SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[russianhalo117]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.

[russianhalo117]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

This site says it's the 24th of 2016, which means we are missing some:
https://spacexstats.com/missions/koreasat-5a

This site says it's NET Dec-2017:
https://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2654

We currently have it as NET 2016-11 . . . . what to do, what to do . . . .

Koreasat-5A does not equal Inmarsat 5-F4

[gongora]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.

So do we think this might actually launch with SpaceX?  Seems strange to even be asking what rocket a payload will be launching on four months from now.  These are fairly heavy satellites (6100kg).

[russianhalo117]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

and with the recurring Proton-M woes Inmarsat is looking into additional backup launch options according to its recent shareholders meeting. the Proton-M launch option with recent anomaly investigation delays and traditional schedule backlog delays factored in 5-F4 would either just barely make or if delays get longer not meet its current planned service activation date.

So do we think this might actually launch with SpaceX?  Seems strange to even be asking what rocket a payload will be launching on four months from now.  These are fairly heavy satellites (6100kg).

There is not any information at this time stating a contract cancellation or change of payload or change of launcher. Inmarsat is currently leaving all launch options on the table, but is in the process of expanding its launch options because of massive schedule delays with Proton-M because that launcher has been grounded for the time being. The next Proton-M flight will now be a federal launch to satisfy ILS customers trust in the launcher but even that flight has now been given a NET date.

[Dazzle]

Many thanks for such a great reference!

One small improvement that I would recommend is changing the order of the columns.  The primary mission is the payload, not the first stage landing, so personally I would move the "1S Tgt" column to be the last (far right).

This would avoid the problem when scanning the table, for example the first Jason-3 row, where one's eye first encounters the orange unsuccessful landing on JRTI before the green successful primary mission!  I would much prefer to see the primary mission success first (and the orbit, mass, pad, etc) and then finally the first stage landing details.

[Lar]

The order now is chronological, the first stage lands (or doesn't) before the payload is delivered.  I could see the argument for switching them so payload is just before first stage recovery, but not for putting first stage all the way to the right.

[gongora]

Tweet from Peter B. de Selding

Spaceflight: 90-sat Sherpa tug on Q4 SpaceX launch is sold out. Space available for Q4 2017 on dedicated Falcon 9.

Sun Synch Express now Q4 2017.

[Dante80]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/762793850255450112

Formosat 5/SHERPA in late October.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

EchoStar counting on 4 launches Oct-Dec: 2 on SpaceX (Echo 23 & Echo 105/SES-11), Echo 21 on ILS Proton & Echo 19/Jupiter 2 on ULA Atlas 5.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/763043101854367744

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Shotwell: we have a new agreement with Spaceflight for four add’l dedicated missions in next 4-5 years. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128

[gongora]

Shotwell: we have a new agreement with Spaceflight for four add’l dedicated missions in next 4-5 years. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763058621353648128

Should we assume the 2017 Sun Synch Express is one of those?  So three additional flights 2018-2021?  Or is it actually four more flights 2017-2021?

[Shanuson]

David Hurst
‏@OrbitalDave

Shotwell: 1st Falcon Heavy mission expected Q3 of 17 #smallsat

https://twitter.com/OrbitalDave/status/763060858528215040

[gongora]

David Hurst
‏@OrbitalDave

Shotwell: 1st Falcon Heavy mission expected Q3 of 17 #smallsat

https://twitter.com/OrbitalDave/status/763060858528215040

The guy posting from the conference on Reddit said that's the STP-2 mission in Q3 2017, which would be the second or third FH flight.  Can't wait until they post a video of the talk so we don't have to rely on a bunch of possibly misleading tweets.

[AncientU]

There is not going to be any sudden rush to buy reused cores, especially before one has flown. I haven't seen anything to suggest both SES flights will be on used boosters. SES 10 has been shown as a 4th quarter launch on the SES site for quite awhile now, and I haven't seen anything to suggest it will fly sooner.  Let's give SpaceX a chance to actually qualify a booster for reflight and their customers a chance to get comfortable with the idea before we start assuming everything will suddenly start flying on reused cores.

A little update on reuse:

"Shotwell: “a lot of interest” from customers on flying on reused Falcon 9. May fly two of them this year.

SES-10 and SES-11? This would make sense.

[starhawk92]

That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.

[gongora]

Tweet from Peter B. de Selding

SES/Inmarsat/EchoStar/IRDM/Spaceflight & others' statements suggest SpaceX plans 10 launches Aug-Dec: 6 GTO&1 LEO frm CCAFS, 3 LEO frm VAFB.

Not sure if this is the actual plan, but if so it would be: JCSAT-16, AMOS-6, Iridium NEXT (Flight 1), SES-10, Echostar 23, Formosat-5 & Sherpa, SES-11/Echostar 105, CRS 10, Iridium NEXT (Flight 2), Inmarsat 5 F4.  I'd be really impressed if they actually managed 17 F9's this year, and I'm sure their customers would be happy.  Maybe they'll give a little schedule clarity next month at WSBW.

[AncientU]

That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.

24 isn't coming back per EM

[starhawk92]

That really lines up:
SES-10 using S1-0023
SES-11 using S1-0027

Both have a "lightly used", LEO background so should be in far better shape than S1-0024 which has been refired at least three times at McGregor.

24 isn't coming back per EM

Understood on 24, what I should have said is that 24 has been refired three times and 23/27 have clearly had less abuse, so they seem primed and ready to do exactly what you are thinking!

[gongora]

ViaSat 3 launch should be in the 2020-2022 range now.  SpaceX may not launch the first one.  ViaSat has contracts with Arianespace and SpaceX to launch the first two, and a reservation (not yet a contract) with SpaceX for a later one.

SpaceNews: ViaSat urges commercial airlines to do the math on satellite connectivity

ViaSat plans to launch the first ViaSat-3 in 2020 or 2021.

[Comga]

And now the manifest is out of date again, with successful launch of JCSAT-16 and first stage landing on OCISLY!