SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[Comga]

 It is not clear how to apply what russianhalo117 has shown to the Manifest page.
You could quote the first post in one to show where the manifest stood at the end of 2016.
But I wouldn't peg the transition to the end of the calendar year when the official announcement of RTF will be more significant.  We can wait a few extra days, or start the "new year" a few days early, when that switch is thrown, IMO.
Regardless, my preference is that the first post of this thread ALWAYS have the manifest of future launches.
There is another thread for what has been launched.  That is the appropriate place for historical records and statistics.
If someone needs more records than what is in the first post here they can go there.   
It is something to look forward to eagerly when keeping the last 12 months of launches at the top of the manifest consumes too much space.  
Then you should pick a number and throw the oldest one out whenever a new one is added. 
The current number seems fine to me.

[rockets4life97]

Keep the last 8 or 10 launches above the line and remove them one by one as new launches are completed. No need to re-start at the beginning of a new year.

[starhawk92]

OK, I sense perhaps keeping the manifest rolling, then on 1-17-2017, the JSON-3 mission would "roll off", and we'd keep a one year history in the table along with whatever we know of the future.

Sound OK?

[gongora]

This Tronador project has always moved slowly. And the present government seems to have limited the funds available for the local space related activities.
http://argentinaenelespacio.blogspot.com.ar/2016/12/menor-inversion-en-el-sector-espacial.html#more

From the article...

CONAE is currently developing SAR missions SAOCOM-1A and 1B with launch dates for 2017 and 2019, ...

Looks like SAOCOM-1A hasn't slipped lately, 1B slipped a little.

[starhawk92]

NET DATE    BOOST(Core)  1S Tgt      PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  -----------  ------      -----------------------       ---  ------  ----
2016-01-17  F9(19)       JRTI        Jason-3 [1]                   LEO  553     LC4E
2016-03-04  F9(22)       OCISLY      SES-9 [2]                     GTO  5300    LC40
2016-04-08  F9(23)       OCISLY      Dragon (CRS-8) [3]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-05-06  F9(24)       OCISLY      JCSAT-14 [4]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-05-27  F9(25)       OCISLY      Thaicom 8 [5]                 GTO  3100    LC40
2016-06-15  F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B [6] &     GTO  1960    LC40
                                     ABS-2A [6]                         2240
2016-07-18  F9(27)       RTLS        Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-08-14  F9(28)       OCISLY      JCSAT-16 [8]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-09-03  F9(29)       PAD         AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40


[1] Json-3 Updates / Discussion
[2] SES-9 Updates / Discussion
[3] CRS-8 Updates / Discussion / Return
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates / Discussion / Post-Launch Article
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[7] CRS-9 Updates / Discussion / Static Fire Article / Launch Article / Return
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates / Discussion / Pre-launch Article / Launch Article
[9] AMOS-6 Updates / Discussion 

[starhawk92]

Posted 2016 for retrospective as requested by some.  This information will not be pulled out of the current manifest!  Current manifest will age until 1 year or 10 launches, whichever comes first.

I'll probably keep a separate file for 2017 as things roll off so the full year snapshot can be presented about a year from now.

[gongora]

Tweet from Matt Desch:

Our date is now public. Next Sunday morning, Jan 8 at 10:28:07 pst. Iridium NEXT launch #1 flies!

So that should be 18:28:07 UTC

[Star One]

Jeff Foust – ‏@jeff_foust
At #ExoPAG mtg, NASA’s Martin Still says TESS exoplanet mission on track, but Dec. launch on F9 could slip due to SpaceX schedule issues.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/816015605748867073

[Robotbeat]

They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?

[rockets4life97]

They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?

Scheduled isn't the right word. There are 33 launches that were supposed to launch in 2017 or before when the contract was signed or a recent update.

I'd be curious to know what the internal number SpaceX is shooting for. My guess (since SpaceX sets aspirational goals) is something like 25.

[gongora]

Latest preliminary placeholder is now January 26 per L2 KSC schedule update. The above still applies.

[Comga]

Latest preliminary placeholder is now January 26 per L2 KSC schedule update. The above still applies.

Looking like NET

2017-01-09  F9(30)       JRTI        Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-01-26  F9           OCISLY      Echostar 23 [11]                  GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-02-08  F9            RTLS        Dragon (CRS-10)  [16]          LEO   10000   LC39A

[starhawk92]

How far can Echostar get pushed before the CRS-10 date is impacted?  Is there a priority between these two payloads?

[gongora]

How far can Echostar get pushed before the CRS-10 date is impacted?  Is there a priority between these two payloads?

I would expect NASA to let Echostar go first (first launch from a new pad ).  I doubt the CRS-10 date is really firm yet.

[gongora]

Tweet from NASA_TESS

After review of the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle certification schedule & anomaly recovery @NASA_TESS launch date has moved to NET 3/20/18

[Comga]

They really have 33 launches scheduled for 2017?

Tweet from NASA_TESS

After review of the SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle certification schedule & anomaly recovery @NASA_TESS launch date has moved to NET 3/20/18

Now it's a mere 31.
That's one every 12 days. 
If Iridium NEXT launches next Thursday they will be on pace.   

[rockets4life97]

Another core sighting at Hawthorne curtsey of reddit user MasturGrunt.

The SES-10 refurbished core? Although as far I as I know there was never a report of it going back to Hawthorne.

Otherwise, it must be the the flight after that. Bulgariasat, Koreasat, or Inmarsat look to be next after SES-10.

[gongora]

Another core sighting at Hawthorne curtsey of reddit user MasturGrunt.

The SES-10 refurbished core? Although as far I as I know there was never a report of it going back to Hawthorne.

Otherwise, it must be the the flight after that. Bulgariasat, Koreasat, or Inmarsat look to be next after SES-10.

We really have no idea what the flight order will be after CRS-10 and SES-10.  Could also be Formosat/SHERPA, NROL.  Inmarsat 5-F4 and SES-11 have been announced as first half of 2017, so I'm kinda assuming they'd be in the second quarter.  It will probably be a couple more months before we have much idea what's going on with their schedule.

[rockets4life97]

I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7. If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.

Still pretty impressive to see a booster going for testing when there is 4 launches (Iridium, Echostar, CRS-10, and SES-10) that seemingly have first stage cores already tested.

[Comga]

I took a look at Salo's US Launch Schedule and he has a recent date for CRS-11 as NET March 7.
If that holds, that would seem to be the next flight if SES-10 is late February.
(snip)

CRS/SpX-11 is extremely unlikely to fly on March 7.  Given the current target date of Feb 8 for SpX-10, its planned duration at the ISS would overlap with an SpX-11 launched on that date.  That target date is only four weeks from today, and it's supposed to be the second flight from LC-39A, which has yet to see any rocket erected on it.
Then there is the berthing of OA-7, which was supposed to happen in the same early March timeframe.
That says that this booster is probably for some other missions.