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#180
by
Star One
on 28 Jul, 2017 20:08
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Early Observations of North Korea’s Latest Missile TestsOn July 28, North Korea launched a ballistic missile that reportedly flew for 45 minutes, reaching a peak altitude of 3,000 km, and a slightly longer range than the previous test. While the type of missile tested is yet unconfirmed, these data, if accurate, are fully consistent with a Hwasong-14 tested with a larger second stage that is powered by a high-thrust engine. If flown on a flatter trajectory, this missile could reach as far as 9,000 to 10,000 km. More information, including videos and photographs, will help identify the new second stage engine, and pinpoint its performance capacity.
However, if the above assessment is correct, North Korea seems to have made a logical step forward, as it tries to perfect the technologies to build and field an operationally-viable ICBM that can threaten the mainland United States. More tests are needed to assess and validate the reliability of the Hwasong-14, so North Korea is sure to follow this launch with many more.
http://www.38north.org/2017/07/melleman072817/
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#181
by
Targeteer
on 28 Jul, 2017 20:08
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For clarity, the launch location is from this official DOD release.
The U.S. Department of Defense detected and tracked a single North Korea missile launch today at about 10:41 a.m. EDT. We assess that this missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile, as had been expected.
The missile was launched from Mupyong-ni and traveled about 1000 km before splashing down in the Sea of Japan. We are working with our interagency partners on a more detailed assessment.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America.
Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of these threats, remains ironclad. We remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies from any attack or provocation
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#182
by
Zed_Noir
on 28 Jul, 2017 23:19
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Watch CNN news bulletin on this launch. CNN reported that the missile launch from a different location (reportedly Mupyong-ni near Wosan) from the previous launch. Does that mean this missile system is capable of remote setup for launch? Or are there multi launch sites?
Could be their mobile launcher platform...
Well. Obviously the missile is move around with a wheeled transporter/erector.
To refined the query. Does the DPRK have in place the infra-structure to set up a launch with their ICBM at remote un-improved locations?
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#183
by
Rocket Science
on 28 Jul, 2017 23:34
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Watch CNN news bulletin on this launch. CNN reported that the missile launch from a different location (reportedly Mupyong-ni near Wosan) from the previous launch. Does that mean this missile system is capable of remote setup for launch? Or are there multi launch sites?
Could be their mobile launcher platform...
Well. Obviously the missile is move around with a wheeled transporter/erector.
To refined the query. Does the DPRK have in place the infra-structure to set up a launch with their ICBM at remote un-improved locations?
I'm talking about on of these self contained launchers... Obviously...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-truck-idUSKBN19P1J3
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#184
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 01:20
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Early Observations of North Korea’s Latest Missile Tests
On July 28, North Korea launched a ballistic missile that reportedly flew for 45 minutes, reaching a peak altitude of 3,000 km, and a slightly longer range than the previous test. While the type of missile tested is yet unconfirmed, these data, if accurate, are fully consistent with a Hwasong-14 tested with a larger second stage that is powered by a high-thrust engine. If flown on a flatter trajectory, this missile could reach as far as 9,000 to 10,000 km. More information, including videos and photographs, will help identify the new second stage engine, and pinpoint its performance capacity.
However, if the above assessment is correct, North Korea seems to have made a logical step forward, as it tries to perfect the technologies to build and field an operationally-viable ICBM that can threaten the mainland United States. More tests are needed to assess and validate the reliability of the Hwasong-14, so North Korea is sure to follow this launch with many more.
The obvious approach would be to upgrade the upper stage to four engines, as was done in Iran.
http://www.38north.org/2017/07/melleman072817/
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#185
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 01:25
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#186
by
hop
on 29 Jul, 2017 01:26
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#187
by
Zed_Noir
on 29 Jul, 2017 02:07
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Watch CNN news bulletin on this launch. CNN reported that the missile launch from a different location (reportedly Mupyong-ni near Wosan) from the previous launch. Does that mean this missile system is capable of remote setup for launch? Or are there multi launch sites?
Could be their mobile launcher platform...
Well. Obviously the missile is move around with a wheeled transporter/erector.
To refined the query. Does the DPRK have in place the infra-structure to set up a launch with their ICBM at remote un-improved locations?
I'm talking about on of these self contained launchers... Obviously...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-truck-idUSKBN19P1J3
AFAIK this particular ICBM is hypergolic fueled. So it is unlikely this ICBM will be full of propellants when the North Koreans move it around from site to site IMO.
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#188
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 04:10
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I'm no image analyst, I look at what others figured out and then try to find out if it's plausible or not.
Both the armscontrolwonks and Norbert Brügge arrived at similar conclusions in their analysis.
A diameter of 1.8-1.9m for the HS-14. That is HS-13 tooling, not HS-10 (RS-27 1.5m).
45 and 47 tons takeoff thrust. The bigger diameter has more thrust, no problems there.
Where is the evidence that the HS-14 is smaller than that? Both for physical size and thrust please.
I provided photos showing both HS10 and HS12 carried in the same model TEL. The only difference in size between the two missiles seems to be length, not diameter. I ascribe some of the additional length and mass to HS12 from the two additional verniers in the first stage, although it is possible that the R-27 derived first stage engine may have been tweaked a bit, as well.
Remember that tooling is expensive, so lengthening a stage is easy, making it wider, not so much. For those who don't know this, check out something called "Falcon 9".
What we have now is: Scud derived vehicles, 1.5 meter diameter, R-27 derived vehicles, 1.9 meter diameter, and Unha, 4 Scud engines in the first stage, 2.4 meter diameter. Clearly, if HS12 were 80 ton class, it would be wider, like Unha, which is 80 ton class.
BTW, HS13 is the small narrow upper stage carried by the HS12 first stage to comprise HS14.
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#189
by
hop
on 29 Jul, 2017 04:50
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Video of the latest test. Seem to be very much the same as the previous HS14 launch, although the KCNA release kind of implies changes. US / allied sources all seem to have settled on an apogee around ~3,700 km and a flight time around ~45 minutes, consistent with KCNA claimed numbers.
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#190
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 05:33
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You can call me crazy, but the first stage of this launcher seems significantly shorter than HS12, assuming use of the same TEL. HS12's interstage/interface with the payload is almost over the driver's head, whereas this video shows the interstage farther back. Perhaps HS12 is shortened to accomodate the upper stage mass.
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#191
by
hop
on 29 Jul, 2017 05:51
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#192
by
Websorber
on 29 Jul, 2017 09:52
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2th Hwasong 14 launch
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#193
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 10:05
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You are certainly right about the 2 different TELs. I have seen HS10 on the 6 axle TEL, as well as HS12.
I have noticed some sources claim that Hwasong 13 is a separate missile, not the HS14 upper stage.
There are claims that HS14 uses a RD-216 derived engine, which is bollocks.
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#194
by
Kryten
on 29 Jul, 2017 10:12
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I have noticed some sources claim that Hwasong 13 is a separate missile, not the HS14 upper stage.
The ICBM model seen in the 2015 parade had 'HS-13' on a plate on the TEL. Given they seem to have abandoned that design now, whether they'll reuse the designation is anybody's guess.
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#195
by
Rocket Science
on 29 Jul, 2017 12:20
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Watch CNN news bulletin on this launch. CNN reported that the missile launch from a different location (reportedly Mupyong-ni near Wosan) from the previous launch. Does that mean this missile system is capable of remote setup for launch? Or are there multi launch sites?
Could be their mobile launcher platform...
Well. Obviously the missile is move around with a wheeled transporter/erector.
To refined the query. Does the DPRK have in place the infra-structure to set up a launch with their ICBM at remote un-improved locations?
I'm talking about on of these self contained launchers... Obviously...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-truck-idUSKBN19P1J3
AFAIK this particular ICBM is hypergolic fueled. So it is unlikely this ICBM will be full of propellants when the North Koreans move it around from site to site IMO.
So you figure that they could not add a fuel truck to the convoy if they needed to?
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#196
by
K210
on 29 Jul, 2017 12:59
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Looks like my speculation a couple of weeks ago about the second stage of HS-14 was correct. Looking at the pictures and video released by north Korea the upper stage seems to be stretched which would indicate a longer burn time hence greater range. They could in theory mount a small third stage and push the range even further to 12,000 km+.
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#197
by
Chasm
on 29 Jul, 2017 13:17
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Both the armscontrolwonks and 38 North are slow with a comprehensive comparison of all the missiles after the concert. Much easier to do comparisons between missiles with data from the same analyst. Norbert Brügge did a lot of revisions since the image dump, here is some of what he thinks:
The HS-12 first (and only stage) has the same overall length as the HS-14 first stage.
The HS-12 first stage are ~1.5m diameter with common bulkhead, HS-14 first stage is ~1.70m diameter and no common bulkhead.
HS-10 is also ~1.5m diameter with common bulkhead but much shorter in length and with a submerged engine.
HS-14 second stage is of similar dimensions as the HS-13 3rd stage. HS-13 2013 parade version that is.
HS-13 first stage is larger in diameter ~1.9m.
Same engine on HS-12 and HS-14, different from the submerged engine on HS-10. Verniers may be the same.
Very little information about the HS-13 engine(s). From images the first stage has 2 main combustors and 2 verniers.
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Seems to me like NK moved away from R-27 inspired submerged engines and redid their designs with their new engine. A slightly longer missile is not too much of a hassle on land. (Btw: that seems to be a major reason for different HS-12 and HS-14 missile length between analysts. Some add the overhanging nozzles to the length, some don't...)
Their submarine launched missiles moved to solid fuel instead.
Norbert still thinks that the new engine is NKs take on the RD-250 but there is quite a bit of opposition to that in this thread.
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#198
by
Star One
on 29 Jul, 2017 14:29
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#199
by
Danderman
on 29 Jul, 2017 18:13
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Looks like my speculation a couple of weeks ago about the second stage of HS-14 was correct. Looking at the pictures and video released by north Korea the upper stage seems to be stretched which would indicate a longer burn time hence greater range. They could in theory mount a small third stage and push the range even further to 12,000 km+.
I can't see the upper stage on the latest launch as being appreciably larger than the one used for the July 4 test.
In all cases, the upper stage is far too small to carry a significant payload, it is designed to fly a minimum payload a long distance.
