SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

[russianhalo117]

Seems like the move forward of Eutelsat/Abs could be an indication of another launch between this one and CRS-9 (especially if CRS-9 moves to the left some).

Is there any indication of what the next launch would be? Are there any birds that could be moved up?

I haven't seen an indication of anything that could launch before CRS-9.  I think it's unlikely anything launches before then.

CRS-9 is being delayed, but haven't heard duration.  There is a big opening in the schedule, but I sere a core and payload to fill it?

yes and yes. Valid as of two weeks ago is that shipping reviews and packing in the shipping container has been completed for both AMOS-6 and JCSAT-16. I have found no public indication yet that the satellites have arrived in CCAFS for processing at either offline or online processing facilities on and off of base.

[rockets4life97]

Roscosmos confirms Soyuz launch to ISS is postponed to July 7 from June 24. CRS-9 is expected to be delayed as well until after the new crew (with the training to install the IDA) arrives.

[mn]

Roscosmos confirms Soyuz launch to ISS is postponed to July 7 from June 24. CRS-9 is expected to be delayed as well until after the new crew (with the training to install the IDA) arrives.

A: July 16 is still after July 7, do they need to be on iss for a certain period of adjustment time before they are fully ready to work?

B: http://spacenews.com/russia-delays-next-soyuz-launch-to-space-station/ "...NASA spokesman Dan Huot said June 6 that the Dragon launch remains scheduled for July 16...."

[gongora]

On another ISS note, Jeff Foust tweeted this yesterday about a CRS-11 payload:

Hertz: Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) instrument to be delivered to Cape tmrw for launch to ISS next February.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

@pbdes  KTSat: We plan November SpaceX launch of our Koreasat 5A & early 2017 Ariane launch of Koreasat 7. But launch dates are moving targets....

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/740867500754280449

[smoliarm]

IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/

[gongora]

IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/

Unless you can find a really solid and really recent reference for that I'm not going to believe it.

[smoliarm]

IIRC, the Dragon CRS-10 flight is to be the last from SLC-40.
All following CRS are going to fly from SLC-39A.

Sorry - can't find a reference for this bit, hope somebody will help/

Unless you can find a really solid and really recent reference for that I'm not going to believe it.

As I said, I can't.
If you want to help: I saw this info here, at NSF, and it was either at the LC-39A transition thread, or at crew Dragon progress. And, it was a while ago, not recently - that's why I cant find it.

*...really solid and really recent reference ...*
- we are talking about plans (and - SpaceX plans). So, I'm afraid that "really solid" is not a good formula 

[gongora]

*...really solid and really recent reference ...*
- we are talking about plans (and - SpaceX plans). So, I'm afraid that "really solid" is not a good formula 

Yeah, I think it was the plan, and it might still happen.  But I'm just not going to count on it until we see what happens with the Falcon Heavy Demo flight, and how much time they need to prep another FH for the STP-2 flight.  If CRS-11 stays at the beginning of February then it's possible, but if the FH Demo gets delayed any more then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.  I would guess by late 2017 they'd be able to commit to running CRS flights out of LC-39A.

[smoliarm]

...
Yeah, I think it was the plan, and it might still happen.  But I'm just not going to count on it until we see what happens with the Falcon Heavy Demo flight, and how much time they need to prep another FH for the STP-2 flight.  If CRS-11 stays at the beginning of February then it's possible, but if the FH Demo gets delayed any more then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.  I would guess by late 2017 they'd be able to commit to running CRS flights out of LC-39A.

IMHO, the Falcon Heavy Demo flight from SLC-39A is not a #1 priority for NASA and, by extension, for its contractor.
My guess: the priority is Commercial Crew Dragon flights, and here is firm deadline, the end of 2018.
If this is true, then an early validation of the pad and all its GSE - with CRS Cargo Flights - it is desirable (pretty much).

>then it would make a lot more sense to run CRS-11 out of SLC-40.
- in my view, it ("sense") completely depends on how the priorities are defined. Which we do not (and will not) know at "really solid" level. And I'm not sure this discussion belongs to the topic (although may be).

My point is - for now we can leave CRS-11 as it is, but the rest of CRS flights show as going out of SLC-39A. Just to show, that we know about these plans (to transfer all ISS flights to one pad).

Anyway, most of info in the Main Table is preliminary/imprecise/un-solid - yet the table is very useful.

[gongora]

Next launch moved to 6/15, 10:29AM EDT/2:29PM UTC (multiple twitter posts, including SpaceX)

[beancounter]

Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers

[yokem55]

Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers

Given that there are 3 launches out of Vandenberg, and hopefully a couple from 39a before the end of the year, as long core production keeps up at 1 every 3 weeks, the manifest should be doable. The bigger issue might be payload availability at the right times, but not impossible.

[whitelancer64]

Just can't see SpaceX managing 3 launches in July and September meaning no way of making their target of 18 for the year. 
So far averaging 1 a month which is more realistic and where they were last year before their little issue, with perhaps adding a 3rd every 2 months.  Yes and more likely now they've got the bugs out of FT. 
So I'd reckon they'll do 8 or 9 for the rest of the year which would give them 14 or 15.  IMHO a great result. 
Oh and I'm not counting FH or a re-flown F9 1st stage in these unless they carry a commercial payload - unlikely.
Cheers

SpaceX is ramping up their launch pace - they're currently doing better than one per month:

34 days between SES-9 and CRS-8
27 days between CRS-8 and JCSat-14
22 days between JCSat-14 and Thaicom 8

If ABS-2A / Eutelsat 117 West B launches on the 15th, that's 18 days after Thaicom 8

Don't forget that some of the upcoming launches are out of Vandenberg, meaning they can keep up this fast pace at their SLC-40 pad and add to the total from the West coast. And at some point LC-39A will be operational, too.

[JBF]

Only if they have a 2nd crew fully trained up.

[Comga]

This is not the Launch Poll thread.
Can we keep this to things actually said about specific launches and not bring in speculation?
There are many other threads for that.
Thanks

[wannamoonbase]

Only if they have a 2nd crew fully trained up.

And production or reuse of cores.

[Lar]

Reminder: While this is an update AND discussion thread,  do think about whether your post is better suited to another thread, this should be manifest related... (that is, about a specific launch being added to the manifest, or removed, or shuffled).... How many launches SpaceX will notch this year is only sort of related. Really only sort of sort of.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Any indication yet that SpaceX are attempting to move something into the 4 weeks between the double-launch and CRS-9 in mid-July?

[gongora]

Any indication yet that SpaceX are attempting to move something into the 4 weeks between the double-launch and CRS-9 in mid-July?

No.

NSF: SpaceX readies another Falcon 9, close in on reuse testing

Following this launch, SpaceX will take a short break of around a month before a mid-July mission involving the launch of the latest Dragon mission to the International Space Station (ISS).