SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[whitelancer64]

Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

Actually, launch dates for flights to the ISS are notoriously unstable - there are so many competing variables that cause delays and slips in the schedule.

[Comga]

Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 12 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 24 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

I wouldn't consider the CC dates stable, but we can only put down the best information we have   When you say there are only two dates instead of three, I'm assuming you mean May and August?  The in-flight abort is not a CCTCAP milestone (it's left over from the previous contract) and won't appear on CCTCAP updates.

I agree that ISS dates are contingent on many things, but also agree that we should put down the best information that we have, some of which is embedded in the FPIP page posted above.  (That's why I added the two dates in red.)

And what's with trying to take a vacation from NSF?

[AncientU]

There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

[starhawk92]

Commercial Crew dates -- are these too far in advance?

Flights to the ISS should not slip by much, so not too worried about the future dates which have been provided.  However, two Commercial Crew dates are floating around and we have more than that on the list now.

CC Demo1 (May 12 2017)
CC In-flight abort test (June 2017)
CC with Crew (August 24 2017)

Are these sensitive to ISS operations, and therefore should also be considered "more stable" for NET dates?  And why are there only two dates instead of three?

Thanks for any help with clarification on this, everyone!!

I wouldn't consider the CC dates stable, but we can only put down the best information we have   When you say there are only two dates instead of three, I'm assuming you mean May and August?  The in-flight abort is not a CCTCAP milestone (it's left over from the previous contract) and won't appear on CCTCAP updates.

I agree that ISS dates are contingent on many things, but also agree that we should put down the best information that we have, some of which is embedded in the FPIP page posted above.  (That's why I added the two dates in red.)

And what's with trying to take a vacation from NSF?

Thanks, Comga!  Also, to be perfectly clear, it was a vacation from my job, not NSF.   

[starhawk92]

There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?

[AncientU]

There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?

As far as I know, no schedule is set for either.  Russians on contract for the 2018 flights, so both crew flights probably NET 2019.  Boeing will also get a pair, so expect that they'll alternate... but just speculating.
Current crew rotation flights are about quarterly, so both SpaceX guaranteed flights could easily go in 2019?

[francesco nicoli]

current manifest says 4 in october 2016, is that anywhere near credible?
if it is not, will be FH or one of the 4 Falcons to be delayed?

[starhawk92]

There should now be two Crew rotation flights after the two demo flights (maybe one in 2018 and second in 2019?).
Also should be six CRS-2 flights (CRS-21-26?), starting in 2020 after CRS-20.
Too early to put down the ConnX flights, but they could also start around 2020 from Vandenberg.

I saw NASA has agreed to a second crew launch, do you have a NET year/month?

Sir, CRS-21 through CRS-26; is that quarterly over a year and a half, or three per year in 2021 and 2022?  Any insights?

As far as I know, no schedule is set for either.  Russians on contract for the 2018 flights, so both crew flights probably NET 2019.  Boeing will also get a pair, so expect that they'll alternate... but just speculating.
Current crew rotation flights are about quarterly, so both SpaceX guaranteed flights could easily go in 2019?

How about mission names, instead of repeating the self-repeating "CREW Dragon (with Crew)"?  Should we call them ISS Crew Transport 1/2/3/4, etc?  or CCt 1/2/3/4?

[starhawk92]

current manifest says 4 in october 2016, is that anywhere near credible?
if it is not, will be FH or one of the 4 Falcons to be delayed?

It would be surprising.  SES-10 and Echostar 23 have had date discussion recently, but SES-11 so close behind seems unlikely.

I don't think the F9 backlog will bother Heavy, they have their own timeline which includes pad, testing, transport, etc.  Just my opinion, however!

[abaddon]

I don't think the F9 backlog will bother Heavy, they have their own timeline which includes pad, testing, transport, etc.  Just my opinion, however!

It is possible SpaceX could alleviate the backlog of EC launches by utilizing 39A for F9 launches, which might then push FH back as a result.  Also worth remembering that 39A is the crew launch pad so if FH keeps slipping it might take back seat to work to support that effort, which is higher priority.

SpaceX has yet to demonstrate an ability to launch from multiple pads within the same general time window yet, so that's another bottleneck.  Having the pads so close together might help a little bit if they can't fully staff two sites yet.

[gongora]

Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.

[wannamoonbase]

Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.

It would be helpful if sometime before the end of this year they launched one from 39A and verify the whole complex through a launch.  Get it right with a F9 before trying a FH.

They may not need it, but it helps to have it operational.

[Comga]

There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy,  LC-39A, SES-10, and all the other what-ifs and should-haves.
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

[whitelancer64]

Probably not more than two launches in October, SES 10 and maybe Echostar 23.  SpaceX really doesn't need 39A to handle any non-Commercial Crew F9 launches in 2017, SLC-40 should be able to handle them.  A good chunk of their 2017 manifest is for Vandenberg.

It would be helpful if sometime before the end of this year they launched one from 39A and verify the whole complex through a launch.  Get it right with a F9 before trying a FH.

They may not need it, but it helps to have it operational.

I thought that was always the plan? SES-10 and 11, and probably CRS-10 prior to the Falcon Heavy demo?

[abaddon]

There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy,  LC-39A, SES-10, and all the other what-ifs and should-haves.

Yes, and it's called the SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4.  I'm not sure how we are supposed to discuss the SpaceX manifest without referring to FH, LC-39A, etc which all are featured in that manifest.  I feel like the majority of discussion on this thread has in fact been regarding the manifest.

This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

It sounds like you think it should be more of an Updates and less of a Discussion, which is fine, but is not the current format of the thread.  For myself, I suggested a stickied Updates thread and a separate not-stickied  Discussion thread.  But what we have is a combination of the two.

[gongora]

There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy,  LC-39A, SES-10, and all the other what-ifs and should-haves.
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

We don't have separate update and discussion threads for the SpaceX manifest (and I'm not sure we need separate threads).  Discussion of SES-10 came up because the manifest table currently shows an impossible number of launches for October.  Obviously some of them are not going to launch in October, hence discussion of which ones will launch.  If you don't want any discussion or questions at all then there need to be separate threads.  Personally I think we've kept this thread close enough to its purpose that we don't need to create another one.

[gongora]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

[Lar]

Discussing whether discussion is on topic and how much discussion is... is not on topic. Yes, some discussion is ok. But please try to have it be about the manifest. That's a very narrow topic.

[starhawk92]

There is a lot of opining here.  Good discussions but....
There are lots of places to discuss to discuss Falcon Heavy,  LC-39A, SES-10, and all the other what-ifs and should-haves.
This was supposed to be a thread about the announced dates and details of upcoming launches.

I would think appropriate discussion for this thread would include observations about past launch rates/forward tempo, when milestones for a given launch are met or missed which would impact dates, and of course the relevance of sources offered as updates.  Best possible information wins.

Status of new tech, infrastructure, and other such topics have their own thread and those who participate there would like the information -- share it there!

I don't think we've strayed too far here as yet, so please keep the updates coming!!

EDIT:  And what Lar said!

[starhawk92]

If you ever read the old Inmarsat announcement of SpaceX launch contracts where the Europasat launch was announced you may have noticed that the Inmarsat 5 F4 satellite is listed there as a SpaceX launch.  I was actually poking around on Google yesterday to see if anything popped up about this launch and didn't find much.  It's not currently on our manifest, and Gunter has it listed as a Proton launch on his site, but I guess we can't completely write it off yet...

SpaceNews: Inmarsat says mobile focus better suited to global satellite price downturn

Inmarsat has another SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, of the Inmarsat 5 F4 Global Xpress satellite, set for late this year. To protect against possible delays, it has purchased an option with International Launch Services for a Russian Proton launch.

This site says it's the 24th of 2016, which means we are missing some:
https://spacexstats.com/missions/koreasat-5a

This site says it's NET Dec-2017:
https://www.satbeams.com/satellites?id=2654

We currently have it as NET 2016-11 . . . . what to do, what to do . . . .