Poll

For a successfully launched CRS-8 mission targeting the ASDS, I believe the first stage will...

not reach/touch the ASDS ditching in the ocean (intact until sploosh)
1 (0.5%)
strike the ASDS and make kaboomy goodness on impact
7 (3.3%)
land on the ASDS, and be successfully returned to port intact
166 (78.3%)
land on the ASDS, but topple or fail to make it back to port
33 (15.6%)
some other result or outcome (dis-assembly during return or such)
5 (2.4%)

Total Members Voted: 212

Voting closed: 04/03/2016 02:51 PM


Author Topic: CRS8 Landing Poll  (Read 12461 times)

Online ZachS09

Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #20 on: 03/27/2016 06:03 PM »
According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

Don't forget SES-9; it attempted an ASDS landing.
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Online Lar

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #21 on: 03/27/2016 06:42 PM »
I love the way you've quantified "successyness", there... :D
Leave him alone, he's science-ing...
« Last Edit: 03/27/2016 06:43 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline OxCartMark

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #22 on: 03/27/2016 11:25 PM »
According to the analysis I just performed they should be able to land it successfully 1.3 times on this attempt.

Don't forget SES-9; it attempted an ASDS landing.

Not counting that or DSCOVR because they were not fair attempts;
  - DSCOVR: ASDS was damaged and blown off course and wasn't there to receive F9 (which landed well on target)
  - SES-9: Wasn't expected to even get there because of super hot entry, suicide burn, etc.
Just counting fair attempts so that the I don't have do invoke the 'degree of difficulty' multiplier in the successiness formula.  I imagine if I'd run the SES-9 numbers with that very high degree of difficulty it would count as two landings.  And from a momentum standpoint its easy to see even without the formula that SES-9 had at least the momentum of two successful landings.
« Last Edit: 03/27/2016 11:59 PM by OxCartMark »

Online jongoff

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #23 on: 03/28/2016 10:43 PM »
Looks like I'm in the pessimistic minority here - they've been basically perfect at getting the stage to the barge, but haven't beemn able to stick the landing.  I'd love to see them do it - but this stuff is HARD.

Yeah, I hope I'm being overly pessimistic, but not sure if their odds are better than 50/50 of getting the stage back on any given barge landing. Hopefully it'll improve with time, but I don't think it was a coincidence that they're 1/1 for land landings and 0 for something like 4 for barge landings. Fingers crossed, and I'd love to try out some of my new crow recipes if they pull this off.

~Jon

Online Ronsmytheiii

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #24 on: 03/29/2016 01:55 AM »
I just think that SpaceX really wants to demonstrate a successful ASDS landing. 

The end goal is to demonstrate successful and economic reuse of a stage. SpaceX needs/wants to do that first, so if RTLS gets them a returned core, that advances the goal better. Use ASDS how you would " operationally"  for high energy missions, don't stack the deck.
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #25 on: 04/05/2016 08:24 PM »
Poll voting is closed:
For a SUCCESSFULLY launched, CRS-8 mission targeting the ASDS, First stage action:
     199 out of 212  (93.87%)  believe that it will actually land on the ASDS!
         - a majority (78.3%) thinking it will make it back to port safely
         - and others (15.6%) imagining reasons it will fail to do so like toppling over during transit

Remaining choices (13 votes for a total 6.2%)
      - including my favorite failure, the cherished "Kaboomy goodness" (3.3%)
      - One brave soul (0.5%) thinking it will not reach ASDS and ditch intact in the ocean
      - and 2.4% thinking some other outcome like dis-assembly during return or something else.

Good luck to all and thanks for playing....
« Last Edit: 04/05/2016 08:35 PM by CraigLieb »
Colonize Mars!

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #26 on: 04/08/2016 09:19 PM »
...and we are down to the majority opinion choices... 

    land on the ASDS, and be successfully returned to port intact
    (or)
    land on the ASDS, but topple or fail to make it back to port

now bring it HOME GUYS and GALS!!!
Colonize Mars!

Offline rocx

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #27 on: 04/09/2016 10:19 AM »
I have voted for the 'fail to make it back to port' option, so I might still be proven right. But I was mostly worried about the stage tipping at landing, and even after touchdown I held my heart for five seconds to be sure the thing was not moving anymore. I'm hoping I will be proven wrong tomorrow, and expecting it.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: CRS8 Landing Poll
« Reply #28 on: 04/12/2016 07:23 AM »

Youtube video of Port Canaveral webcam footage. 58mins.



Successfully returned to port intact.   166 (78.3%). Picked the winner!
And a sigh of relief was heard by all.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2016 07:27 AM by CraigLieb »
Colonize Mars!

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