Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 280864 times)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #440 on: 01/11/2017 12:32 AM »
I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7. If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.

Still pretty impressive to see a booster going for testing when there is 4 launches (Iridium, Echostar, CRS-10, and SES-10) that seemingly have first stage cores already tested.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #441 on: 01/11/2017 03:52 PM »
I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7.
If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.
(snip)

CRS/SpX-11 is extremely unlikely to fly on March 7.  Given the current target date of Feb 8 for SpX-10, its planned duration at the ISS would overlap with an SpX-11 launched on that date.  That target date is only four weeks from today, and it's supposed to be the second flight from LC-39A, which has yet to see any rocket erected on it.
Then there is the berthing of OA-7, which was supposed to happen in the same early March timeframe.
That says that this booster is probably for some other missions.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #442 on: 01/11/2017 09:28 PM »
For what it's worth, tweet from Robin Seemangal quoting SpaceX:

Quote
SpaceX: We'll launch every two weeks in 2017
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline dglow

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #443 on: 01/12/2017 12:18 AM »
According to Robin this info was relayed to him "as background" during a recent interview with SpaceX. Mentioning here because this tweet, and a second one citing SpaceX, have since been deleted.

Publishing/tweeting/conveying info shared 'on background' is generally bad form. That said, if SX expressed this it represents big confidence on their part. Thank you, Johnnyhinbos, for grabbing a screencap while this was up.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2017 12:19 AM by dglow »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #444 on: 01/12/2017 12:31 AM »
That's their plan. They've got over 30 launches on the manifest right now. If they do just half that many, they're doing fantastic.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #445 on: 01/12/2017 07:29 PM »
"as many as" 32 launches planned from Cape Canaveral in 2017

That would be 6 Atlas V, 1 Delta IV, and  1 Minotaur IV, so the remaining 24 go to SpaceX.

This even more than the 22 East coast launches on starhawk92's manifest above.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2017 07:32 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #446 on: 01/13/2017 08:42 AM »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  5m5 minutes ago
Thales: Bangladesh Bangabandhu Ku-/C-band sat CDR OK, payload/platform mating in March. Thales-ordered SpaceX launch Dec 2017 [tight sched].

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/819840192328638465

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #447 on: 01/13/2017 10:32 AM »
"as many as" 32 launches planned from Cape Canaveral in 2017

That would be 6 Atlas V, 1 Delta IV, and  1 Minotaur IV, so the remaining 24 go to SpaceX.

This even more than the 22 East coast launches on starhawk92's manifest above.

well, right now I see eight Atlas V launches from Cape:

Jan 19, 2017 -- SBIRS GEO-3 -- Atlas V 401
Mar 16, 2017 -- Cygnus OA-7 -- Atlas V 401
May 04, 2017 -- AEHF-4 -- Atlas V 531
Aug 03, 2017 -- TDRS-M -- Atlas V 401
Aug 31, 2017 -- NROL-52 (Quasar) -- Atlas V 421
Nov 09, 2017 -- SBIRS GEO-4 -- Atlas V 411
Dec 07, 2017 -- AFSPC-11 -- Atlas V 551
2H xx 2017 -- AFSPC-7 -- Atlas V xxx

which makes arithmetic a little better :)
But it does not help with *realistics*... Twenty two is still way too high.

Another possible thing - this general may have included SUB-orbital launches in this "as many as" 32 launches planned. If so, the total number for SpaceX launches from CC goes down to some 16-17...
« Last Edit: 01/13/2017 10:33 AM by smoliarm »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #448 on: 01/13/2017 11:07 AM »
Maybe two Delta IV too. I'd feel more comfortable if they left the FH to last because if they suffer a launch mishap they'd run the risk of needing to rebuild yet another pad. I'm suggesting a kind of risk reduction by leaving it to last as they might have the other pad repaired by then. Of course, if they suffer another failure they'd have to stand down again anyway

Here's hoping it goes smoothly for them
« Last Edit: 01/13/2017 11:11 AM by vapour_nudge »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #449 on: 01/13/2017 11:14 AM »
There is a poll for the number of Spacex launches this year, that would be a more appropriate place to put our guesses.  This thread is for discussion of what flights should be listed on the manifest and what publicly known information we have on when they are scheduled to launch. Whether SpaceX will achieve the schedule is discussed in plenty of other threads.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #450 on: 01/13/2017 05:05 PM »
Think of the estimate for SpaceX east coast launces this way in 2016 there was 23 launches and SpaceX did only 8 of them. If SpaceX is responsible for the increase to 32 over that done in 2016 that is only 17 launches. But now add the 6 to 8 launches from VAFB and that is 23 to 25. So 2 a month is an accurate view of the average.

Now can SpaceX meet that kind of launch rate?

SpaceX can manufacture cores at a rate of at least 18 /yr. Now add 4 or 5 cores manufactured since Sept 1 and that is a total for 2017 of 22 or 23. The main thing to look at is the number of upper stages. If for every FH launched SpaceX does 2 reuse launches then the total launches is still controlled by the number of US manufactured. Making the max possible for launches including FH and reused 1st stage launches for 2017 at 22 or 23.

If the 1st stage reuse program is successful (technically and financially), then the manufacture program in 2018 can start shifting to produce 2 or more US for each 1st stage that it would have produced. If just 3 1st stages are switched to producing US then the rate is 15 complete cores and 9 more extra US. This is enough for 24 launches in 2018 of 15 new booster launches and 9 reused booster launches.

So to find the max launch capability for a year look to the manufacture rate of the US for a year.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #451 on: 01/13/2017 09:45 PM »
There is a poll for the number of Spacex launches this year, that would be a more appropriate place to put our guesses.  This thread is for discussion of what flights should be listed on the manifest and what publicly known information we have on when they are scheduled to launch. Whether SpaceX will achieve the schedule is discussed in plenty of other threads.

I agree with you, and had not intended to start a discussion.  Certainly not a repeat of the discussion in the Launch Poll where everyone guesses for this years total.  I was just comparing the statement from CCAFS to our manifest as some kind of supporting evidence.  This says we don't have to start moving our posted launch dates out beyond 2017.

Back to the proper subject, NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center's Raven team has just sent out invitations to team members to view the launch (and first stage landing!) of SpX-10 from the Banana River campground on February 8.  Confidence is low that the launch will happen on that day, or even close, but people are still preparing for it. 
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #452 on: 01/13/2017 10:13 PM »
Disclaimer: I do not intend to start another round of discussion about number of SpaceX flights this year and probabilities...
However:
This WSJ article
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455
particularly, the third figure in it - shows that SpaceX plan 27 launches this year.
Accordingly to the article this number is not an author's estimate but reflects current plans of the company.

Therefore it seems to me it should be reflected here in this thread.

Offline bulkmail

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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #454 on: 01/14/2017 05:50 AM »
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.

Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
« Last Edit: 01/14/2017 06:09 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #455 on: 01/14/2017 04:06 PM »
The table is misleading with the ariane numbers. Ariane 5 can only launch 8x annually, the restricting factor is the amount of solid boosters they can produce.
I think, the amount of satellites planned is listed in the table. As are the launches executed. Arianespace launched 9 comsats in 2016, if I'm not mistaken.
SpaceX also has done a tandem comsat launch in the past.
Comparing planned amount of satellites, with executed amount of launches, is an apples to oranges comparison.!
« Last Edit: 01/14/2017 04:11 PM by Rik ISS-fan »

Online meberbs

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #456 on: 01/14/2017 05:19 PM »
Disclaimer: I do not intend to start another round of discussion about number of SpaceX flights this year and probabilities...
However:
This WSJ article
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455
particularly, the third figure in it - shows that SpaceX plan 27 launches this year.
Accordingly to the article this number is not an author's estimate but reflects current plans of the company.

Therefore it seems to me it should be reflected here in this thread.
The chart is based on company data from early 2016, so it does not necessarily represent their current plans. Still relevant to see in this thread, even if it is a year old at this point.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #457 on: 01/14/2017 06:47 PM »
With a successful launch and landing time to move the Iridium Next Flt 1 to above the line.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #458 on: 01/16/2017 09:27 AM »
According to Wikipedia the Sentinel Mission will launch on a F9 in 2019:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
https://b612foundation.org/sentinel/
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #459 on: 01/16/2017 12:46 PM »
According to Wikipedia the Sentinel Mission will launch on a F9 in 2019:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope
https://b612foundation.org/sentinel/

Has anyone seen news about B612 actually coming up with money to build that project? I don't think it belongs on the manifest yet.

Edit: Bringing things like this to our attention on the manifest thread is good if you see a reference to a Falcon mission.  We just may not want to actually list it on the manifest if it doesn't seem to be a firm contract.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2017 02:13 PM by gongora »

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