SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Cross posting due to list of further launches expected this year:

Peter B de Seldings write-up of the JCSAT-16 launch: http://spacenews.com/spacex-successfully-launches-jcsat-16-satellite-faces-crowded-end-year-manifest/

It includes details of 9 further launches still expected this year! (Let's take discussion of that to SpaceX manifest thread)

Edit: Here are the 9 announced launches

Cape Canaveral:
— Spacecom, Amos-6.
— EchoStar Corp., EchoStar-23.
— SES, SES-10.
— SES, SES-11/EchoStar-105.
— NASA, Dragon CRS-10
— KT Corp. of South Korea, Koreasat-5A.

Vandenberg:
— Iridium Communications, Iridium Next 1-10.
— National Space Program Office (NSPO) of Taiwan, Formosat-5; and Spaceflight Inc.’s Sherpa
— Iridium Communications, Iridium Next 11-20.

[Norm38]

A question on backlog.  They've made good progress since last year's stand down.  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?

[gongora]

A question on backlog.  They've made good progress since last year's stand down.  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?

AMOS 6 has been waiting for quite a while.  Formosat/Sherpa was scheduled to fly late last year but not sure it was ever ready to fly then.  Nothing else has really been waiting yet (Iridium satellite production got delayed, they couldn't have launched before August anyway).  SpaceX has a very large manifest for the next 18 months so they need to pick up the pace now.  The launches can get booked at different intervals from when the satellites are expected to be ready, so it doesn't really launch just in the order contracts are signed.

[smoliarm]

...  Does that list above reflect the order in which launches were booked?
...

In general - no.

...  Who's been waiting the longest for their ride, and what's the average delay now from booking to launch?

Here is a list of contract announcements I have, for all 2016 SpaceX launches.

First-line format:
Launch Date....Payload ....Manufacturer....Customer....Contract announced date

Jan 17, 2016....Jason-3....Thales Alenia....NASA/NOAA....Jul 16, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/news/2013/02/08/spacex-wins-first-science-mission-nasa-jason-3
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2012/jul/HQ_C12-029_RSLP-20_Launch_Services.html
renewable

Mar 04, 2016...SES-9...Boeing...SES (Europe)...Sep 12, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/ses-and-spacex-announce-contract-three-satellite-launches
http://www.satnews.com/cgi-bin/story.cgi?number=78555613
SES-9 + two options

May 06, 2016....JCSat-14....SS/L....SKY Perfect JSAT, Japan....Jan 10, 2014
http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/01/10/spacex-awarded-launch-contract-leading-asia-pacific-satellite-operator

May 27, 2016....Thaicom 8....Orbital....Thaicom (Thailand)....Apr 30, 2014
http://spacenews.com/40420orbital-to-build-spacex-to-launch-thaicom-8/
(could be an exercised option from the original Thaicom 6 contract)

Jun 15, 2016....Eutelsat 117W. B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A....Boeing....Asia Broadcast Sat./Satmex....Mar 13, 2012
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/spacex-signs-launch-agreements-asia-broadcast-satellite-and-satmex
Second launch of a two-launch contract

Aug 14, 2016....JCSat-16....SS/L....SKY Perfect JSAT, Japan....Sep 10, 2014
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/509640670852972544      

FUTURE flights:

Sep 04, 2016....AMOS-6....Israel Aerospace Industries (& MDA)....Spacecom (Israel)....Jan 28, 2013
http://www.spacex.com/press/2013/01/28/spacecom-and-spacex-announce-agreement-amos-6-satellite-launch

Sep 20, 2016....Iridium Next Flt.1....Thales Alenia....Iridium....Jun 16, 2010
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/iridium-and-spacex-sign-major-commercial-launch-contract
http://www.spacenews.com/contracts/061610spacex-iridium-ink-492-million-launch-services-deal.html
Multi-launch contract

Oct 2016....SES-10....Airbus Defence and Space ....SES....Feb 20, 2014
http://spacenews.com/39558updated-ses-books-falcon-9-for-2016-launch/
two-launch contract

Nov-Dec 2016....SES-11/Echostar 105....Airbus Defence and Space ....SES / Echostar....Feb 20, 2014
Second launch for the above contract

Oct 2016....Formosat-5 / Sherpa SSO....NSPO....NSPO (Taiwan)....Jun 14, 2010
http://www.spacex.com/press/2012/12/19/spacex-and-national-space-organization-nspo-sign-contract-launch
Falcon-1 contract, originally scheduled for December 2013 from SpaceX's launch site on Omelek Island

Oct-Nov 2016....Echostar 23....SS/L....Echostar.... ? ?
Could not find any announcement for this launch contract
 
Nov 2016....KoreaSat 5A (Mugungwha 5A)....Thales Alenia Space ....Korea....Sep 10, 2014
https://twitter.com/yangsj11/status/509822768288772096

[rockets4life97]

To follow-up on Smoliarm's post, the link's provided show the original launch dates for the upcoming launches were:
2015 for Amos-6
2016 for SES-10
2016 for Echostar 23
Q4 2016 for SES-11/Echostar 105
Q4 2016 for KoreaSat 5A

So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.

[AncientU]

There was a tweet last night by Peter Selding that said SES was 'likely' riding first reused booster.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40769.msg1568948#msg1568948

Edit: Found tweet and corrected post accordingly

[Survtech]

So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.

Hmmm.  That statement doesn't jibe with the Launch Schedule at Spaceflight Now (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/.  According to them, Iridium Next 1-10 (Sept. 19/20) was delayed from July and Sept. 12; SES 10 (October) was delayed from Q3; Formosat 5 & Sherpa (Late Oct.) was delayed from May, June, July and September; EchoStar 23 (Q4) was delayed from Q3; SES 11/EchoStar 105 (Nov.) was delayed from October, etc., etc..

It doesn't appear SpaceX will actually catch up until well into 2017 and that's not counting the hugely delayed launches of Falcon Heavy.

[docmordrid]

To be fair, Iridium's recent delays have been on their end - faulty radios.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/11/10/radio-bug-to-keep-new-iridium-satellites-grounded-until-april/

The first 2 came off the line in June.

[Ragmar]

So after last week's exciting SmallSat Conference, it was fascinating to hear how SpaceX acknowledges the smallsat market, but plans on pursuing it through lots of rideshares (specifically SpaceFlight Induestries).  Gwynne said the following:

“We really love and appreciate working with aggregators of small satellite missions,” she said. “We’ve got a brand-new agreement with Spaceflight for four additional flights over the next four or five years.”  http://spacenews.com/spacex-offers-large-rockets-for-small-satellites/#sthash.Ogbnvq6o.dpuf

So, how many launches does Spaceflight Industries have with SpaceX?  Prior to the conference, we had 1) Sherpa (Fall 2016), and 2) SSO (with the Moon Express rover) in 2017.  Are there four more, making six launches total?  Or is it just two more (including the current launches).  Anyone have insight?

[gongora]

I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.

[russianhalo117]

I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.

SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.
For reference from acquired SI documents:
Spaceflight's SHERPA system comes in multiple versions. Initial versions are: SHERPA aka SHERPA 0 (base version), SHERPA 400, SHERPA 1000, and SHERPA 2200. SHERPA operates in one of three modes:
1. as a non-propulsive free-flyer spacecraft, functioning independently of the launch vehicle and dispensing payloads a pre-determined time after launch vehicle separation (SHERPA 0 only)
2. as a propulsive free-flyer spacecraft, hosted payload platform, separating from the launch vehicle and operating as a spacecraft bus under its own power, propulsion and attitude control for several years (initial versions: SHERPA 400, SHERPA 1000, SHERPA 2200)
3. as a non-separating payload adapter dispensing payloads while connected to the launch vehicle (SHERPA 0 only)

[Ragmar]

I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.

SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.

Do you have the source for this?  This may answer it all.

[russianhalo117]

I'm assuming six total right now, but we really don't know.

SI said that they have an agreement with SpaceX for a minimum of 1 SSO flight a year and up to one a quarter as needed initially. SSO is not a mandatory destination for SHERPA flights.

Do you have the source for this?  This may answer it all.

Emailing SI and documents from SI presentations.

[gongora]

SI also has GTO flights listed in the future, but they don't mark on their manifest which are SpaceX flights. I'm guessing one of their 2018 flights is a dedicated F9.

[rockets4life97]

So, after the Amos-6 launch, SpaceX should be more or less caught up on commercial satellite launches on Falcon 9.

Hmmm.  That statement doesn't jibe with the Launch Schedule at Spaceflight Now (https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/.  According to them, Iridium Next 1-10 (Sept. 19/20) was delayed from July and Sept. 12; SES 10 (October) was delayed from Q3; Formosat 5 & Sherpa (Late Oct.) was delayed from May, June, July and September; EchoStar 23 (Q4) was delayed from Q3; SES 11/EchoStar 105 (Nov.) was delayed from October, etc., etc..

It doesn't appear SpaceX will actually catch up until well into 2017 and that's not counting the hugely delayed launches of Falcon Heavy.

As mentioned above, Iridium's delays have been payload related. The same goes for Formosat 5 and Sherpa.

When the initial press release says 2016, I would hardly consider delays from Q3 to Q4 to be behind schedule. Launch contracts are for a window larger than a month. If the SES and Echostar launch in the next several months than they will likely be considered on schedule.

My comment related to Falcon 9. FH delays are a different discussion entirely. 

[ZachS09]

Even though AMOS 6 will launch on either September 3 or September 4, I'm guessing the actual launch date will be the night of September 3 in the Eastern Daylight Time zone while it'll be September 4 in the Coordinated Universal Time zone.

[cuddihy]

To be fair, Iridium's recent delays have been on their end - faulty radios.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/11/10/radio-bug-to-keep-new-iridium-satellites-grounded-until-april/

The first 2 came off the line in June.

No, that's not fair to Iridium.

Those delays are the usual kind you find only after LRIPs are off the production line. Iridium delayed their satellites by about 6-8 months when SpaceX delayed the rides, because you don't build hardware too early or you end up on a cul-de-sac. It's likely the same delay would have happened 6 or 8 months earlier if SpaceX hadn't fallen behind.

[abaddon]

The first two Iridium satellites were supposed to fly on Dnepr.  So I'm not entirely sure that rationale is correct.

[gongora]

Spacecom: Our Amos-6 telecom sat, w/ HTS payload for Eutelsat/Facebook, scheduled for launch by SpaceX Falcon 9 at 03h ET (07h GMT) Sept 3.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/765882346100891648

[starhawk92]

Do we know if Dragon capsules are also reusable, or should be reusable in the future?  Are they designed to be?

Yes, and the answer is yes.
IIRC CRS-11 should see the first reuse of a pressure hull.

(Some other components are already reused.)

Is there interest in tracking Dragon reuse as well as S1?  I know it's not as spectacular . . . .