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#400 by Zed_Noir on 30 Nov, 2017 11:18
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What's uncertain is whether or not a live warhead can be attached to these missiles, whether it could be successfully deployed, and whether it could survive re-entry. Without that, which will never be tested, this could still all be a grand poker bluff by NK at this point in time.
The upcoming Minuteman launch from VB won't be.
The Minuteman launch is a bluff in a way. Since neither the USAF or USN have launch a ballistic missile with a live warhead for decades. How could anyone be sure the missiles, especially the payloads will worked in real life? There is some equal mutual level of credibility among all nuclear capable powers right now with no one done a live nuclear tipped missile test for a very long time. Unless someone goad the DPRK into being the only one with a demonstrated working nuke missile currently.
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#401 by Danderman on 30 Nov, 2017 14:15
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It would appear that HS-15 could be HS-13 with an upper stage, much as HS-14 could be HS-12 with an upper stage. And it appears that HS-14 could be a half size demonstration vehicle.
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#402 by russianhalo117 on 30 Nov, 2017 17:23
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We know the reentry vehicles work. only newer fully assembled Warheads for the next generation of the US Nuclear Triad have never been detonated however component level and some integrated tests have been performed.What's uncertain is whether or not a live warhead can be attached to these missiles, whether it could be successfully deployed, and whether it could survive re-entry. Without that, which will never be tested, this could still all be a grand poker bluff by NK at this point in time.
The upcoming Minuteman launch from VB won't be.
The Minuteman launch is a bluff in a way. Since neither the USAF or USN have launch a ballistic missile with a live warhead for decades. How could anyone be sure the missiles, especially the payloads will worked in real life? There is some equal mutual level of credibility among all nuclear capable powers right now with no one done a live nuclear tipped missile test for a very long time. Unless someone goad the DPRK into being the only one with a demonstrated working nuke missile currently. -
#403 by russianhalo117 on 30 Nov, 2017 17:31
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It would appear that HS-15 could be HS-13 with an upper stage, much as HS-14 could be HS-12 with an upper stage. And it appears that HS-14 could be a half size demonstration vehicle.
But HS-13 is thought to be a KN-14 IRBM using solid propellant unless the designation by western intelligence groups is wrong. -
#404 by wolfpack on 30 Nov, 2017 19:51
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No way. The missiles are real. The bombs are real - both products of massive national efforts. Why would they fake the reentry vehicle, a relatively trivial matter by comparison?
- Ed Kyle
I don't doubt that the bombs and missiles are real. But some unseen thing that goes "BOOM" under a mountain isn't necessarily something that can be mounted atop a rocket. That requires miniaturization, acoustic testing and at least an in-flight deployment using a dummy that can be recovered and analyzed. Has the DPRK recovered an RV? These are unknowns. It doesn't mean they don't have the capability, but I refuse to believe the DPRK's statement that their nuclear program is "complete". Hogwash. More likely they're giving themselves an excuse to stop launches and see what's offered up at the bargaining table next. -
#405 by RonM on 30 Nov, 2017 19:55
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What I find fascinating about the video linked a couple messages up-thread are the people visible in the hangar. Kim Jong-un, of course, is right in the middle of everything, even stepping up to help eyeball the exit dimensions as the transporter begins to move. He doesn't look like a figurehead type in these scenes. He's actually getting his hands dirty. There are a couple of men talking with him before the move, and others in the building. Which, if any, is the "chief designer", I wonder?
- Ed Kyle
Kim Jong-un wants to be seen as a hands on leader, the indispensable man needed to run the country.
The video, with its many views of the missile, also serves the purpose of showing the world that North Korea is serious. Experts already know that, but these images will play well on news broadcasts as "talking heads" discuss the issue.
Also gives us a lot to talk about since we got a good look at the missile. -
#406 by Danderman on 01 Dec, 2017 00:40
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It would appear that HS-15 could be HS-13 with an upper stage, much as HS-14 could be HS-12 with an upper stage. And it appears that HS-14 could be a half size demonstration vehicle.
But HS-13 is thought to be a KN-14 IRBM using solid propellant unless the designation by western intelligence groups is wrong.
No. Hwasong-13 is a liquid fueled missile that has never flown publicly. It seems to have been a failed design that may serve as the basis for the Hwasong-15 first stage.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Hwasong-13/HS-13_2015.jpg -
#407 by Kryten on 01 Dec, 2017 05:14
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China successfully developed an ICBM, H-bomb and an RV in the middle of the cultural revolution, conditions much worse than in the DPRK at any point within the last two decades or so. It's now pretty clear they didn't have any kind of bluffing in their program, and the systems developed during this time are still considered credible deterrents today. Especially given what has been done in the past year, the idea that the DPRK are bluffing about the capabilities that are harder to show is shifting into 'wishful thinking' territory.
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#408 by Danderman on 01 Dec, 2017 06:06
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China successfully developed an ICBM, H-bomb and an RV in the middle of the cultural revolution, conditions much worse than in the DPRK at any point within the last two decades or so. It's now pretty clear they didn't have any kind of bluffing in their program, and the systems developed during this time are still considered credible deterrents today. Especially given what has been done in the past year, the idea that the DPRK are bluffing about the capabilities that are harder to show is shifting into 'wishful thinking' territory.
Actually, the introduction of HS-15 tells us that HS-14 likely was an experimental system intended to demonstrate technology, rather than an actual weapon. HS-14 was simply too small and underpowered to serve as an ICBM. So, yeah, although NK may have claimed it was an ICBM, they were bluffing. -
#409 by Kryten on 01 Dec, 2017 06:11
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It could probably work as one with a primary-only warhead. Not ideal, but fine as an interim solution.
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#410 by Chasm on 01 Dec, 2017 09:17
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How heavy is the North Korean nuclear warhead device?
There are a lot of guesses about NK warheads. First and foremost if what we see is a representation of the real thing, and of course if there is a real warhead in the first place. Which is wishful thinking at the very best.
The Jeffrey Lewis has the disco ball at 60cm and "a few hundred kg + reentry vehicle", others at 90cm and up to 900kg+ RV.
The much mentioned 4th Chinese test in 1966 ~90cm 500-1200kg ~10kt.
The 1953 US Mark 7 / W7 had a 60cm 500kg core, 8-61kt. (Listed as unboosted, yet with dial a yield? Interesting(tm).)
The Mr.Peanut estimates also vary widely.
Going for the US arsenal again, say it is more or less a 1958 Mark 28/W28. 20x60 inches 700-800kg (800-1050kg for the free fall variants). The Y2 option was 350kt, primary only Y3 70kt, Y1 1.1Mt Y5 1.45Mt.
I selected this one because it is old, compact enough and even comes with a low yield option.
Lets take a look at it from the other direction, how much weight budget is there?.
At first sight and in absence of better estimates HS-15 is roughly UR-100UTTKh [SS-11 Mod 2] sized, perhaps 10% longer. Very different propulsion though.
The UR-100UTTKh is listed as 2m diameter, 19m length overall, 12000-13000km range with a 900-1200kg warhead, 50t lift off weight. Single 1Mt warhead ~1km CEP. First test in 1969, deployed in 1972. Later also as 3x350kt mirv with 10600km range.
How efficient is NK propulsion? Looks like the RD-0216 had even more ISP than the now infamous RD-250.
Lets play it safe and reduce ISP by 20% down to gas generator level. Simply say that throw weight changes the same. Still 720kg. Certainly enough for the disco ball, and with just a little bit performance or fuel enough for a W28ish Peanut.
And it looks like the HS-15is slightly larger than that. Norbert Brügge has it at 2.4x22.4m in his initial analysis. -
#411 by Skyrocket on 01 Dec, 2017 14:39
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Actually, the introduction of HS-15 tells us that HS-14 likely was an experimental system intended to demonstrate technology, rather than an actual weapon. HS-14 was simply too small and underpowered to serve as an ICBM. So, yeah, although NK may have claimed it was an ICBM, they were bluffing.
The reality is different, I'm sure, but I wonder what HS-15/HS-14 means for ABM now.
- Ed Kyle
I guess, this means some priority to get the east coast GBI site ready. Did they select a site already? IIRC, Fort Drum (NY); Camp Ravenna (OH) and Fort Custer (MI) were the finalists. -
#412 by Danderman on 01 Dec, 2017 19:14
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It would be amazing if NK put two different large missile systems into serial production.
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#413 by hop on 01 Dec, 2017 20:49
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The US ABM system was, as I remember it, designed for a theoretical minimal ICBM force only able to hit California. At least that's how the design was described in the general media. The reality is different, I'm sure, but I wonder what HS-15/HS-14 means for ABM now.
No, the Ft. Greely Alaska site covers pretty much all the CONUS against Korea, though with the significant downside that interceptors launch toward Russia or China for many targets. See slide 8 on this post to get an idea of the geometry https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1204122/nuclear-deterrence-the-revenge-of-geography/
Unless DPRK goes for something like FOBS.
It also occurs to me that HS-14 are probably suitable for targeting Ft. Greely itself... -
#414 by VernierLover on 01 Dec, 2017 22:16
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RD-250 is part of RD-215 family and no, the former has higher performance than later.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/R-16_missile_engine_derivative/
Jane's Intelligence Group estimates the mock up of Teller-Ulam/Hydrogen/Thermonuclear bomb that Kim Jong Un was inspecting/observing is 255 to 360 kilograms heavy.
http://www.janes.com/images/assets/111/75111/North_Korea_bargains_with_nuclear_diplomacy.pdf
Detonation on September 3rd could be over 300 kilotons...
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1203852/sar-image-of-punggye-ri/
Those who claim 90 centimeter diameter for disco ball are insane, Kim Jong Un would have to be over 2.5 meters tall and Kim Jong Un is 1.70 meters tall according to US while SK has it at 1.75 meters. Disco ball with every other needed component to work and survive re-entry is few hundred kilograms which could mean 2 or more.
Reading Elleman's article as he jumped to conclussion about Hwasong-15 before footage was released and then next article is hilarious after release, anyway he estimates 1000 kilogram payload thus 3 or 4 disco balls of death as MIRV is not out of the question at all.
http://www.38north.org/2017/11/melleman113017/?platform=hootsuite
In case you didn't know the name of that engine is Paektusan.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Unha-X/Description/Frame.htm
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Unha-X/Gallery/Engine.htm
Hwasong-15 has no verniers and each chamber/thruster/engine is gimballed/steerable separately despite single turbopump which I've read is that Russia achieved that relatively recently since RD-180 is post-Cold War development of RD-170 which steered in unison.
Anyway initial assesment of length was 22 meters which increased in end to 22.5 meters, isn't Hwasong-15 largest road mobile ICBM in the world? Also diameter of it is identical to R-14 and Unha-3.
This thing is R-36/SS-18 Satan's bastard son, just look at it and the engine, if its launched three times in a row then North Korea has very reliable production of this engine that it can be sure it won't blow up if they ever decide to have a silo and make own Satan.
Hail Satan the ender of the world. /s
Now the question should be are they developing variant with 4 chambers, it would fit inside 2.4 meter diameter. -
#415 by russianhalo117 on 02 Dec, 2017 00:41
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RD-250 is part of RD-215 family and no, the former has higher performance than later.
This regarding RD-250 in North Korea has been disproven several times now.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/R-16_missile_engine_derivative/
Jane's Intelligence Group estimates the mock up of Teller-Ulam/Hydrogen/Thermonuclear bomb that Kim Jong Un was inspecting/observing is 255 to 360 kilograms heavy.
http://www.janes.com/images/assets/111/75111/North_Korea_bargains_with_nuclear_diplomacy.pdf
Detonation on September 3rd could be over 300 kilotons...
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1203852/sar-image-of-punggye-ri/
Those who claim 90 centimeter diameter for disco ball are insane, Kim Jong Un would have to be over 2.5 meters tall and Kim Jong Un is 1.70 meters tall according to US while SK has it at 1.75 meters. Disco ball with every other needed component to work and survive re-entry is few hundred kilograms which could mean 2 or more.
Reading Elleman's article as he jumped to conclussion about Hwasong-15 before footage was released and then next article is hilarious after release, anyway he estimates 1000 kilogram payload thus 3 or 4 disco balls of death as MIRV is not out of the question at all.
http://www.38north.org/2017/11/melleman113017/?platform=hootsuite
In case you didn't know the name of that engine is Paektusan.
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Unha-X/Description/Frame.htm
http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Unha-X/Gallery/Engine.htm
Hwasong-15 has no verniers and each chamber/thruster/engine is gimballed/steerable separately despite single turbopump which I've read is that Russia achieved that relatively recently since RD-180 is post-Cold War development of RD-170 which steered in unison.
Anyway initial assesment of length was 22 meters which increased in end to 22.5 meters, isn't Hwasong-15 largest road mobile ICBM in the world? Also diameter of it is identical to R-14 and Unha-3.
This thing is R-36/SS-18 Satan's bastard son, just look at it and the engine, if its launched three times in a row then North Korea has very reliable production of this engine that it can be sure it won't blow up if they ever decide to have a silo and make own Satan.
Hail Satan the ender of the world. /s
Now the question should be are they developing variant with 4 chambers, it would fit inside 2.4 meter diameter. -
#416 by Targeteer on 02 Dec, 2017 00:55
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Here's the KCNA release. Says the nine axle T/E is 100% North Korean. Photo clearly showing the two engines of the first stage. Looks like a Titan II class missile. Attached is a zip file of all the photos.
That photo seems to show the rear footings for the launcher being on the edge of a concrete pad and the erect missile resting over a depression/hole next to that edge. That kind of prepared site might be identifiable...
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#417 by VernierLover on 02 Dec, 2017 01:29
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This regarding RD-250 in North Korea has been disproven several times now.
It looks really really like it, what... They reverse engineered it just by looking at pictures of it? -
#418 by Danderman on 02 Dec, 2017 04:25
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Some engineering by analogy:
Let's assume that the first stage engines of Hwasong-15 are some sort of RD-250 derivative. i doubt that it has similar performance of RD-250, given that it is reverse engineered, but let's assume it's in the ballpark.
We know that a launch vehicle based on 2 pairs of RD-250 engines (Cosmos 3) can orbit 1000 kg to a low orbit, which is close to the same capability as launching sub-orbital but extremely long range. So, a double RD-250 system with a decent upper stage can do 1000 kg.
On the other hand, Hwasong-15 seems to have the low performance 4 vernier engine upper stage that uses R-27 verniers, which are not very efficient.Compared to the Cosmos 3 upper stage, Hwasong-15 loses a lot of performance.
So, compared with Cosmos-3, Hwasong-15 is a poor performer, which means it's not going to have 1,000 kg capability over a long distance.
I should note that the doggy upper stage is really suited for sending very small payloads long distances. This leads me to believe that Hwasong-15 as we see it is not the final iteration, that Some Day, the current upper stage will be replaced by a real one.
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#419 by hop on 02 Dec, 2017 05:38
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On the other hand, Hwasong-15 seems to have the low performance 4 vernier engine upper stage that uses R-27 verniers, which are not very efficient.
Source? I haven't seen much of anything about the HS-15 upper stage, except that it is very obviously larger than the seemingly undersized one on the HS-14
