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#20 by starhawk92 on 06 May, 2016 16:36
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@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown? Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?
yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.
Sorry, forgot to reply to this one: schaban has it right. Just waiting to find out about RTLS vs JRTI on the west coast.
Edit/gongora: Below is a backup of starhawk92's table format from June 21, 2017
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0
List of past launches can be found here
Launch Windows, if known, are in the footnotes.
NET DATE LV REUSE ID RTRN PAYLOAD(S) ORB MASS PAD
---------- -- ----- ------ ---- ----------------------- --- ------ -----
2016-05-06 F9 24 OCIS JCSAT-14 [4] GTO ~5000 LC40
2016-05-27 F9 25 B1023 OCIS Thaicom 8 [5] GTO 3100 LC40
2016-06-15 F9 26 OCIS Eutelsat 117 West B [6] & GTO 1960 LC40
ABS-2A [6] 2240
2016-07-18 F9 27 RTLS Dragon (CRS-9) [7] LEO 10000 LC40
2016-08-14 F9 28 OCIS JCSAT-16 [8] GTO ~5000 LC40
2016-09-03 F9 29 PAD AMOS-6 [9] GTO 5500 LC40
2017-01-14 F9 30 B1029 JRTI Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10] PLR 800x10 LC4E
2017-02-19 F9 31 B1031 RTLS Dragon (CRS-10) [16] LEO 10000 LC39A
2017-03-16 F9 32 1030 EXPD Echostar 23 [11] GTO ~5500 LC39A
2017-03-30 F9 23-1 1021.2 OCIS SES-10 [12] GTO 5300 LC39A
2017-05-01 F9 33 1032 RTLS NROL-76 [18] LEO LC39A
2017-05-15 F9 1034 EXPD Inmarsat 5-F4 [21] GTO 6086 LC39A
2017-06-03 F9 1035 RTLS Dragon (CRS-11) [20] LEO 10000 LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-06-23 F9 1029.2 OCIS BulgariaSat-1 [22] GTO 3669 LC39A
2017-06-25 F9 1036 JRTI Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) [19] PLR 860x10 LC4E
2017-07 F9 EXPD Intelsat 35e [17] GTO ~6000 LC39A
2017-07 F9 Formosat-5 [13] SSO 525+ LC4E
2017-07 F9 OCIS SES-11/Echostar 105 [15] GTO 5400 LC39A
2017-08-01 F9 RTLS Dragon (CRS-12) LEO 10000 LC40
2017-08 F9 OCIS Air Force X-37B OTV-5 LEO 5400 KSC/CC
2017-08-24 F9 JRTI Iridium NEXT (Flight 3) PLR 860x10 LC4E
2017-09 F9 OCIS Koreasat 5A GTO 3500 LC39A
2017 FH (C) OCIS Falcon Heavy Demo Flight LC39A
25-1 (B) B1023 RTLS
(B) RTLS
2017-10 F9 SES-16/GovSat GTO 4000 LC39A
2017-10 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 4) PLR 860x10 LC4E
2017-10 F9 PAZ PLR 1350 LC4E
2017-10 F9 SAOCOM 1A SSO 3000 LC4E
2017-11 F9 Dragon (CRS-13) LEO 10000 LC40
2017 FH US Air Force (STP-2) MEO LC39A
2017-12 F9 SES-14 / GOLD GTO 4200 LC40
2017-12 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 5) PLR 860x10 LC4E
2017-12 F9 RTLS Bangabandhu-1 GTO ~3500 LC40
2017-12 F9 Hispasat 1f GTO ~5000 LC40
2018-01 F9 Spaceflight SSO-A SSO LC4E
2018-01 F9 OCIS Es’hail 2 GTO ~3k LC40
2018-01 F9 PSN VI + US Govt GTO 5000 LC40
2018-02 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 6) PLR 860x10 LC4E
2018-02 F9 Dragon (CRS-14) LEO 10000 LC40
2018-03 F9 RTLS CCTCAP DM1 LEO TBD LC39A
2018-03-20 F9 NASA (TESS) HEO 325 LC40
2018-04 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight 7) PLR 860x10 LC4E
2018-04 F9 Dragon (CRS-15) LEO 10000 LC40
2018 F9 CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test SUB LC39A
2018-05 F9 RTLS CCTCAP DM2 LEO TBD LC39A
2018-05 F9 USAF GPS III A-2 MEO 3680 LC40
2018-06 F9 Iridium NEXT (Flight
& PLR 860x5 LC4E
GRACE-FO
2018-06 F9 Telkom 4 GTO ? ?
2018-07 F9 Spaceflight GTO-1 GTO ? ?
2018-07 F9 Spaceflight GTO-2 GTO ? ?
2018-08 F9 Dragon (CRS-16) LEO 10000 LC40
2018-10 F9 Spaceflight SSO-B SSO ? LC4E
2018-10 F9 GiSAT-1 GTO LC40
2018-10 F Lunar Dragon TLI 10000 LC39A
2018-10 F9 Dragon (CRS-17) LEO 10000 LC40
2018-12 F9 Dragon (CRS-18) LEO 10000 LC40
2018 F9 Telstar 18 Vantage / GTO >5400 ?
Apstar-5C
2018 F9 Telstar 19 Vantage GTO >5400 ?
2018 FH Arabsat 6A GTO LC39A
2018 F9 RADARSAT Constellation SSO 1400 LC4E
2018 F9 OHB SARah 1 SSO ~2100 LC4E
2018 F9 SAOCOM 1B SSO 3000 LC4E
2019-02 F9 GPS III A-3 MEO 3680 LC40
2019-05 F9 Dragon (CRS-19) LEO 10000 LC40
2019-07 F9 Spaceflight SSO-C SSO ? LC4E
2019 F9 CREW Dragon (with Crew) LC39A
2019 F9 CREW Dragon (with Crew) LC39A
2019 F9 Dragon (CRS-20) LEO 10000 LC40
2019 F9 OHB SARah 2/3 SSO ~1800x2 LC4E
2020 F9 Spaceflight SSO-D SSO ? LC4E
2020 F9 Spaceflight GTO-C GTO ? ?
2020 F9 Inmarsat 6 F1 GTO 6400 LC39A
2020 FH ViaSat 3 GTO 6400 LC39A
2021-04 F9 SWOT SSO LC4E
2020-05 FH Red Dragon (Mars Surface) TMI 11000 LC39A
TBD F9 Bigelow Aerospace LC40
TBD F9 Eutelsat unknown
MASS: kilograms
PAD: LC40 is at Cape Canaveral; LC39A at Kennedy Space Center; LC4E at Vandenberg
Successful
Unsuccessful
Mars!!!!
Moon!!!!
[A] Google GMT Clock
[3] CRS-8 Updates / Discussion / Return
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates / Discussion / Post-Launch Article
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[7] CRS-9 Updates / Discussion / Static Fire Article / Launch Article / Return
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates / Discussion / Pre-launch Article / Launch Article
[9] AMOS-6 Updates / Discussion
[10] Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) Update / Discussion
[11] EchoStar 23 Updates / Discussion
[12] SES-10 Updates / Discussion
[13] Formosat 5/Sherpa Updates /Discussion
[14] Sherpa SSO Updates / contents to be delivered
[15] SES-11/Echostar 105 Updates / Discussion
[16] CRS-10 Updates / Discussion
[17] Intelsat 35e Updates / Discussion Launch Window 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
[18] NROL-76 Updates / Discussion
[19] Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) Updates / Discussion Launch Time 1324 PDT
[20] CRS-11 Updates / Discussion
[21] Inmarsat 5 F4 Updates / Discussion
[22] Bulgariasat-1 Launch Window 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)
Last 10 Edits:
Jun 06 edit/gongora: Slipped Bulgariasat 2 days. Added X-37B in August 2017
Jun 05 edit/gongora: Marked CRS-11 successful. Removed speculative Mars mission dates.
Jun 02 edit/gongora: Removed Eutelsat Quantum
May 25 edit/gongora: Moved Iridium Flight 2 to June 25 (1325 PDT). Moved Intelsat 35e to July 1.
May 24 edit/gongora: Moved Koreasat-5A to August (educated guess), CCiCap In-Flight Abort to 2018
removed estimated launch month from FH Demo and STP-2
May 23 edit/gongora: Moved Eutelsat Quantum to 2019
May 21 edit/gongora: Added Telkom 4, June 2018
May 20 edit/gongora: Moved CCtCap DM-1 to March 2018
May 17 edit/gongora: Moved PSN-6 to 2018
May 14 edit/gongora: updated masses (Telstar, Es'hail-2, Hispasat, GiSat) and core numbers for multiple missions
May 04 edit/gongora: Moved SSO-A to 2018
All comments and updates are welcomed! Thank you to all contributors! -
#21 by tleski on 06 May, 2016 17:20
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Spaceflight Now shows JCSAT-16 launch in August instead of September.
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#22 by Miker66 on 07 May, 2016 15:56
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Also, Es'hail-2 has moved to 1Q 2017 https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites/index/
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#23 by Miker66 on 07 May, 2016 16:04
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I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.
"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June? -
#24 by sewebster on 07 May, 2016 16:20
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I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.
"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?
NROL-37? -
#25 by francesco nicoli on 07 May, 2016 16:22
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test-fly of one of the used stages?
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#26 by gongora on 07 May, 2016 16:40
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I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.
"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?
You are reading too much into it, and your speculation is indeed wild. It just says that the mission after Thaicom 8 hasn't been officially announced. SpaceX isn't officially announcing their launch schedule more than one mission ahead right now except for CRS flights. If the Eutelsat/ABS payload is ready next then it would be flown next. You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26? -
#27 by Miker66 on 07 May, 2016 16:40
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NROL-37?
No, not NROL-37. The text I quoted was from the Falcon 9 section. You can see it here: http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html -
#28 by Miker66 on 07 May, 2016 16:43
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You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?
No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A. -
#29 by gongora on 07 May, 2016 16:58
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You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?
No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.
Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month? They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad. They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something. And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days. Not gonna happen. -
#30 by Miker66 on 07 May, 2016 17:29
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Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month? They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad. They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something. And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days. Not gonna happen.
OK, I bow to your superior knowledge of the status of 39A. So assuming you're right and 39A isn't an option, it would have to be 4 from LC40 in about 30 days - one every 10 days or so. -
#31 by starhawk92 on 09 May, 2016 13:18
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test-fly of one of the used stages?
Is there room? 5/26 and 6/27 means a possible opportunity around 6/13, but that's packing them pretty tightly, right? and wouldn't things at McGregor have to be a lot more interesting by now/ery soon to support three launches in June?
As of this post, the retesting thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40086.0) has no record of the CRS-8 Core-23 being retested.
If 6/13 is an opportunity, then there should be a payload for it arriving at the cape late this month, correct?
For these reasons, the manifest does not reflect this information. But it certainly has all of our attention, methinks!!
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#32 by John Alan on 09 May, 2016 17:31
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2016-06 F9(26) OCISLY Eutelsat 117 West B & GTO 5500 LC40
Asia Broadcast
Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...
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#33 by LastStarFighter on 09 May, 2016 19:50
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2016-06 F9(26) OCISLY Eutelsat 117 West B & GTO 5500 LC40
Asia Broadcast
Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...
Where did 5500kg come from? I thought this was a basic red light of the previous Eutelsat/ABS dual launch that was 4200kg. -
#34 by starhawk92 on 09 May, 2016 20:09
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#35 by LastStarFighter on 09 May, 2016 20:23
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Can we agree on 4800kg?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_115_West_B
That says 2205kg for Eutelsat and 1954kg for ABS. So 4159kg for both. You sure you're not looking at lbm and not kg? Or am I missing something? -
#36 by John Alan on 09 May, 2016 20:26
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Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...
BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up (to Geo) will NOT be recovered at times during the next 9 months...
They have a crispy stage now to look at... and put engineering changes into the build schedule later this year...
Meanwhile... gotta fly what they got already late into build to meet customer needs...
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#37 by deruch on 09 May, 2016 20:32
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Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO. Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery. Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
If so, then this launch may be recovered...
BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes... -
#38 by Lar on 09 May, 2016 20:42
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Discussing whether stages were damaged or whether engines are reusable/thrown away is off topic for a manifest thread
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#39 by John Alan on 09 May, 2016 20:44
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Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO. Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery. Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
If so, then this launch may be recovered...
BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...
Agreed... those are effective 2018 specs... and they believe (as do I) they can hit that target in time...
But the crispy stage coming in tonight with the panels yanked off in a hurry says they found a limit... (IMHO)
Engineering changes likely coming to TPS... along with the boost uprate planned...
My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...
&
