Vector Launch (formerly Vector Space Systems)

[gosnold]

$5m vs $1.5m may be part of the reason.

$5m is high enough cost that RL is potentially able to be beat by SpaceX or Blue Origin in a dedicated, fully reusable launch.

$1.5m is far lower, probably too low for either SpaceX or Blue Origin to do a dedicated launch even if fully reusable (unless Blue makes New Shepard into a smallsat launcher).

$1.5m is almost low enough to find entirely with SBIR paper-study money.

$1.5M for 28kg to 500km SSO. That's a really small satellite. Any company with something that small isn't likely to have money to tie up booking a rocket that will launch in 3-4 years.

That makes 53k$/kg for Vector and 33k$/kg for Rocket Labs, so RL is cheaper if cheaper if you launch more than 84kg in the same plane. That's about 15 3U cubesats (using Doves as a reference point). So for constellations of cubesats with many satellites per plane, RL is better. For constellations with a handful of cubesats per plane, Vector would have the advantage. Vector could also make the plane operational earlier, by using a different phasing for each launch, to make it quicker for each sat to reach its spot in the plane.

However, Vector cannot launch smallsats, whereas RL can. Since smallsat around 100kg are very interesting for Earth Observation for instance, that's giving up a big part of the market.

[Robotbeat]

So RL has to rely on the same sort of arguments that medium rockets use. It's gotta hope there are limits to Moore's Law's miniaturization of satellites.

If you take RL's arguments seriously, Vector sounds even better (on paper).

RL makes sense only if you take the argument /partway/ and trust that they found some sweetspot such that you can't profitably make satellites any smaller AND that you won't be able to cluster even more to give you access to much cheaper-per-kg medium launchers. Oh, and that full rapid reuse (on any size launcher really) also won't work.

I wouldn't invest in either RL or Vector. But are we going to take the microlaunch thesis seriously or not?

[Dao Angkan]

SSTL's low cost Earth Observation demonstrator "Carbonite" was only 80kg with the goal to reduce that to 50kg. Earth-i plans to launch a pathfinder later this year, but the actual constellation will launch in batches of five per plane.

So Earth Observation satellites are getting smaller, but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

[Robotbeat]

... but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

If you're going to make that kind of argument, then launch on a Soyuz or RTLS Falcon 9 at a great discount per kg.

[Dao Angkan]

... but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

If you're going to make that kind of argument, then launch on a Soyuz or RTLS Falcon 9 at a great discount per kg.

In the case of Earth-i, they want to launch to specific planes, 5 sats @ 50kg each per plane. Maybe they can rideshare, but a dedicated small sat launcher would be useful.

[ringsider]

The problem is that Vector is at best 3rd to the party behind RL and VO. I'll be amazed if they are in commercial service within 2 years, they are probably 3-4 years out if things go well. That's a big gap to make up and doesn't even count potential foreign competitors.

I think the foreign competition is a major issue too. They are third to the party in the USA. If there was a European launcher, or a Chinese one, where would local payloads naturally migrate? There are already a couple of contracts signed for Landspace for example, and at least 2-3 European launcher projects bubbling away. China is not so bad because geopolitics, but a Euro launcher in this class would be a serious issue for a 3rd/4th placed US-based launcher.

[Robotbeat]

... but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

If you're going to make that kind of argument, then launch on a Soyuz or RTLS Falcon 9 at a great discount per kg.

In the case of Earth-i, they want to launch to specific planes, 5 sats @ 50kg each per plane. Maybe they can rideshare, but a dedicated small sat launcher would be useful.

They can also let orbital precession take care of distributing them to different planes.

[Robotbeat]

I think the 1-2 ton market, if they can get to the $15m range, will be more useful.

[savuporo]

This is all great and i hope Thiel's and Noseks of the world stop by for some great investment advice ( they have put tens of millions into a company with no orbital flights and a 165kg payload capacity rocket before, after all ), but people wading into this thread will not find much about Vector Space Systems specifically over the last couple of pages.

Maybe the nanosat launch market deserves its own thread.

[savuporo]

Now for some on topic stuff, Cantrell was on tmro.tv last weekend


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC24tQ0e_u4?t=1415

EDIT:
They also posted a nice team timeline recently, going back to '96

https://vectorspacesystems.com/timeline/

[Dao Angkan]

... but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

If you're going to make that kind of argument, then launch on a Soyuz or RTLS Falcon 9 at a great discount per kg.

In the case of Earth-i, they want to launch to specific planes, 5 sats @ 50kg each per plane. Maybe they can rideshare, but a dedicated small sat launcher would be useful.

They can also let orbital precession take care of distributing them to different planes.

Could you elaborate on that? If they all launch to the same orbit wouldn't they precess in the same way? I thought that plane changes were expensive in terms of delta v, something that will be very limited on a 50kg craft.

Incidentally, this is academic with regards to Earth-i, as they only want to launch the first plane and then see what the level of demand is before launching more batches to other planes.

And sorry for off topic, but I think that the debate about miniaturisation of Earth observation satellites, and could they be brought within the capabilities of Vector within the next few years to be of relevance with regards to questions of potential demand for a Vector class launcher.

[envy887]

... but it's likely that much of the market will be constellations of multiple birds per launch.

If you're going to make that kind of argument, then launch on a Soyuz or RTLS Falcon 9 at a great discount per kg.

In the case of Earth-i, they want to launch to specific planes, 5 sats @ 50kg each per plane. Maybe they can rideshare, but a dedicated small sat launcher would be useful.

They can also let orbital precession take care of distributing them to different planes.

Could you elaborate on that? If they all launch to the same orbit wouldn't they precess in the same way? I thought that plane changes were expensive in terms of delta v, something that will be very limited on a 50kg craft.

Incidentally, this is academic with regards to Earth-i, as they only want to launch the first plane and then see what the level of demand is before launching more batches to other planes.

Orbital precession is altitude dependent, so if you have time the cost of changing right ascension is merely change altitude, precessing faster or slower for a while, then correcting altitude. This is how Iridium move birds from plane to plane.

Changing inclination is much more difficult, but most constellations use multiple planes at any given inclination. So the constellation-launching advantage of a small-sat launcher is diminished relative to a larger launcher which can fill multiple planes in one launch more cheaply.

[Dao Angkan]

Thanks for your explanation ... plane Vs inclination. So if a big competitor came in, and launched 100+ 50kg sats on one Falcon/Soyuz, they could cover the globe in one launch. I understand Robotbeat's concern about small sat launchers now .... the big boys can just come in and pull the rug from under your feet at any time.

[TrevorMonty]

Thanks for your explanation ... plane Vs inclination. So if a big competitor came in, and launched 100+ 50kg sats on one Falcon/Soyuz, they could cover the globe in one launch. I understand Robotbeat's concern about small sat launchers now .... the big boys can just come in and pull the rug from under your feet at any time.

Most of smallsat cubesat companies can't afford a F9 and fill it,  even if they could it would place all they eggs in one basket. With Vector or RL they can launch a few satellites and start earning revenue sooner.

As for ridesharing, Spaceflights F9 is 2yrs overdue, enough time to bankrupt most startups.

[Lar]

Although it's been a few days, and major surgery is a lot of work, there was way too much personal stuff in the last page or so... calling people ignorant isn't helpful. Nor is biting back, even if the post is worth biting back about... I edited a post or two and then gave it up as a bad job.

Play the ball, not the man, and keep the excellence quotient up, please... And if that doesn't work, don't start a brawl, call the refs. (press the report to mod link)

[Dao Angkan]

Thanks for your explanation ... plane Vs inclination. So if a big competitor came in, and launched 100+ 50kg sats on one Falcon/Soyuz, they could cover the globe in one launch. I understand Robotbeat's concern about small sat launchers now .... the big boys can just come in and pull the rug from under your feet at any time.

Most of smallsat cubesat companies can't afford a F9 and fill it,  even if they could it would place all they eggs in one basket. With Vector or RL they can launch a few satellites and start earning revenue sooner.

As for ridesharing, Spaceflights F9 is 2yrs overdue, enough time to bankrupt most startups.

I should have specified with regards to Earth observation constellations ... I see this as the next big thing with regards to space, which cheaper/smaller satellites and cheaper launchers will enable. Live HD video coverage of any point on Earth at anytime .... SSTL sats 1m resolution, bigger players? Possibly higher res, that capability would seem to open up whole new potential industries.

Could Vector take a piece of that pie? Maybe if the sats got small enough, they could replace a failure, but for initial launch? RL or VO would seem like potential options (India's PSLV might be more likely if the usual new vehicle issues happen). For a big player launching a whole constellation in one hit? I guess they have to wait for the smaller players to prove the market before they invest that much.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Alex Rodriguez Named Vice President of Government and External Affairs At Vector
July 10, 2017 By Shaun Coleman

Sharing some exciting news today that Alex Rodriguez has joined Vector as our new Vice President of Government and External Affairs. Alex will be leading all facets of external relations including with our Government partners during a time of accelerated company growth. He joins Vector from the Arizona Technology Council where he served as Vice President and led the Arizona Aerospace, Aviation and Defense CEO Network.

As Vice President of Government and External Affairs, Alex brings over two decades of experience in business development, government affairs, and strategic planning to Vector. Alex has held leadership roles in three Fortune 500 companies including Raytheon, where he led a half billion dollars spend portfolio in supply chain management. A former Term Member of the New York based Council on Foreign Relations, Alex served as a U.S. Department of Defense International Policy Advisor, Country Director and Special Assistant at the Pentagon, entering federal service by appointment as a Presidential Management Fellow. Alex served as a Captain in the U.S. Army for a tour-of-duty in support of Operation Joint Forge, the U.S. Peacekeeping Mission in Bosnia & Herzegovina. He holds a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.

As a seasoned leader in many diverse capacities, Alex’s unique expertise makes him a perfect fit for Vector and we are thrilled to have him onboard. Thank you for joining us in welcoming Alex to the Vector team!

https://vectorspacesystems.com/alex-rodriguez-named-vice-president-government-external-affairs-vector/

[Jim Davis]

Alex Rodriguez Named Vice President of Government and External Affairs At Vector

I didn't know A-rod was a space enthusiast.

Sorry, couldn't resist. It won't happen again.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Stay tuned...

https://twitter.com/vectorspacesys/status/885578459799461888

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Success! Video to follow...

https://twitter.com/vectorspacesys/status/885587563129458688

Successful test of @vectorspacesys 1st stage engine made in #Tucson manufacturing facility w/ new AL #3Dprinting injector & spark igniter

https://twitter.com/jamesncantrell/status/885593016332832768