Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 324147 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #540 on: 02/17/2017 04:00 am »
Spaceflight Now's Launch Schedule is showing this flight in April.

Intelsat 35e scheduled for April
« Last Edit: 02/18/2017 08:25 pm by gongora »


Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #542 on: 02/17/2017 02:38 pm »
Do we have a SES-10 thread up yet?

https://twitter.com/SES_Satellites/status/832602692287680512

The schedule at the top of the thread has some links in it...

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #543 on: 02/17/2017 09:56 pm »
Updates needed to manifest table:

Add discussion thread links
 CRS-11 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42229.0
 Iridium Next Flight 2 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42097.0
 Falcon Heavy Demo https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41454.0

Payload Mass
 Intelsat 35e -> ~6k
 Inmarsat 5 F4 -> 6100
 Iridium is 860kg per sat plus 1000kg for dispenser
 Bulgariasat-1 -> 3669kg

Launch Dates
 Iridium -> June then August then about every 2 months
 Intelsat 35e -> move higher on the list, may actually launch in April
 Formosat/SHERPA -> move lower on the list, launch date unknown (could be 2018)
 NROL-76 -> not likely in March
 GovSat (SES-16) -> Q3
 In Flight Abort Test -> Early 2018?

Orbit
 In Flight Abort Test -> SUB

Naming
 Sun Synch Express has been called "SSO-A" lately

Landing
 Intelsat 35e likely expendable
 Inmarsat 5 F4 likely expendable
 NROL 76 unknown
« Last Edit: 02/18/2017 08:29 pm by gongora »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #544 on: 02/20/2017 04:54 pm »
CRS-10 success noted!

I am "in transit" with some changes, hope to get the first stage info realigned soon.

GO SPACEX!!!

Online rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #545 on: 02/21/2017 01:04 pm »
Starhawk: I don't think we are going to get to double digit re-used boosters for years. So, it seems to me that on the FH booster numbers 25-1 (instead of 25-01) is good for now.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #546 on: 02/21/2017 01:10 pm »
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.

What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline old_sellsword

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #547 on: 02/21/2017 01:11 pm »
What's the difference between the BOOST column and the FLT column?

Online rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #548 on: 02/21/2017 01:38 pm »
BOOST is currently sequential flight number. It may in the future become SpaceX booster numbers (see upthread discussion)

FLT refers to FCC mission number. The switch of the numbers of CRS-10 and Echostar is intentional as Echostar was originally intended to go first.

Offline old_sellsword

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #549 on: 02/21/2017 01:39 pm »
What's the difference between the BOOST column and the FLT column?

BOOST refers to the first stage "booster" and the side cores on the Heavy.  References serial numbers seen near the bottoms.

If that's the case, then all of them except CRS-10 are wrong and in the incorrect format, plus a few are assumed.

Right now FLT matches up with the F9-XX numbers, and BOOST isn't consistently tracking anything.

Online First Mate Rummey

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #550 on: 02/22/2017 12:30 pm »
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #551 on: 02/22/2017 01:56 pm »
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/

Online First Mate Rummey

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #552 on: 02/22/2017 03:17 pm »
Shotwell says at the press event at 39A before CRS-10 that Falcon Heavy won't launch until SLC-40 is back online. Further says, FH is NET mid-year. 
(Snip)

Other FH news from the same event:
Red Dragon on FH is officially 2020.


All other Red Dragon missions in first post are just speculations and should also be removed.

It may not be on the official SpaceX manifest, but Musk has made it pretty clear that the plan is to send at least one Dragon to Mars every synod.

"Elon: The basic gameplan is that we're going to send a mission to Mars with every opportunity from 2018 onwards."

https://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-code-conference-2016-live-blog/

But according to this:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf
page 47, there are only two opportunity for Red Dragon: 2018 and 2020.
From 2022 only ITS should fly.

Let's say Red Dragon 2018 is no longer planned and everything slips by 2 years, Red Dragon should still only fly in 2020 and 2022 and ITS by 2024.

Anyway once ITS is operational Red Dragon should no longer fly.

So:
* move Red Dragon (1) to 2020
* remove Red Dragon 5 -> 7
* possibly remove Red Dragon 2 and 3 or reschedule them to 2022 and also move ITS to 2024

Online rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #553 on: 02/22/2017 03:26 pm »
I personally think the manifest should be focused on the near term (next 3 or 4 years). Anything after that is basically a big question mark because there are a lot of events that could change when those payloads or new vehicles launch.

Offline ryanpritchard01

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #554 on: 02/22/2017 08:48 pm »
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

Offline old_sellsword

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #555 on: 02/22/2017 09:00 pm »
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #556 on: 02/22/2017 09:59 pm »
L2 39A schedule has updated. No target for the Static Fire yet, but the launch date [for Echostar 23] is NET March 12. Mainly to do with range availability.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #557 on: 02/22/2017 11:01 pm »
http://www.spacex.com/missions


Bigelow has a launch on a falcon 9???

It's been on their manifest since 2013 and we haven't heard anything about it since. Don't expect to see a Bigelow mission any time soon.

It has been on the manifest since something like 2006 when it was launching on a Falcon 5.
I can find the exact date if you wish.
It has continuously moved out as Bigelow's business plan has moved out with commercial crew.  There may have been a deposit put down but it's hardly defined.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline dglow

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #558 on: 02/22/2017 11:31 pm »
Starhawk, if you don't mind, here are a few more suggestions and associated rationale. I'm just playing around - feel free to take 'em or leave 'em.   :D

Observation: the BOOST and 1S columns work best when they are adjoining; do this by breaking out vehicle as its own column (LV) followed by the flight number (FLT), looking something like this:


NET DATE    LV  FLT  BOOSTR  RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  --  ---  ------  ----  -----------------------       ---  ------  -----
2017-02-28  F9  031  32      EXPD  Echostar 23 [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-03     F9  033  23-01   OCIS  SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
2017-04     F9               EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4                 GTO  6100    LC39A
2017-04     F9               OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 [15]      GTO  5400    LC39A
2017-05     FH  041  XX-01   OCIS  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
                     25-02   RTLS     XX-02   RTLS
2017-06     F9               RTLS  Formosat-5 & [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
                                   Sherpa SSO [14]               


Notes:
Ditching the parenthesis actually saves a couple of column spaces, and ends up more readable IMO.
For FH flights, adopt the convention of listing the center core first, side boosters on the following line.
The extra character on BOOST provides for future growth. ;D

Cheers,
D
« Last Edit: 02/22/2017 11:47 pm by dglow »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #559 on: 02/23/2017 12:48 pm »
Cross-posting as useful background:

Quote
IRDM CEO: SpaceX says rocket-build rhythm improves after June & we shld get quicker rate for our 65 to-be-launched sats on 7 Falcon 9s.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834759735668772864

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