SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[Comga]

If we are looking that far ahead, Musk has stated that SpaceX will launch something to Mars at each opportunity
http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm shows the following optimum dates for the next six opportunities

5/2/2018     (Red Dragon)
6/19/2020
8/9/2022
9/26/2024
11/16/2026
1/4/2029

At some point SpaceX will launch earlier and stage in orbit, but for now, these would be good (red) placeholders

[starhawk92]

"Missed it by THAT much!"

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg! 

Yea, I rounded it off, because I could not find an exact value for ABS-2A, so I figured someday someone would point out that it's not 2243 kg.  Both numbers are based on a 4200kg total weight, which I assume is also rounded off to some degree.

[Comga]

"Missed it by THAT much!"

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg! 

Yea, I rounded it off, because I could not find an exact value for ABS-2A, so I figured someday someone would point out that it's not 2243 kg.  Both numbers are based on a 4200kg total weight, which I assume is also rounded off to some degree.

And I highly encourage rounding to at least 10's, as there are probably a bunch of little pieces in the few kilogram range that make the "payload mass" dependent on exactly what is included.  That is, going down to the kilogram is probably false precision.

That's why it might be more appropriate for large payloads, like Dragon, to state the payload mass in tons. (metric, of course)

[smoliarm]

For Iridium NEXT launches:
http://spacenews.com/iridiums-spacex-launch-slowed-by-vandenberg-bottleneck/
the article gives better estimate for payload mass, 9,600 kg total:

Each Iridium Next satellite will weigh 860 kilograms at launch, for a total satellite payload mass of 8,600 kilograms, plus the 1,000-kilogram dispenser, which will make it one of heavier missions for SpaceX.

[Comga]

Launch time for SpX-10 on November 11 is estimated to be 8:22 AM EST.  (Daylight savings time will end the previous weekend.)  This is based on the orbit precessing 5.02 degrees/day to the west, causing the launch window to get 20.08 minutes earlier each day.

[jpo234]

2022-08     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-4 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2024-09     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2026-11     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A
2029-01     FHeavy                   Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)   TMI  11000   LC39A

Shouldn't this be:

2022-08     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2024-09     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2026-11     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A
2029-01     BFR                         BFS (Mars Surface)                   TMI  236000  LC39A

[gongora]

We have absolutely no idea what rockets will be launching from where in the 2020's for the SpaceX campaigns to Mars, or what their payloads will be.

[Ben the Space Brit]

I think that it's also worth noting that every launch after Red Dragon 1 in 2018 is notional. From what Elon has said, the progress will be dependent on a successful mission. So, Mission 'B' won't happen until there's been a successful 'Mission A'.

[smoliarm]

One more detail on schedule of the Iridium NEXT flights:

The three-month gap applies ONLY to the period between the first and second launches:

The creditors and Iridium’s insurance underwriters had also asked that the first batch of satellites be tested for three months in orbit before a second batch was launched, to verify their design and performance.

http://spacenews.com/iridiums-spacex-launch-slowed-by-vandenberg-bottleneck/

After that, the launches are planned every two months:

A second 10-satellite SpaceX launch would occur in October, with the five remaining launches occurring every 60 days thereafter, Iridium Chief Executive Matthew J. Desch said in a conference call with investors.

http://spacenews.com/iridium-frustrated-by-russian-red-tape-to-launch-first-10-iridium-next-satellites-with-spacex-in-july/

Also, from the first SN article:

...That would mean a second launch no earlier than December, at the earliest. Desch said Iridium’s goal of having all Iridium Next satellites in service by the end of 2017 would be a challenge but was still feasible

According to these quotes, the Iridium flights should look like this:

2016-09-12...Iridium NEXT (Flight 1)
2016-12........Iridium NEXT (Flight 2)
2017-02........Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)
2017-04........Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)
2017-06........Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)
2017-08........Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)
2017-10........Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)

[jpo234]

I think that it's also worth noting that every launch after Red Dragon 1 in 2018 is notional.

I think we are all aware of this.

However, if the manifest includes these speculative post 2018 launches, it should use the best information available. And the WaPo interview says, that Spacex hopes that the 2022 launch window will see the first unmanned flight of the MCT to Mars.

[Comga]

We have absolutely no idea what rockets will be launching from where in the 2020's for the SpaceX campaigns to Mars, or what their payloads will be.

I wholeheartedly agree.

My strong preference is not to fill blank spaces with guesses.  It would be better to put TBD for the rocket, the launch site, and the payload mass,  even the target orbit.  (They could launch to a staging orbit with some future architecture.) 
Let's just put in what SpaceX, satellite manufacturers, the range and others "in the know" have stated, and keep this free of conjecture.

[Okie_Steve]

We could do like the old map makers did and just say "Here there be dragons" - ducks 

[smoliarm]

a little correction:

...
2017-06     F9                       CCCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test                  LC39A
...
2017-08     F9                       CREW Dragon (In-flight Abort Test)         LC39A
...

- it's the same thing listed twice
so it would be better to remove one - AND - in the line left it would be nice to show "SUB" or "no orbit" in "ORB" column.

[gongora]

CRS-9 is now July 18 at 12:45am EDT (UTC-4)

[tleski]

sources:

jeff_foust: NASA announces next SpaceX cargo mission to the ISS slips 2 days to July 18: https://t.co/5RdET2VJbX
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/745376787908026368

flatoday_jdean: NASA says SpaceX's next ISS cargo launch now NET 12:45am ET July 18 (was July 16).
https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/745379994105323520

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Cross-posting:

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes 6m6 minutes ago

Spacecom of Israel: We are planning for an Aug. 22 launch, on SpaceX Falcon 9, of our Amos-6 Ku-/Ka-band telecom sat for 4 deg W.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/745918143797862401

[Comga]

The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.

[Robotbeat]

The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.

That all sounds exactly like what we heard earlier. 1 flight in 2018, at least 2 in 2020, MCT in 2022, and hopefully people in 2024/5 if all goes according to plan is what Musk said earlier.

[Comga]

The June 20 print issue of SpaceNews says (p7):
"Elon Musk told the Washington Post that SpaceX will land a total of three Red Dragon capsules on Mars by 2020 and then fly a spacecraft in 2022 knows as the Mars Colonial Transporter, which would eventually carry humans to Mars.  Musk said SpaceX would have to "get lucky" in order to start flying humans to Mars by 2024."

I cannot find the source on Washington Post. Can anyone else
It sounds somewhat garbled (3 landings in 2 opportunities?) and even more optimistic than normal for SpaceX.
However, for this manifest, we should be putting in either MCT or TBD beyond a couple of Mars launch windows.

That all sounds exactly like what we heard earlier. 1 flight in 2018, at least 2 in 2020, MCT in 2022, and hopefully people in 2024/5 if all goes according to plan is what Musk said earlier.

Thanks, but can you point (link?) to either that discussion or the WashPo article?

[gongora]

Thanks, but can you point (link?) to either that discussion or the WashPo article?

Washington Post: Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ mission to Mars