Poll

For a successfully launched JSAT-14 mission, the first stage will:

Fail to return from orbit (break up on re-entry) or completely miss the ASDS (ditch)
1 (0.7%)
Strike the ASDS with 'Kaboomy Goodness'
37 (24.8%)
land successfully on ASDS and return to port intact
105 (70.5%)
land successfully on ASDS, but topple over after or during transit
6 (4%)

Total Members Voted: 149

Voting closed: 05/02/2016 02:58 PM


Author Topic: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll  (Read 6024 times)

Offline CraigLieb

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OK once more into the breach folks..
This is one of those dicey landing scenarios with higher separation speeds and lower probability of success. Plus we don't know if this is a suicide 3-engine burn or the now successful 1-engine burn type attempt.
Finally, the ASDS will be at a greater distance from port, so more ocean to cover for the return..
What-cha-think?
Colonize Mars!

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #1 on: 04/25/2016 03:33 PM »
Craig, I'd suggest adding vote options for whether it will be a 1-engine or 3-engine landing burn, since there are advantages both ways. On one hand, SpaceX may want to perfect the 3-engine burn for future GTO missions. OTOH, they may opt for better odds of recovery and not punching another hole in OCISLY.  ;)
« Last Edit: 04/25/2016 03:34 PM by Kabloona »

Offline Doesitfloat

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #2 on: 04/25/2016 03:38 PM »
My Bold a$$ prediction is:
a) Tiny boost back/targeting burn
b) Slightly longer Reentry/braking burn than SES9. Still coming in hot - Red hot instead of White hot
c) Combined landing burn- Start with 3 engine then switch to single when legs deploy.
d) Land inside the inner circle 

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #3 on: 04/25/2016 03:57 PM »
Craig, I'd suggest adding vote options for whether it will be a 1-engine or 3-engine landing burn, since there are advantages both ways. On one hand, SpaceX may want to perfect the 3-engine burn for future GTO missions. OTOH, they may opt for better odds of recovery and not punching another hole in OCISLY.  ;)
sounds like a different poll

If I add it to this one, we get too many choices...
Land on ASDS after 1 engine burn with 'Kaboomy goodness' (including topple over at landing)
Land on ASDS after 3 engine burn with 'Kaboomy goodness' (including topple over at landing)
Land on ASDS after 1 engine burn successfully and be brought back to port
Land on ASDS after 3 engine burn successfully and be brought back to port
Land on ASDS successfully after 1 engine burn, but topple over before returning to port
Land on ASDS successfully after 3 engine burn, but topple over before returning to port

see what I mean?
Colonize Mars!

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #4 on: 04/25/2016 04:12 PM »
Catch the third wire ;)
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It's your med's!

Offline starhawk92

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #5 on: 04/25/2016 04:59 PM »
Craig, I'd suggest adding vote options for whether it will be a 1-engine or 3-engine landing burn, since there are advantages both ways. On one hand, SpaceX may want to perfect the 3-engine burn for future GTO missions. OTOH, they may opt for better odds of recovery and not punching another hole in OCISLY.  ;)

I say add "Heisenbergs to ASDS just after separation, no loss of fuel or vehicle" because hey, it's a non-zero chance in THIS universe!!

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #6 on: 04/25/2016 05:16 PM »
Craig, I'd suggest adding vote options for whether it will be a 1-engine or 3-engine landing burn, since there are advantages both ways. On one hand, SpaceX may want to perfect the 3-engine burn for future GTO missions. OTOH, they may opt for better odds of recovery and not punching another hole in OCISLY.  ;)
sounds like a different poll

If I add it to this one, we get too many choices...
Land on ASDS after 1 engine burn with 'Kaboomy goodness' (including topple over at landing)
Land on ASDS after 3 engine burn with 'Kaboomy goodness' (including topple over at landing)
Land on ASDS after 1 engine burn successfully and be brought back to port
Land on ASDS after 3 engine burn successfully and be brought back to port
Land on ASDS successfully after 1 engine burn, but topple over before returning to port
Land on ASDS successfully after 3 engine burn, but topple over before returning to port

see what I mean?

I was thinking just adding two more voting options:

( ) 1-engine landing burn
( ) 3- engine landing burn

...oh, but then people would have to vote twice, once on the "success" question and once on the "engine" question...so I see see why that's problematic.

Online hop

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #7 on: 04/25/2016 05:25 PM »
Voted full success but very low confidence between that and kaboomy goodness.

There is also some chance they won't make an attempt, e.g. if weather or sea state is bad.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #8 on: 04/25/2016 08:48 PM »
Voted Kaboom. I'm basically split 50:50 between success and failure, but this isn't terribly high-margin, and lots of things can still go wrong, as in the past.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline redliox

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #9 on: 04/25/2016 08:59 PM »
Either way, Don't Panic  8)
"Let the trails lead where they may, I will follow."
-Tigatron

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #10 on: 04/25/2016 09:06 PM »
Apart from the time when Arthur Dent hurt his arm, he had no major issues with landings. Are we not really talking about two other creatures engaged in a terminal descent, viz: (a) a large, slightly confused sperm whale and (b) a bowl of petunias?

'Oh, look, what's that big round thing, approaching really quite fast, and look, there's a nice, square shape right in the middle of it, all square and... ...wait a minute, there's a round thing, right in the middle of the square thing... ...I wonder if it's going to be friendly?'

S P L A T ! ! !

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #11 on: 04/26/2016 01:48 AM »
Apart from the time when Arthur Dent hurt his arm, he had no major issues with landings. Are we not really talking about two other creatures engaged in a terminal descent, viz: (a) a large, slightly confused sperm whale and (b) a bowl of petunias?

'Oh, look, what's that big round thing, approaching really quite fast, and look, there's a nice, square shape right in the middle of it, all square and... ...wait a minute, there's a round thing, right in the middle of the square thing... ...I wonder if it's going to be friendly?'

S P L A T ! ! !

No, Bob -- you need in there somewhere the naming of things.  Like...

"And there's a sort of a square thing there, right in the middle of the big flat thing.  I think I'll call it a bar.. a bar... a barge!"

<Inundation of corrective posts>

"Oh, all right... I think I'll call it a drone ship!"

:D
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #12 on: 04/26/2016 03:28 PM »

I say add "Heisenbergs to ASDS just after separation, no loss of fuel or vehicle" because hey, it's a non-zero chance in THIS universe!!

But then there'd be no deployment of the legs and assumedly some damage. In addition, the retained momentum would give the impression that the stage had just attempted flyback from the barge. :O
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Offline Lar

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #13 on: 04/26/2016 03:30 PM »
This is starting to feel like a party thread, let's not do that.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline HankinNM

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #14 on: 04/26/2016 05:48 PM »
I am hoping (praying!) for a 'nominal' landing, and that the welders can get out there and do their jobs before she topples.
Not an engineer or a mathematician.  Just a rabid space/astronomy freak and Spacex 'groupie'.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #15 on: 04/26/2016 06:33 PM »
This is starting to feel like a party thread, let's not do that.

I see your point, but it was rather named like a party thread, eh?  If you don't want Hitchhiker's Guide references in your posts, I'd suggest resisting the urge to put the name Arthur Dent in your thread title... :D  :D  :D
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Lar

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #16 on: 04/26/2016 06:35 PM »
This is starting to feel like a party thread, let's not do that.

I see your point, but it was rather named like a party thread, eh?  If you don't want Hitchhiker's Guide references in your posts, I'd suggest resisting the urge to put the name Arthur Dent in your thread title... :D  :D  :D

The parties responsible for naming this thread have been sacked. (or will be)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #17 on: 05/01/2016 03:08 PM »

The parties responsible for naming this thread have been sacked. (or will be)

No need. Just invite them to a really good party on the 'B' Drone Ship.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #18 on: 05/01/2016 03:13 PM »
Oh, I forgot. From now on, any damage to drone ships, especially big gougy indentations, must be referred to as 'Arthurs'.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Arthur Dent or soft landing? - Blue Sky landing Poll
« Reply #19 on: 05/01/2016 09:37 PM »
Here is a famous recent Arthur.

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