Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 321949 times)

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4008
  • US
  • Liked: 3444
  • Likes Given: 1985
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #380 on: 11/03/2016 04:48 PM »
Inmarsat 6 F1 launching in 2020 is also a new addition to the manifest (see article in previous post).

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4008
  • US
  • Liked: 3444
  • Likes Given: 1985
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #381 on: 11/03/2016 08:49 PM »
The following changes are needed to the manifest:

Additions:
Inmarsat 5 F4, 2017-Q1 (probably not before February) on F9 to GTO
Bangabandhu, 2017-12 on F9 to GTO
Inmarsat 6 F1, 2020 on F9? to GTO

Change Dates:
Move Koreasat 5A to 2017-Q1 from TBD (was late 2016)
Move Intelsat 35e to 2017-Q2 from 2017-Q1
Move Iridium flight dates for flights 2 through 7 to 2017-03, 2017-05, 2017-07, 2017-09, 2017-11, 2018-01?
SES-11 is scheduled for 2017-H1, so I'd probably stick it no earlier than April for now
Move Falcon Heavy Demo to 2017-05 from 2017-03
Move CCTCAP DM1 to 2017-07 from 2017-05
CCTCAP In Flight Abort Test will be later in the year if it even happens in 2017
Move STP-2 to 2017-Q3 from 2017-03
Move CCTCAP DM2 to 2017-11 from 2017-08

Other:
If Europasat stays with SpaceX it will launch on F9 instead of FH
GRACE-FO isn't confirmed as a SpaceX payload, maybe mark it somehow as unconfirmed
There is only one ViaSat 3 launch, remove one row

Mission threads to link:
Intelsat 35e
Inmarsat 5 F4
Falcon Heavy Demo
STP-2
EuropaSat/Hellas-Sat 3
PSN-6
Koreasat 5A

Edit: Adjusted STP-2 date
« Last Edit: 11/03/2016 10:00 PM by gongora »

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4008
  • US
  • Liked: 3444
  • Likes Given: 1985
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #382 on: 11/04/2016 03:00 PM »
Elon said publicly in interview on CNBC that they are aiming for mid-December RTF.

Offline old_sellsword

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 632
  • Liked: 531
  • Likes Given: 463
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #383 on: 11/07/2016 08:07 PM »
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier. Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively. These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!
« Last Edit: 11/07/2016 08:23 PM by old_sellsword »

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4378
  • Liked: 1641
  • Likes Given: 1357
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #384 on: 11/07/2016 08:37 PM »
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier. Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively. These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!

This is great, but if all Falcon 9 first stage serial numbers start with "B1" then starhawk92's XX-N format has just about the same information, does it not?  The only obvious difference is that the SpaceX serialization starts with "-1" on the first flight. If Starhawk92 uses "-2" on the first reflight they should match.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline old_sellsword

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 632
  • Liked: 531
  • Likes Given: 463
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #385 on: 11/07/2016 09:22 PM »
2017-01     F9(23-1)     OCISLY      SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A

Hey starhawk92, just wanted to offer up some more information regarding the first stage ID numbers. When SES-10 flies on the CRS-8 booster, it will get a new F9-XXX identifier. Those are SpaceX's internal flight numbers, and do not get used twice (even with a -X modification). SpaceX internally gives all first and second stages serial numbers that follow the format of B1XXX and B2XXX respectively. These never change and Bill Carton found out that they will soon be painted on the boosters (but obscured by folded legs). For example, the CRS-8 first stage was B1021. When that first stage launches SES-10 next year, it will become B1021-2, with the -X representing the number of times it has flown.

These serial numbers are not nearly as public as the flight numbers, but like I mentioned above, they are now painting them directly on the cores. We're keeping track of them in the SpaceX subreddit, and we only fill in ones that are confirmed (no inferring). Use this info how you will, I just thought I'd let you know!

This is great, but if all Falcon 9 first stage serial numbers start with "B1" then starhawk92's XX-N format has just about the same information, does it not?  The only obvious difference is that the SpaceX serialization starts with "-1" on the first flight. If Starhawk92 uses "-2" on the first reflight they should match.

No, they are fundamentally different types of numbers. SES-10 will have a different flight number than CRS-8. That wouldn't make sense to call the SES-10 mission F9-023-2, they are completely separate flights. The only similarity between them is the first stage, but that's not what the F9-XXX number identifies. F9-XXX numbers are essentially mission numbers, they're used for one flight and that's it, even ones that don't leave the pad. CRS-8 was Falcon 9 Flight 23. SES-10 will be Falcon 9 Flight 32 or something.

The B1XXX numbers are first stage serial numbers. The mission F9-023 (CRS-8) used the first stage B1021-1. The mission F9-032 (SES-10) will use booster B1021-2. Same booster, different F9-XXX.

Edit: I initially misunderstood. Yes, using the maiden flight of the booster (F9-023-1) will have the same information as serial numbers (B1021-2). However it may get a little confusing when SES-10 is F9-032 and uses booster F9-023-1. But that definitely seems to be the more reliable method for now.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2016 04:27 PM by old_sellsword »

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4008
  • US
  • Liked: 3444
  • Likes Given: 1985
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #386 on: 11/08/2016 01:25 AM »
For the time being we are going to use the number of the first flight as the core number since we do not have serial numbers for all of the cores. If you don't think that method makes sense then you can use a different scheme on Reddit. If we are getting more consistent serial number information in the future then we could look at it again.

Edit:  When I said first flight I really meant the F9-xx numbers we've been using.  As we've seen before (and may see again in December) the public numbers for the boosters can actually fly out of order.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2016 04:41 PM by gongora »

Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #387 on: 11/08/2016 04:09 PM »
I see where you are going old_sellsword.

My purpose for this manifest from day 1 was to track the reuse.  I think that is where we differ.  I agree with you that they are fundamentally different missions.  But my point of the notation here is that the same core can be traced back through it's mission history.  We can say that core-xx flew on flight a, b (first reuse), c (second), etc.  That is really the information which interests *me* directly.

We can add another column for the serial numbers if the NSF Boat People can pick up on them consistently and those who follow this thread want it tracked.  No problem.

Thanks, old_sellsword, for dropping by with the information, it is very interesting and we'll watch for it!

Thank you!!

Offline deptrai

  • Member
  • Posts: 39
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 45
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #388 on: 11/10/2016 10:55 PM »
The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.

Current best guess is 34 launches in 2017, including 7 in January?  That seems optimistic even for Elon.

I really appreciate this thread as it sometimes helps my planning more than the info I get direct from SpaceX.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4008
  • US
  • Liked: 3444
  • Likes Given: 1985
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #389 on: 11/10/2016 11:30 PM »
This isn't the polling thread for the number of launches, so let's refrain from our guess for next year.

Starhawk92 has decided to use numerical months instead of using Q1, H1, etc.  A lot of the stuff listed on the manifest as 2017-01 would be better thought of as 2017-Q1.

The Iridium dates still need to be moved back (Iridium flight 2 wouldn't be before March).  STP-2 needs to move to the 3rd quarter.  Crew Dragon test flights need to be moved back to match the latest FPIP.  FH Demo should probably move back a couple months.

Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #390 on: 11/11/2016 04:16 PM »
I think I finally have all this merged in; still have related links & footnotes though.  Many thanks, gongora!

The following changes are needed to the manifest:

Additions:
Inmarsat 5 F4, 2017-Q1 (probably not before February) on F9 to GTO
Bangabandhu, 2017-12 on F9 to GTO
Inmarsat 6 F1, 2020 on F9? to GTO

Change Dates:
Move Koreasat 5A to 2017-Q1 from TBD (was late 2016)
Move Intelsat 35e to 2017-Q2 from 2017-Q1
Move Iridium flight dates for flights 2 through 7 to 2017-03, 2017-05, 2017-07, 2017-09, 2017-11, 2018-01?
SES-11 is scheduled for 2017-H1, so I'd probably stick it no earlier than April for now
Move Falcon Heavy Demo to 2017-05 from 2017-03
Move CCTCAP DM1 to 2017-07 from 2017-05
CCTCAP In Flight Abort Test will be later in the year if it even happens in 2017
Move STP-2 to 2017-Q3 from 2017-03
Move CCTCAP DM2 to 2017-11 from 2017-08

Other:
If Europasat stays with SpaceX it will launch on F9 instead of FH
GRACE-FO isn't confirmed as a SpaceX payload, maybe mark it somehow as unconfirmed
There is only one ViaSat 3 launch, remove one row


Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #391 on: 11/11/2016 04:18 PM »
Going to wait on adjusting Iridium dates until the first one finally gets off the pad.

I also know there has recently been a load of information about CRS missions with a lot of yummy date information.  I'll try to get that in soon as well.

Hopefully we'll get to put something above the dotted line in about a month!

GO SPACEX!!!

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4378
  • Liked: 1641
  • Likes Given: 1357
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #392 on: 11/22/2016 08:45 PM »
Another win
Another flight
SWOT April 2021 F9 Vandenberg


    November 22, 2016
CONTRACT RELEASE C16-029
NASA Selects Launch Services for Global Surface Water Survey Mission
NASA has selected Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Launch is targeted for April 2021 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

The total cost for NASA to launch SWOT is approximately $112 million, which includes the launch service; spacecraft processing; payload integration; and tracking, data and telemetry support.

Designed to make the first-ever global survey of Earth’s surface water, in addition to high-resolution ocean measurements, the SWOT mission will collect detailed measurements of how water bodies on Earth change over time. The satellite will survey at least 90 percent of the globe, studying Earth's lakes, rivers, reservoirs and oceans, at least twice every 21 days, aid in freshwater management around the world, to improve ocean circulation models and weather and climate predictions. The SWOT spacecraft will be jointly developed and managed by NASA and the French space agency Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES).

NASA’s Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The SWOT Project office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, manages spacecraft development for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For more information about NASA programs and missions, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov

What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4378
  • Liked: 1641
  • Likes Given: 1357
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #393 on: 11/23/2016 07:29 PM »
Please take the discussion of the SWOT launch contract here.  This thread is for the manifest and discussions about launch dates and such. 
My apologies if posting the notice here rather than linking to it lead us off topic.

Edit/Lar:  What he said. Also, I moved the discussion posts about SWOT to the SWOT thread linked above.
« Last Edit: 11/23/2016 07:53 PM by Lar »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online meberbs

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1857
  • Liked: 1723
  • Likes Given: 408
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #394 on: 11/25/2016 06:38 PM »
Echostar now planned for Jan 8-9, see this post and this article for details.

Too bad its not December, but considering it is the launch after RTF, first launch from a new pad, and the holidays this makes sense.

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4378
  • Liked: 1641
  • Likes Given: 1357
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #395 on: 11/25/2016 11:43 PM »
NASA Langley has asked for names of people who want to attend events associated with the launch of SpX-10 with their SAGE-III-ISS instrument in the Dragon's Trunk as external cargo. 
The launch date they are listing is January 22.
That's barely eight weeks from today. :o
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lee Jay

  • Elite Veteran
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6691
  • Liked: 1000
  • Likes Given: 140
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #396 on: 11/27/2016 02:40 AM »
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)

I used ridiculous techniques to determine it would be in the 8:30pm-9:00pm range, assuming no ISS orbit changes between now and then.  Hopefully, someone else will be able to use far better approaches than those I employed.

Offline Flying Beaver

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #397 on: 11/27/2016 02:59 AM »
(Can someone please determine and post the launch time if it were to happen on that day?)

I used ridiculous techniques to determine it would be in the 8:30pm-9:00pm range, assuming no ISS orbit changes between now and then.  Hopefully, someone else will be able to use far better approaches than those I employed.

Subtract ~2 hours a month (position of the earth round the sun, solar day etc) .

So say 6-6:30pm then.
Watched B1019 land in person 21/12/2015.

Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #398 on: 12/01/2016 03:19 PM »
OK, I think we are up-to-date with latest set of launch dates.  Next changes will be moving the Iridium launches to their mandated pacing.  All eyes on Vandenberg!!

Thanks for the updates and information, everyone!!

Offline jpo234

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1153
  • Liked: 1059
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #399 on: 12/06/2016 11:38 AM »
Starhawk,
you have listed Red Dragon flights for 2024-2029. My understanding is, that everything after the initial ITS flight in 2022 (Elon time) will be ITS based, too.
So, if you have the 2022 flight listed as ITS, the following Mars flights should use the ITS as well.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Tags: