July 1, then SES-11 late July

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/867821279071666178

NET July 1, no worries.

I was looking at the remaining 2017 manifested East coast launches this morning.  With a 2 week cadence there is plenty of room to fit them all in without having to get crazy.

It could be possible that for the first time SpaceX has this in hand and that it could be weather, payload and range issues that limit flights.

In 6-12 months it maybe clear that the sales folks have a hard time maintaining a backlog.

Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #679 on: 05/25/2017 09:39 PM »
So SpaceX has launched six times in the first five months of the year, and plans to launch four in the sixth (plus one day).

Hoping they can pull it off safely and successfully!

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