SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[Stan Black]

For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

[Robotbeat]

For what it worth,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525773/000119312515357300/d12743dex992.htm

Intelsat S.A.
Quarterly Commentary
Quarter Ended September 30, 2015
October 29, 2015

Satellite*   Intelsat 35e
Follows    IS-903
Orbital Location   325.5°E
Launch Provider    SpaceX Falcon 9
Estimated Launch Date   2017
Estimated In-Service Date   2018
Application    Broadband & Media

However, Gunter's page for Intelsat 35e shows Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.4) as launch vechicle:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/intelsat-35e.htm

Could somebody clarify?

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Unhelpful. Please at least include a translation of the basic gist when posting non-English sources: "Satellite operators prefer "Proton", without waiting for the beginning of the Falcon Heavy rocket launches"

[gongora]

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:

According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.

[smoliarm]

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:

According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.

First, thank you for clarification.

Yes, Google translate works with Russian pretty poor, which is not a problem for me.
Actually, this Izvestia article does not add anything to your first answer.
Except - the article claims these launches are already switched to Proton, and it's a done deal. I'm not sure if it is true, and it would be not the first time I see incorrect info in Izvestia.

So, with respect to the topic -
there are 3 satellites: EuropaSat/HellasSat; Inmarsat-5 F4; Intelsat 35e
which were originally scheduled for Falcon.
Now they have option to use Proton, and for now we can not tell which launcher will which sat.

I guess we will know only when satellite is shipped to launch site.

[smoliarm]

For the line “2016-09                              Echostar 23”

BOOST:   F9
ORB:   GTO
MASS:   n/a
PAD:   LC40
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

For the line “2016-10     F9           OCISLY      KOREASAT                               LC40”
Sat Name – “Koreasat 5A”, reference e.g. -
http://spacenews.com/chart-arianespace-spacex-battled-to-a-draw-for-2014-launch-contracts/

ORB:   GTO
MASS:   ~3500 kg
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/koreasat-5a.htm

PS: It’s better to replace “Asia Broadcast” (second flight from now) with “ABS 2A”, which is actual satellite name.

[gongora]

For the line “2016-09                              Echostar 23”

BOOST:   F9
ORB:   GTO
MASS:   n/a
PAD:   LC40
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm

For the line “2016-10     F9           OCISLY      KOREASAT                               LC40”
Sat Name – “Koreasat 5A”, reference e.g. -
http://spacenews.com/chart-arianespace-spacex-battled-to-a-draw-for-2014-launch-contracts/

ORB:   GTO
MASS:   ~3500 kg
Reference:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/koreasat-5a.htm

PS: It’s better to replace “Asia Broadcast” (second flight from now) with “ABS 2A”, which is actual satellite name.

There are quite a few tweaks to be made, I've given starhawk92 a list of updates, he's started copying them onto the main list.  If you see anything wrong in the list at https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1533858#msg1533858 let us know.

[Stan Black]

http://izvestia.ru/news/609026

Kinda funny when you get Google to translate it, I'm imagining someone saying this in a Russian accent:

According to the resource spaceflightnow.com, is now the premiere demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy version is scheduled for November 2016. It will take place or not - difficult to predict.

Basically it seems to be saying that Intelsat originally intended that satellite to be the first commercial FH payload but got tired of waiting for FH to fly.  Also mentions that their regular customers are getting priority scheduling on Proton and prices have dropped from $100M to $70M per flight.

First, thank you for clarification.

Yes, Google translate works with Russian pretty poor, which is not a problem for me.
Actually, this Izvestia article does not add anything to your first answer.
Except - the article claims these launches are already switched to Proton, and it's a done deal. I'm not sure if it is true, and it would be not the first time I see incorrect info in Izvestia.

So, with respect to the topic -
there are 3 satellites: EuropaSat/HellasSat; Inmarsat-5 F4; Intelsat 35e
which were originally scheduled for Falcon.
Now they have option to use Proton, and for now we can not tell which launcher will which sat.

I guess we will know only when satellite is shipped to launch site.

I think it was an assumption from the N.K. forum that it would be Intelsat 35e placed on Proton based on schedule:-
http://www.intelsat.com/global-network/satellites/launch-schedule/
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum13/topic12294/message1496672/#message1496672
http://novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/forum/messages/forum14/topic14042/message1496674/#message1496674

Intelsat had booked a launch on a Falcon Heavy in 2012. No specific satellite is mentioned.
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/intelsat-signs-first-commercial-falcon-heavy-launch-agreement-spacex

Intelsat booked two Proton launches in 2013. Once again no specific satellites are mentioned. One is to be used for the upcoming Intelsat 31 launch.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/newsroom/news-releases/ils-proton-launch-two-missions-intelsat

They followed this with a further five in 2014.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/node/3996
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38807.0

There were several options, including 35e which was ordered in 2014.
http://boeing.mediaroom.com/Boeing-to-Build-Intelsat-35e-EpicNG-Satellite

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

[OnWithTheShow]

For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Is it certain that a FH with a Red Dragon will be constrained to a 2 month window? Would there be enough payload margin for a long window?

[gongora]

For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Is it certain that a FH with a Red Dragon will be constrained to a 2 month window? Would there be enough payload margin for a long window?

For our manifest purposes going with the small window is fine for now.  We can always adjust that entry a year and a half from now.  Dates for anything more than a couple months out are unlikely to be exact.

[tleski]

A couple of sources indicate that Thaicom-8 launch is using F9-025 core and Eutelsat will use F9-026. The list is currently showing F9-26 for Thacom-8.

[starhawk92]

For the Red Dragon Mission I would suggest adding a month value 2018-4 to the NET launch date which is the opening of the window. The window being only 2 months if the RD does not meet the date it will probably miss the window completely. So there is no capability to launch earlier or latter (other than May -05) in the year. The month is hard and will not move.

Very cool information, thank you so much!

[starhawk92]

If you believe the core numbering is incorrect, please read these then provide your source.  Thanks!

Based on order of testing at McGregor, Eutelsat has core 25:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/falcon-9-booster-reuse-testing-ksc/
Shipped it:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39182.msg1518763#msg1518763
Must disprove this:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39182.msg1528448#msg1528448

[gongora]

There was a definitive post in L2 that the current core on the test stand (as of 5/20) is called F9-026:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153

[tleski]

There was a definitive post in L2 that the current core on the test stand (as of 5/20) is called F9-026:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34957.msg1537153#msg1537153

This (which I was not sure we should mention here) and SpaceX subreddit is using F9-025 as Thaicom core currently. They were originally the source of the information that the cores were swapped based on SpaceX contact. However now they are back to 025 for Thaicom.

[Comga]

Looks like CRS-9 will launch July 16 at 1:32 PM EDT/local

"MEDIA ADVISORY M16-054
Next SpaceX Commercial Cargo Launch Targeted for Mid-July, NASA Opens Media Accreditation
Media accreditation now is open for the next SpaceX commercial cargo resupply services mission to the International Space Station, targeted for launch no earlier than approximately 1:32 a.m. EDT Saturday, July 16."

2016-07-16  F9           RTLS        Dragon (CRS 9) [7]        LEO  10000   LC40

That should move it after Formosat-5 & Sherpa, if that holds for a June launch
Being the middle of the month, there is no obvious way to guess if it flies before or after Iridium Next Flight 1.

edit:
To keep the listing compact, my preference would be to temporarily replace the year with the opening of the launch window like

07-16-01:32  F9          RTLS        Dragon (CRS 9) [7]        LEO  10000   LC40

[starhawk92]

Comga -

I have received requests to not muck with the date format, so I have moved the launch window information to the footnotes to keep the table clean.  Thoughts?

[gongora]

Looks like CRS-9 will launch July 16 at 1:32 PM EDT/local

That should move it after Formosat-5 & Sherpa, if that holds for a June launch
Being the middle of the month, there is no obvious way to guess if it flies before or after Iridium Next Flight 1.

Formosat-5 isn't launching in June, hopefully it will launch in July but even that's not a given.  We won't really know when SpaceX is ready to launch from Vandenberg again until they actually announce a launch date for something.

Moving CRS-9 back a couple weeks also compresses the Florida schedule even more for the third quarter.  Assuming nothing flies between EutelSat/ABS and CRS-9, they'll really need to get busy in August/September to have any chance of reaching their launch goals this year.

[Comga]

Comga -

I have received requests to not muck with the date format, so I have moved the launch window information to the footnotes to keep the table clean.  Thoughts?

It's your table but it looks good to me.  Clean and informative

edit: typo

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

A launch date of 16 July for CRS-9 is a 3 week interval from the Thiacom launch with the ABS+ launch almost exactly between. There is enough slack (2 weeks) to handle problems. SpaceX can if need be can do a 14 day turnaround. Primarily it is the stage availability and the payload readiness that is the drivers for launch dates.

A 3 week launch cycle for LC-40 could make for a very busy second half. With as many as 4 launches from SLC-4E and 2 from LC39A with as many as 8 from LC-40 making the total for the year as high as 20. But I don't think there is that many ready sats so LC-40 instead would have spurts of 3 week cycles with others being 1 month. So we are back to Ms Shottwell's 18 for the year statement.

The real question as others have pointed out is that Formaosat will either be early July as in first week or it would likely end up sometime NET mid-August. SpaceX will likely give Iridium priority.