-
#40
by
rockets4life97
on 09 May, 2016 22:58
-
My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we... 
I think it is more than safe to assume that SpaceX will at least try to land S1 on OCISLY even if it crashes and puts a whole in the ship (see SES-9). Doesn't mean a successful landing, but I expect we'll see a landing attempt every launch. If the weather is super bad or OCISLY can't make it out to sea in time, then I think we'll see a water landing. More data == better models.
-
#41
by
LouScheffer
on 09 May, 2016 23:19
-
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...
BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes... 
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO. Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery. Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
5500 kg makes sense. They delivered SES-9 (at 5270 kg) to an orbit with apogee quite a ways above GEO. If you increase the mass to 5500 kg, the delta-V will drop by about 70 m/s (assuming 111t fuel, 4.54t empty mass, 348 ISP). But this would still give an apogee (just barely) above GEO, so it's a legitimate GTO delivery (although with more delta V to GEO, about 1815 m/s instead of the 1775 of SES-9).
-
#42
by
starhawk92
on 10 May, 2016 12:16
-
My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...
This is true -- OCISLY is assumed for all GTO, RTLS assumed for LEO. Out west, the jury is still out on what parameters make JRTI vs. RTLS a solid assumption, so they are blank.
Completely agree that any of this can change when official word comes from SpaceX. Until then, we guess our best!
-
#43
by
beancounter
on 10 May, 2016 15:09
-
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year. Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year. That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course. Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why? Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
-
#44
by
nadreck
on 10 May, 2016 15:26
-
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year. Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year. That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course. Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why? Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
Looks to me like they are now in their stride, as long as it doesn't break, to do two a month for the rest of the year which would put the total at 17.
-
#45
by
gongora
on 10 May, 2016 15:34
-
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year. Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year. That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course. Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why? Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
Payloads shouldn't be the problem now, they still haven't caught up on stuff they were supposed to launch last year. They've really just begun trying to up the production rate, the second east coast pad isn't completed yet, and the western launch range may be down for maintenance most of the summer. If they can get their production/testing ramped up in the next few months they can still get closer to 18 than 12. They're on track to have 6-7 launches in the first half of the year, so you're assuming no improvement at all in the next 7 months.
-
#46
by
wannamoonbase
on 10 May, 2016 15:46
-
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year. Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year. That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course. Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why? Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
Looks to me like they are now in their stride, as long as it doesn't break, to do two a month for the rest of the year which would put the total at 17.
Remember they are ramping up still,what they are doing now won't be the pace for the rest of the year.
They are in a 3-4 week cadence now and if they get to a 2-3 week cadence by December that is a massive improvement.
2 keys to getting the volume up:
1) Iridium and other launches from VAFB
2) Launching 1 or 2 reused boosters
-
#47
by
gongora
on 11 May, 2016 13:21
-
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding:
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.
Echostar 105=SES 11
-
#48
by
tleski
on 11 May, 2016 14:26
-
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding:
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.
Echostar 105=SES 11
SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's space page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm
-
#49
by
starhawk92
on 11 May, 2016 19:20
-
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding:
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.
Echostar 105=SES 11
SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's pace page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm
I don't see a location, sounds geostationary to me -- should we assume F9 from LC40 for GTO?
-
#50
by
tleski
on 11 May, 2016 19:41
-
If you follow the link you will see that Gunter has this info. It will go to GEO from the Cape according to his information.
-
#51
by
starhawk92
on 11 May, 2016 19:46
-
Excellent, thanks! I'll be more diligent with the links!
-
#52
by
nadreck
on 12 May, 2016 18:16
-
Tweet from Peter B. de Selding:
EchoStar: EchoStar 23 Ku-band sat, for 45 deg West over Brazil, to launch Q3 this yr by SpaceX. EchoStar 105, w/ SES, is on SpaceX in Q4.
Echostar 105=SES 11
SES11 is already on the list but EchoStar 23 should be added. It is listed on Gunter's pace page as slated for launch in 2016. The satellite is made by Space Systems/Loral and based on SSL-1300 bus, no mass is available.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/echostar-23.htm
Did this just get squeezed into this summers manifest? If so does it represent something we already expected slipping significantly (ie giving up its place for this one) or does it possibly represent a scheduled core (say the one for SES-10) that is freed up by the first re-use launch? Or, more boldly, is this the first re-use launch? (though my bets are on SES-10 using the CRS-9 core)
-
#53
by
bstrong
on 12 May, 2016 18:36
-
Did this just get squeezed into this summers manifest? If so does it represent something we already expected slipping significantly (ie giving up its place for this one) or does it possibly represent a scheduled core (say the one for SES-10) that is freed up by the first re-use launch? Or, more boldly, is this the first re-use launch? (though my bets are on SES-10 using the CRS-9 core)
It was mentioned in this article back in February, so it's not a super recent addition:
http://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2016/02/25/echostar-excited-about-2016-launches-musing-jupiter-3-next-gen-hts/Echostar seems to be somewhat secretive about their plans, so I'm guessing they just asked SpaceX not to announce it when they booked the reservation.
-
#54
by
AncientU
on 13 May, 2016 00:58
-
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.
s
Seems like SpaceX is falling behind their launch rate target for the year. Seems more than likely that they'll do say 12 - 14 max for the year. That's still double what they managed last year but we all know why of course. Still better than 1 a month would be an indication that they've got on top of production and launch issues that have been reducing launch rates. Could they do better and if so why? Or do I have this backwards and it's really payloads that are delaying launches?
Thanks.
Payloads shouldn't be the problem now, they still haven't caught up on stuff they were supposed to launch last year. They've really just begun trying to up the production rate, the second east coast pad isn't completed yet, and the western launch range may be down for maintenance most of the summer. If they can get their production/testing ramped up in the next few months they can still get closer to 18 than 12. They're on track to have 6-7 launches in the first half of the year, so you're assuming no improvement at all in the next 7 months.
Payloads will be limiting after a few months if the reuse begins to work. 1-2 re-launches doubles the effective production rate; 5-10 re-launches provides capacity to launch the world's 100 per year even at a production rate of only one per month -- which they probably are doing now. Payload increase will probably never outpace SpaceX's capacity to launch with LC-40, 39A, and 4E on line. Then add Boca Chica...
-
#55
by
wannamoonbase
on 13 May, 2016 02:12
-
Payloads will be limiting after a few months if the reuse begins to work. 1-2 re-launches doubles the effective production rate; 5-10 re-launches provides capacity to launch the world's 100 per year even at a production rate of only one per month -- which they probably are doing now. Payload increase will probably never outpace SpaceX's capacity to launch with LC-40, 39A, and 4E on line. Then add Boca Chica...
Yep, they are a few years away from that though.
It's going to be very interesting to see the capacity catch up and how much of the market SpaceX can take from others.
-
#56
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 13 May, 2016 11:58
-
-
#57
by
AncientU
on 13 May, 2016 13:03
-
Eutelsat launch seems to be firming up as mid-June (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1533755#msg1533755). IF that holds it could be SpaceX are finally getting into the long promised increase in launch frequency.
Another new feature is the availability of a string of payloads manifested and ready at both east and west launch sites. They've displayed good cadence from LC-40 in short bursts, but never two launch sites/coasts in parallel... that will be proof that they've staffed up sufficiently for two independent sites. How they run LC-40 and 39A in tandem will also be interesting to watch.
-
#58
by
StarTracker
on 13 May, 2016 13:25
-
Window: 05:40PM-TBA EST
A nit: the eastern time zone is currently on Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) (UTC-4), therefore EST is technically incorrect. (A possible workaround to prevent future confusion {especially when discussing pads on both coasts} would be to provide the time as "5:40 PM Local" or "1740L")
-
#59
by
gongora
on 13 May, 2016 15:29
-
Site: C=Canaveral(UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
V=Vandenberg(UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
SLC-4E: Active for F9
B=Boca Chica(UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
Site preparation work underway
Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November,
time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time
LOCAL LV Core Ret- MASS No-
EST. DATE TIME/UTC S/N urn PAYLOAD(S) ORB (kg) Site tes
---------- -------- --- ------ --- ---------------------------- --- ----- ----- ---
2015-12-22 F9 1019 L ORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2 LEO 1892 C-40
2016-01-17 1042/-8 F9 S Jason-3 LEO 553 V-4E
2016-03-04 1835/-5 F9 S SES-9 GTO 5271 C-40
2016-04-08 1643/-4 F9 1021 S CRS-8 LEO ~9k C-40 23
2016-05-06 0121/-4 F9 1022 S JCSAT-14 GTO 4696 C-40 24
2016-05-27 1740/-4 F9 1023 S Thaicom 8 GTO 3025 C-40 25
2016-06-15 1029/-4 F9 S Eutelsat 117W B & ABS-2A GTO 4200 C-40 26
2016-07-18 0045/-4 F9 L CRS-9 LEO ~9k C-40 27
2016-08-14 0126/-4 F9 S JCSAT-16 GTO ~4600 C-40 28
2016-09-01 0907/-4 F9 N/A AMOS-6(destroyed in pad test) GTO 5500 C-40 29
2017-01-14 0954/-8 F9 1029 S Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) PLR 9600 V-4E 30
2017-02-19 0939/-5 F9 1031 L CRS 10 LEO ~9k C-39A 31
2017-03-16 0200/-4 F9 1030 X Echostar 23 GTO ~5500 C-39A 32
2017-03-30 1827/-4 F9 1021.2 S SES-10 GTO 5282 C-39A 33
2017-05-01 0715/-4 F9 1032 L NROL-76 LEO ? C-39A 34
2017-05-15 1921/-4 F9 1034 X Inmarsat 5 F4 GTO 6086 C-39A 35
2017-06-03 1707/-4 F9 1035 L CRS 11 LEO ~9k C-39A 36
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-06-23 1410/-4 F9 1029.2 S BulgariaSat-1 GTO 3669 C-39A 37
2017-06-25 1325/-7 F9 1036 S Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) PLR 9600 V-4E 38
2017-07-xx 1935/-4 F9 X Intelsat 35e GTO ~6k C-39A 39
2017-07-late F9 ? SES-11/Echostar 105 GTO 5400 C-39A 40
2017-08-01 F9 L CRS 12 LEO ~9k C
2017-08 F9 L Air Force X-37B OTV-5 LEO 5400 C
2017-08 F9 ? FORMOSAT-5 SSO ~525 V-4E 41
2017-08-24 F9 S Iridium NEXT (Flight 3) PLR 9600 V-4E
2017-Q3 F9 S Koreasat-5A GTO 3500 C
2017-10 F9 S GovSat-1 (SES-16) GTO 4000 C
2017 H LL? Falcon Heavy Demo Flight C-39A 50
2017-10 F9 S Iridium NEXT (Flight 4) PLR 9600 V-4E
2017-10 F9 ? SAOCOM 1A SSO 3000 V-4E
2017-11 F9 L CRS 13 LEO ~9k C
2017-Q4 F9 S SES-14 (NASA GOLD payload) GTO 4200 C
2017-12 F9 S Iridium NEXT (Flight 5) PLR 9600 V-4E
2017 H LL? STP-2 (US Air Force) MEO ~8k? C-39A
2017-Q4 F9 Hispasat 1F GTO ~5k C 60
2017-12 F9 Bangabandhu GTO ~3500 C 61
2017 F9 Paz & co-passenger SSO 1400 V-4E 62
2018 F9 Spaceflight SSO-A (575km) SSO V-4E 70
2018 F9 S Es'hail 2 GTO ~3k C
2018 F9 ? PSN-6 and co-passenger GTO 5000 C
2018-02 F9 L CRS 14 LEO ~9k C
2018-02 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 6) PLR 9600 V-4E
2018-03 F9 ? CCtCap DM1 LEO C-39A
2018-03-20 F9 NASA (TESS) HEO 325 C
2018-04 F9 L CRS 15 LEO ~9k C
2018-04 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 7) PLR 9600 V-4E
2018-H1 F9 CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test SUB C-39A
2018-H1 F9 Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C GTO >5400 C
2018-H1 F9 Telstar 19 Vantage GTO >5400 C
2018-05 F9 USAF GPS III A-2 MEO 3880 C
2018-06 F9 Telkom 4 GTO C 68
2018 F9 CCtCap DM2 (Crew) LEO C-39A
2018-mid F9 Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FO SSO ~6000 V
2018 H Arabsat 6A GTO ~6k C/B
2018-08 F9 L CRS 16 LEO ~9k C
2018-Q3 F9 RADARSAT Constellation SSO 1400 V-4E
2018 F9 OHB SARah 1 SSO ~2200 V-4E
2018-10 F9 L CRS 17 LEO ~9k C
2018-Q4 F9 Spaceflight SSO-B (500km) SSO V-4E 70
2018-Q4 F9 GiSat-1 GTO ~6k C/B
2018-H2 F9 Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km) GTO C 70
2018-H2 F9 Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km) GTO C 70
2018-12 F9 L CRS 18 LEO ~9k C
2018-end H ??? SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar TLI ~10k? C-39A 99
2018 F9 SAOCOM 1B SSO 3000 V-4E
2019 F9 CRS 19-20 LEO C
2019-02 F9 USAF GPS IIIA-3 MEO 3880 C
2019 F9 OHB SARah 2/3 SSO ~3600 V-4E
2019-H2 F9 Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO) SSO V-4E 70
2020 F Inmarsat 6 F1 GTO C/B 65
2020 H Red Dragon (Mars Surface) TMI ~11k C/B
2020-H1 F9 Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km) GTO C/B 70
2020-H1 F9 Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO) SSO V-4E 70
2020-2021 H ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEA GTO 6400 C/B 69
2021-04 F9 SWOT LEO 2000 V-4E
TBD (NET 2022) H ViaSat 3-Asia (maybe) GTO 6400 C/B 69
TBD F Inmarsat GTO C/B
TBD (2019-2024) F9 Commercial Crew (6 flights) LEO C-39A
TBD (2019-2024) F9 CRS-2 (6+ flights) LEO C
TBD F EutelSat
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes
L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches)
Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg
Upcoming SpaceX Talks
NOTES:
[20] Orbcomm OG2 Launch 2 [FCC F9-21]
[21] Jason-3 [FCC F9-19]
[22] SES-9 [FCC F9-22]
[23] CRS-8 [FCC 23] Discussion / Updates
[24] JCSAT-14 [FCC F9-24] Discussion / Updates / L2 Coverage / Pre-Launch Article /
Post-Launch Article
[25] Thaicom-8 [FCC F9-25] Discussion / Updates / L2 Coverage / Post-Launch Article
[26] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A [FCC F9-26] Discussion / Updates / L2 Coverage /
Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[27] CRS-9 [FCC 27] Discussion / Updates / L2 Coverage /
Return Updates / Static Fire Article / Launch Article
[28] JCSat-16 [FCC F9-28] Discussion
[29] Amos-6 [FCC F9-29] Discussion
[30] Iridium NEXT Flight 1 [FCC F9-30] Discussion
[31] CRS-10 [FCC 32] Discussion
[32] EchoStar 23 [FCC F9-31] Discussion
[33] SES-10 [FCC F9-33] Discussion
[34] NROL-76 [FCC 1363] Discussion
[35] Inmarsat 5 F4 [FCC F9-34] Discussion
[36] CRS-11 Discussion
[37] Bulgariasat-1 Discussion Launch Window 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)
[38] Iridium Next (Flight 2) [FCC 1338] Discussion
[39] Intelsat 35e [FCC 1372] Discussion Launch Window 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
[40] SES 11/Echostar 105 Discussion
[41] FORMOSAT-5 Discussion
[50] FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033 Side1:1023.2 Side2: 1025.2
[60] Hispasat 1f also called Hispasat 30W-6
[61] Bangabandhu News Article / Satellite Order Press Release / Gunter's Site
[62] Paz (Hisdesat) post in manifest thread / article in DW
[65] Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention
[68] Telkom 4 links Gunter
[69] Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.
Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
[70] Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule
[99] SpaceX announcement
[xx] Europasat/HellasSat 3 moved to different launch vehicle
[xx] ABS-8 Satellite build cancelled
[xx] SHERPA cancelled from FORMOSAT-5 flight
Competitions for future payloads:
STP-3Air Force First 6 EELVL2 notes on manifest:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42839.msg1683254#msg1683254
