SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[Kryten]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2m2 minutes ago
Iridium says 1st SpaceX launch of 10 2nd generation sats planned for 12 Sept from VAFB, not July as previously targeted.

[Ben the Space Brit]

I've got a feeling that the cause for the Iridium NEXT slip is the prolonged maintenance shut-down of the Western Range. I bet that there'll be a bit of a backlog for the 30th SW to work through. Not as big as a similar shut down on the other coast would cause but still a backlog.

[tleski]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

[starhawk92]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?

[wannamoonbase]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?

Let it ride man, let it ride.

[gongora]

SES is showing 4Q on their web site for SES-10 now.

For the Vandenberg flights we have this Tweet from Peter B. de Selding

Iridium CEO Desch: We've purchased 7 new Falcon 9s, no reusable stages in the mix. We think our Sept launch is next SpaceX launch from VAFB.

[AncientU]

Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  3m
pbdes: IRDM CEO Desch: Delay of 1st launch to 12 Sept due to crowded VAFB manifest, not to satellite or SpaceX issues.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/742769391788556288

Any thoughts on if this means the rest of the constellation slips 2 months, or if everything at VAFB slips two months?

Or should we just let it ride for now?

Article mentions insurers requiring three months after first launch before second.  Puts Iridium 2 in December.


http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35112.msg1549462#msg1549462

[Comga]

Tweet from Peter B. de Selding

SpaceX confirms Iridium launch NET 12 Sept to occur before Formosat 5 & Spaceflight Sherpa tug of 87 sats from VAFB.

[AncientU]

Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

[SLC]

Interesting article here  http://www.americaspace.com/?p=93456  by Jim Hillhouse: "A Review of SpaceX's Launch Manifest History".  Seems thorough and well researched, with a good discussion at the end correcting a few details.

[ZachS09]

Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

This early July launch could be JCSat 16. Unless the spacecraft is not at the launch site yet.

[abaddon]

Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

This early July launch could be JCSat 16. Unless the spacecraft is not at the launch site yet.

Seems as likely to be a misunderstanding as a real attempt to fill in a launch slot.  We're going to get an unannounced launch barely over two weeks from today, when they just launched today?  Seems very unlikely.

[Comga]

"Missed it by THAT much!"

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40088.msg1549525#msg1549525

Eutelsat 117 B is 1963 kg! 

[dmc6960]

Last 10 Edits:
6/16 Eutelsat/ABS mission above the line
6/16 Moved Formosat/Sherpa to after Iridium Flight 1 + 3 day min assumed turnaround at VAFB (this thread)
6/16 Moved all 7 Iridium Flights to the minimum 3 month launch interval (this thread)

Curious on today's edits...

Where did this data of a 3 day turnaround between Iridium 1 and Formosat come from?  Seems unrealistic.  Only data I can find is that Iridium will come first with a NET of Sept 12th.  Don't make launch day predictions without hard data.  Keep reasonable speculation to the month or quarter.  Recommend remark Formosat as NET Sept, or Q3 like SFN reports.

Regarding the 3 month interval between Iridium flights; thats only between the first and 2nd launch (insurance requirement).  All other launches after that do not have this restriction.

[ZachS09]

Last 10 Edits:
6/16 Eutelsat/ABS mission above the line
6/16 Moved Formosat/Sherpa to after Iridium Flight 1 + 3 day min assumed turnaround at VAFB (this thread)
6/16 Moved all 7 Iridium Flights to the minimum 3 month launch interval (this thread)

Curious on today's edits...

Where did this data of a 3 day turnaround between Iridium 1 and Formosat come from?  Seems unrealistic.  Only data I can find is that Iridium will come first with a NET of Sept 12th.  Don't make launch day predictions without hard data.  Keep reasonable speculation to the month or quarter.  Recommend remark Formosat as NET Sept, or Q3 like SFN reports.

Regarding the 3 month interval between Iridium flights; thats only between the first and 2nd launch (insurance requirement).  All other launches after that do not have this restriction.

The three-day turnaround refers to the WorldView 4 launch on September 15.

[rockets4life97]

Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

The idea of another flight before CRS-9 can officially be put to rest. The launch manifest on the SpaceX website is now showing CRS-9 as the next flight.

[cscott]

Possible fill-in for early July -- no info on payload:

Right now, SpaceX is tentatively scheduled for another launch July 1.

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog/2016/06/spacex-launch-coming-up-ula-sets-next-date.html

The idea of another flight before CRS-9 can officially be put to rest. The launch manifest on the SpaceX website is now showing CRS-9 as the next flight.

That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

[dmc6960]

That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

Yesterday it listed the Eutelsat mission as the next mission.  So whomever updated it for CRS-9 didn't put it in the completed list like they should have.

[rockets4life97]

That same page doesn't list the eutelsat mission anywhere, either as completed or upcoming, so l'd take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

Yesterday it listed the Eutelsat mission as the next mission.  So whomever updated it for CRS-9 didn't put it in the completed list like they should have.

This is a common practice, I've noticed watching this page. SpaceX seems to wait a few days to make sure that the satellites are in good working condition before moving the missions to the complete list. In the past, they've been slow to update the next mission box. Maybe the new communication director has something to do with this?

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Since Musk specifically mentioned 2 RD in 2020 you may want to start adding 2020 flights:

RD-2 NET 2020-5
RD-3 NET 2020-6

Also add the CRS for the year if the number of CRS flights for 2020 can be found.
Until D2 does its first manned flight demo, the schedule for when the up to 6 operation flights is unknown as to how many and which years.

Only 6 months and 2020 will be just 3 years away. The 3 years into the future is the start of the launch scheduling gate. Getting on the range schedule early for SpaceX may become more important because of the higher number of launches. First come first served policy at the ranges.

Added: With 18 flights for 2017 out of the eastern range that is a flight every 20 days. So getting on the schedule early for things like CRS, CC and RD will be very important because they are the most difficult to schedule and reschedule. Rescheduling RD means waiting another 780 days. There are also other launches for NASA already on the range schedule for 2020 to go to Mars.