Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 322138 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #580 on: 03/08/2017 09:32 PM »
Quote
@SpaceX's Shotwell on launching on time: 'We'll get there. We are spending a lot of money to get there.'#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600156286795778

Quote
@SpaceX Shotwell: We're investing 100s of millions in launch sites to catch up on schedule. We'll refly 6 boosters this yr.#SATShow

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/839600968404713472

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #581 on: 03/09/2017 04:25 PM »
Here's a write-up of Gwynne Shotwell's remarks yesterday:

http://spacenews.com/shotwell-on-spacex-launch-backlog-we-will-definitely-catch-up/

Contains some extra detail, such as:

Quote
Shotwell said it took SpaceX roughly four months to refurbish the Falcon 9 first stage for the SES-10 mission. In the near-term, she said, that will drop below two months, and eventually down to a single day.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #582 on: 03/11/2017 03:55 PM »
Shotwell said 6 re-used boosters would refly in 2017. I consider this a best case scenario along with past statements about flying 24 or so times in 2017.

We already know 3 of those re-uses:

* SES-10 (NET late March)
* 2 Side Boosters on FH Demo (NET November)

Looking at the manifest, I noticed that there are 3 more SES missions that could fly this year:

* SES-11 (NET May)
* SES-14 (NET H2)
* SES-16 (NET H2)

It makes sense to me that SES would want to the re-used boosters since they are taking the first one. Maybe they'll be competition for them (price and early launch). However, I wouldn't be surprised if SES takes them all or if we get more than 6 if other customers besides SES want to fly on a re-used booster.

Online ZachS09

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #583 on: 03/11/2017 03:56 PM »
Was FORMOSAT 5 scheduled to utilize a reused booster? Or am I assuming things?
« Last Edit: 03/11/2017 03:57 PM by ZachS09 »
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #584 on: 03/13/2017 09:22 AM »
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
....
All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!

Apstar-5C is another name for Telstar-18V

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #585 on: 03/13/2017 12:15 PM »
I don't recall seeing this Reddit post linked here yet, someone went to a conference where Spaceflight Industries was speaking and got a picture of their upcoming launch schedule.  It has their currently intended dates for the Falcon 9 dedicated missions, as well as rideshares on Falcon, Soyuz, PSLV, Minotaur C, Electron, VEGA.  There are also some notes on SHERPA and SpaceIL, and whether Dream Chaser could fly on a Falcon 9.

r/SpaceX user Swinusoidal: Spaceflight Manifest Shows 7 Dedicated F9 Launches Through 2020 In The Works - 4 SSO, 3 GTO

The dedicated SpaceX flights:
2017-Q4             F9           SSO-A (575km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-Q4             F9           SSO-B (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-1 (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-2 (200x60000km ~27.5deg)
2019-H2             F9           SSO-C (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2020-H1             F9           GTO-C (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2020-H1             F9           SSO-D (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)


We had heard previously that Spaceflight Industries intended to fly at least 4 Falcon 9 missions to various orbits, so the later ones in this list may or may not be under contract yet.
« Last Edit: 03/13/2017 12:41 PM by gongora »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #586 on: 03/13/2017 04:28 PM »
I need to spend some time later looking through these FCC permit applications, I've totally lost track of what's going on with them.

The latest permit application:
Quote
This STA is necessary to authorize launch vehicle communications for SpaceX Mission 1372, a commercial launch from Complex 39a, Kennedy Space Center.

Apparently they really have changed their mission numbering scheme for the permits.  The permit has operational period of 2017-04-16 to 2017-10-16, so that would probably be for a May launch?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #587 on: 03/14/2017 09:20 PM »
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $96,500,490 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver a GPS III satellite to its intended orbit. Contractor will provide launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, spaceflight worthiness and mission unique activities for a GPS III mission. Work will be performed at Hawthorne, California; Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida; and McGregor, Texas, and is expected to be complete by April 30, 2019. This award is the result of a competitive acquisition with two offers received. Fiscal 2016 space procurement funds in the amount of $96,500,490 are being obligated at the time of award. Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California, is the contracting activity (FA8811-17-C-0005).

I wouldn't interpret the "complete by" date as the launch date, I assume the launch would be a little earlier?  Just call it a 2019 launch for now?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #588 on: 03/14/2017 10:31 PM »
The launch will be the third GPS III launch and is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida in February 2019.

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #589 on: 03/16/2017 01:40 PM »
Hi Starhawk, I have a small suggestion for how the Falcon Heavy is shown in the table, to be more clear with all the tracking info.

Regular F9 flights are all on one line.  For FH, I suggest tracking the core on the first line, with the designator FHC.  Then putting the two boosters below as FHB.

Thus I'd change this:
NET DATE    LV  REUSE      FLT  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
2017-08     FH                         Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                               LC39A
                        25-1         xyz   RTLS
                       [new]        xyz   OCIS
                                       xyz   RTLS
 
To this:
NET DATE    LV  REUSE      FLT  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
2017-08     FHC [new]       xyz  OCIS   Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                      LC39A
                 FHB  25-1        xyz   RTLS
                 FHB  xx-x        xyz   RTLS
« Last Edit: 03/16/2017 02:30 PM by Norm38 »

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #590 on: 03/17/2017 07:13 PM »
The next flight after SES-10 is NROL-76 on April 16 and Inmarsat 5 as April 30. All other April launches should probably be moved to NET May.
« Last Edit: 03/17/2017 07:34 PM by Chris Bergin »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #591 on: 03/18/2017 03:19 AM »
HARP and OPEN will be launched  on SpX-12 (ELaNa 22).
https://www.nasa.gov/content/upcoming-elana-cubesat-launches

Quote
ELaNa 22
Date:  NET August 1, 2017
Mission: SpaceX-12 – Falcon 9 FT, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.
7 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed


Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #592 on: 03/18/2017 03:31 PM »
HARP and OPEN will be launched  on SpX-12 (ELaNa 22).
https://www.nasa.gov/content/upcoming-elana-cubesat-launches

Quote
ELaNa 22
Date:  NET August 1, 2017
Mission: SpaceX-12 – Falcon 9 FT, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla.
7 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed

But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.
« Last Edit: 03/18/2017 03:32 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #593 on: 03/18/2017 04:17 PM »
But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.

We already knew in L2 that CRS-12 was moving to NET August, this is a public confirmation of it.  Everyone knows STP-2 is going to slip, but to when?  Unless they just want to make something up or put TBD, there's no point in changing the STP-2 date yet.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #594 on: 03/18/2017 04:26 PM »
But that source says:
Quote
ELaNa XV
Date:  NET September 15, 2017
Mission:  Space Test Program (STP)-2 – Falcon 9 Heavy, Kennedy Space Center, Fla.
3 CubeSat Missions scheduled to be deployed
and we know that's NOT going to happen. STP-2 is the second flight of Falcon Heavy and the first launch won't happen until more than 60 days after LC-40 is back on line which is NET August.

So no dates from the ELaNa page are reliable.

We already knew in L2 that CRS-12 was moving to NET August, this is a public confirmation of it.  Everyone knows STP-2 is going to slip, but to when?  Unless they just want to make something up or put TBD, there's no point in changing the STP-2 date yet.

Did you miss my point?
Since we all know that STP-2 isn't going to launch when ELaNa says it is, the other dates it posts are unreliable.
I was not suggesting we use these dates in the manifest. Quite the opposite.
And we are not supposed to bring any L2 info out here
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #595 on: 03/18/2017 04:28 PM »
Did you miss my point?
Since we all know that STP-2 isn't going to launch when ELaNa says it is, the other dates it posts are unreliable.
I was not suggesting we use these dates in the manifest. Quite the opposite.
And we are not supposed to bring any L2 info out here

I didn't miss your point.  I don't think your point is valid.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #596 on: 03/19/2017 05:15 PM »
Intelsat 35e FCC Application
Quote
March 14, 2017

Re: Request for Special Temporary Authority to Conduct In-Orbit Testing of Intelsat 35e;
Call Sign S2959

Dear Ms. Dortch:
Intelsat License LLC (“Intelsat”) herein requests a grant of Special Temporary Authority (“STA”) for 90 days, beginning May 25, 2017, to conduct in-orbit testing (“IOT”) of the Intelsat 35e satellite (Call Sign S2959) at 33.0º W.L. and to drift the satellite to its permanent location of 34.5° W.L. Intelsat 35e is scheduled to be launched no earlier than May 15, 2017. The IOT period is expected to last approximately 45 days and the drift to 34.5° W.L. is expected to last approximately five days.

If SpaceX is still aiming for launches twice a month then Intelsat 35e and CRS-11 should be the mid-May and end of May launches, in some order.

edit: This could also give SpaceX expendable launches three months in a row.
« Last Edit: 03/19/2017 05:19 PM by gongora »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #597 on: 03/22/2017 01:15 PM »
One late 2017 launch now slipping back to 2018:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 8s8 seconds ago

Qatari sat operator @eshailSat's Es'hail-2 Ka-Ku sat for 26E (@ME_Europe build, @SpaceX launch) slips again, to 2018, Es'hailSat says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/844552243399528448

Offline meberbs

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #598 on: 03/22/2017 01:30 PM »
I expect there to be about 5 more updates like this waiting, since even at a pace of 1 launch/2 weeks which they seem to be ready for, they can only handle about 20 more launches this year.

Also on the topic of pushes to 2018, we know the Dragon in-flight abort has pushed to 2018 as well (it should reuse the capsule from the dm-1 mission).

Online yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #599 on: 03/23/2017 03:12 AM »
I was going to say the same thing. The in-flight abort test will be after the crew demo flight 1 test. This has been mentioned several times by SpaceX including on the second slide here:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41016.msg1624001#msg1624001

So the in-flight abort test should be placed after the uncrewed demo 1 flight on the manifest.

edit/gongora: changed "crewed" to "uncrewed"
« Last Edit: 03/23/2017 11:27 PM by gongora »

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