Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 321296 times)

Offline Urx

  • Member
  • Posts: 9
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #220 on: 07/26/2016 10:13 PM »
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

Offline whitelancer64

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #221 on: 07/26/2016 11:18 PM »
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

Don't forget the mass of the cargo and the trunk.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4340
  • Liked: 1574
  • Likes Given: 1315
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #222 on: 07/26/2016 11:27 PM »
the NASA OIG Presentation leaves out Gaseous Consumables and The Wet mass of the Dragon When the Wet mass and Gasses are added the 10T is fairly accurate, but is capable of going as high as 14T based on previous data from SpaceX briefings and designed max mission duration.

I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

We are wandering from the manifest, even though we are working on a datum in a far right column.
How do you get 4-6 m^3?

4.2 T dry weight  (does this include the trunk?  I think not.)
3.3 T payload (internal and external per table above)
10 T total leaves
3.5 T fuel (sounds high)  (and trunk?)
1.4 average density of fuel and oxidizer?
2.5 m^3 fuel (minus adjustment for trunk, but it still sounds high)
Or maybe 10 T is not correct.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Urx

  • Member
  • Posts: 9
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #223 on: 07/27/2016 07:47 AM »
I'm trying to wrap my head around getting from 4200 kg dry to ~10000 kg wet. Given the density of the propellants that would mean 4-6 cubicmeters of fuel?

Don't forget the mass of the cargo and the trunk.

Thanks! I totally forgot about the trunk  :o

We are wandering from the manifest, even though we are working on a datum in a far right column.
How do you get 4-6 m^3?

1) see my comment above to whitelancer64
2) I assumed wet to mean fuelled but no payload, otherwise similar math and assumptions.

So what I was aiming at originally: Instead of 10000 I'd like to see a more precise estimate where available. Btw, the numbers for some past missions are in Table 4.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6718
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 6458
  • Likes Given: 1981
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #224 on: 07/27/2016 09:10 AM »
So looks like only one launch now in August, hopefully 2 (or more?) in September, depending on when next Vandenburg launch is:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 20m20 minutes ago

New target date for SpaceX launch of Spacecom's Amos-6 geo telecom satellite is 3-4 Sept (was 22 Aug.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #225 on: 07/28/2016 02:01 PM »
New launch date for the first Iridium flight,

Tweet from Stephen Clark
Quote
Iridium says first 10 next-gen satellites begin shipping to VAFB next week. Falcon 9 launch Sept. 19 at 9:49pm PDT  http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626

Tweet from Peter B. de Selding
Quote
IRDM CEO: Slight SpaceX delay to mid-Sept is one-time issue, SpaceX says wont recur in Dec launch (need 3 mnths between 1st & 2d launches).

Tweet from Stephen Clark
Quote
Iridiumís Matt Desch: SpaceX has assured me they will have rockets available for our launches every 60 days next year.

Online Shanuson

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 297
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 619
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #226 on: 07/28/2016 07:55 PM »
Quote
Tweet from Jeff Foust:
Wayne Hale talking about NAC HEO committee meeting this week, showing this detailed chart of ISS operations:

and

Quote
Tweet from Jeff Foust:
The chart goes out through August 2017, and includes the two SpaceX commíl crew demo launches (5/17 and 8/24) currently scheduled.
3 retweets 4 likes

Also  the Chart shows SpX-10 at the ISS from Nov 13th to Dez 20th 2016, SpX-11 from Feb. 3rd to March 5th 2017, and SpX-12 from June 3rd to July 3rd 2017

Since all those dates are time at the ISS the launch should be a 1-3 days before I think.

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #227 on: 07/28/2016 08:58 PM »
The two rows at the bottom of the FPIP with pictures of rockets are launch dates (US/Europe/Japan on the top row and Russia on the bottom row).  And you really shouldn't believe that they are exact dates more than a couple months ahead of time (and maybe not even then).

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 562
  • Liked: 262
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #228 on: 07/30/2016 02:28 PM »
The first post is out of date with the new reported NET dates for Amos-6 and the first Iridium.

Salo is now reporting that SES-10 and Echostar 23 are now NET October. This seems likely with the slip of Iridium to late September.

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6245
  • Liked: 4079
  • Likes Given: 5600
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #229 on: 07/31/2016 12:56 PM »
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

So far, best intelligence is that both upcoming SES flights will be on reflown cores.  Any others?

We should start hearing soon of new sales for reflown cores and can designate them accordingly as they are added to the manifest.  Expect a batch of quick sales after (maybe even before) the first reflight -- SES-10 in September.  There may also be some flights converting to reflown cores that are already on manifest as happened with SES.

By the way, thanks starhawk9 and all for starting and maintaining this thread.  Best reference available!!!
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #230 on: 07/31/2016 02:30 PM »
There is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. I haven't seen anything to suggest both SES flights will be on used boosters. SES 10 has been shown as a 4th quarter launch on the SES site for quite awhile now, and I haven't seen anything to suggest it will fly sooner.  Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6779
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1801
  • Likes Given: 1816
« Last Edit: 08/01/2016 03:34 PM by guckyfan »

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #232 on: 07/31/2016 06:05 PM »
Changes needed:

For JCSAT 16:
Per L2 KSC/Cape Planning (subject to change, per NET targets - heck they even moved one up this year, and so on):

NET August 14, 0126-0326L. 24 hour delay will result in the same window on the 15.
...

For AMOS 6:
Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 20m20 minutes ago

New target date for SpaceX launch of Spacecom's Amos-6 geo telecom satellite is 3-4 Sept (was 22 Aug.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/758222044911771648

For Iridium:
New launch date for the first Iridium flight,

Tweet from Stephen Clark
Quote
Iridium says first 10 next-gen satellites begin shipping to VAFB next week. Falcon 9 launch Sept. 19 at 9:49pm PDT  http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=981626

For SES-10: SES site shows the launch as 4Q 2016, so move to at least October.

For Es'hail 2:
Quote
2016
...
4th quarter - Esíhail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2017)
...

- On the customers page
https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites
this launch is scheduled for Q3 2017

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #233 on: 07/31/2016 06:16 PM »
For Echostar 23 their company launch calendar shows 3Q/4Q 2016.

Offline neoforce

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 296
  • Liked: 138
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #234 on: 08/01/2016 03:17 PM »
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

...

I'm sure starhawk will come up with a good convention. 

One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.    I also like the idea of leaving the cores as is right now "F9(23)" and when the core is reused go back and edit the original to "F9(23-1)" the second flight use as "F9(23-2)" and so on. 

But I'll be happy to leave it to starhawk, he has done a great job on this chart!

Offline schaban

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 118
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #235 on: 08/01/2016 04:57 PM »
One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.

color highlights should be distinct enough for color blind...

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6245
  • Liked: 4079
  • Likes Given: 5600
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #236 on: 08/01/2016 06:50 PM »
Are there plans for designating flights the will or have used a reflown core?
If not, I suggest using an asterisk (*) after the vehicle type until core number is known, then use core number with a reflight number (e.g., 23-1 for first reflight of the CRS-8 booster).

...

I'm sure starhawk will come up with a good convention. 

One suggestion for him is that rather an asterisk it becomes highlighted in green.    I also like the idea of leaving the cores as is right now "F9(23)" and when the core is reused go back and edit the original to "F9(23-1)" the second flight use as "F9(23-2)" and so on. 

But I'll be happy to leave it to starhawk, he has done a great job on this chart!

Apologies for being a bit stubborn, but the zeroth flight of a core (new core) could be left as-is, and reflights  numbered... doesn't make any difference which convention is used.  We'll let the one doing all the work decide which makes most sense.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3906
  • US
  • Liked: 3280
  • Likes Given: 1919
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #237 on: 08/02/2016 02:46 PM »
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding
Quote
SES: We expect SES-10 satellite, w/ 27 incremental xponders + replacement of AMC-3/-4 over LatAm, to launch in October on SpaceX Falcon 9.

Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #238 on: 08/02/2016 04:57 PM »
Take a vacation or two and this place goes crazy!!  I am working on all the updates, thanks to everyone who has contributed!

I will try to be as up-to-date as possible before the week is over.

Thanks again, all!!

Offline starhawk92

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 244
  • Burlington, NC, USA, North America, Earth (for now)
  • Liked: 240
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #239 on: 08/02/2016 05:08 PM »
Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

Tags: