Author Topic: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3  (Read 815423 times)

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #860 on: 05/06/2016 01:58 PM »
Are you comparing with CRS-8 or SES-9?  SES-9 and JCSAT-14 were both quite a bit further out, IIRC.  On the other hand, the seas were much choppier for CRS-8 so they might make better time...

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #861 on: 05/06/2016 02:05 PM »
So when should we expect ASDS in the port? Monday? Tuesday?

It took them almost exactly 4 days transit to reach the LZ. So 4 days minimum, ie Tuesday morning at earliest. But possibly later, since last time they took the return trip much slower than the outbound trip.

They're a good bit farther out in the Atlantic this time correct?

Same distance as for SES-9, but farther out than the "last time" they returned with an intact stage on board, ie CRS-8, when they dilly-dallied on returning to port.

Marine forecast is good through middle of next week, so they should be able to get home without weather delays this time.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2016 02:11 PM by Kabloona »

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #862 on: 05/06/2016 02:17 PM »
I think the time may be coming that this whole section of the forum needs to be renamed to remove 'reusable' from the title because "of course rockets are reusable" ! It's the throw away stages which are rapidly becoming the quaint buggy-whip type story. It will soon be considered an unusual waste.

No, the title can only be changed to recoverable at this time.

Quite right. There are a few people who seem to be treating three very different landings as if the whole thing is a done deal. It still remains to be seen if these rockets can be reliably reused at a cost that is commercially beneficial. There are still a large number of unknowns to be overcome.

Have to agree with Jim on this one.

     Once they've recovered about a dozen, and relaunched a few, THEN we should consider the rename of the forum.  (Personally, I'd wait until some of these first stages have reflown a few times each).
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Offline JasonAW3

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #863 on: 05/06/2016 02:23 PM »
I think they're gonna need a bigger barge when they go landing the BFR at sea...
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #864 on: 05/06/2016 02:52 PM »
I think the time may be coming that this whole section of the forum needs to be renamed to remove 'reusable' from the title because "of course rockets are reusable" ! It's the throw away stages which are rapidly becoming the quaint buggy-whip type story. It will soon be considered an unusual waste.

No, the title can only be changed to recoverable at this time.

Quite right. There are a few people who seem to be treating three very different landings as if the whole thing is a done deal. It still remains to be seen if these rockets can be reliably reused at a cost that is commercially beneficial. There are still a large number of unknowns to be overcome.

In agreement and with enormous respect for Jim and all, I did say ..the time may be coming.... I didn't say it was time yet.
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Offline ahecht

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #865 on: 05/06/2016 02:55 PM »
I assume a FH recovery entirely at sea would require at least two ASDSs since the optimal LZ for the center stage is likely in a different location than for the outer stages. More realistically, a FH mission that involved a barge landing would have the two outer stages returning to LZ-1 and only the center stage landing on OCISLY.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2016 03:12 PM by ahecht »

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #866 on: 05/06/2016 03:47 PM »
I assume a FH recovery entirely at sea would require at least two ASDSs since the optimal LZ for the center stage is likely in a different location than for the outer stages. More realistically, a FH mission that involved a barge landing would have the two outer stages returning to LZ-1 and only the center stage landing on OCISLY.

     I figure the outer stage RTLS landings will depend entirely on performance requirements.  Extra boost needed means more speed and distance.  The "GTO lob" may become fairly common if boosting to higher orbits or larger masses becomes a regular thing.  Don't see a reason why two more barges can't be set up, or rather a pair of more specialized ships, (SWATH Hulled, to reduce st sea chop issues) couldn't be built to handle these landings.
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Offline OxCartMark

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #867 on: 05/06/2016 05:05 PM »
It looks to me as if the ASDS needs to be made smaller.  Maybe we need to keep the outer circle but the deck space beyond that seems just unnecessary.

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #868 on: 05/06/2016 05:13 PM »
We need the size for landing three cores on a single ship. ;)

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #869 on: 05/06/2016 05:21 PM »

Quite right. There are a few people who seem to be treating three very different landings as if the whole thing is a done deal. It still remains to be seen if these rockets can be reliably reused at a cost that is commercially beneficial. There are still a large number of unknowns to be overcome.

Like a bunch of people pointed out, the rocket is designed to be reusable.  The engines have been tested for reusability.  The first couple of recovered rockets have been inspected.

The hardest obstacle was passed, actually on the first try, when they did the first re-entry to a soft-splash in the ocean.

Already then, the writing was on the wall, and it's been getting easier since then - it's just the details take time, bugs ironed out, there was the loss of CRS-(I forget) - and so it's taken a little longer.

But make no mistake. This is a reusable system that's just working its way through the paces.

So sure - you can keep with "It's not been proven yet", but this is about outlook, not about proof.   And this is what the OP said.
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Offline John Alan

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #870 on: 05/06/2016 05:33 PM »
The statistical sample size is too limited still to determine needed ASDS deck size...  :P
2 standing and 1 fell over does not a trend line make...  ???
In my line of work (low volume product testing) the minimum sample size to find standard deviation is considered 10 units for initial work and 30 units to set limits...
Just saying...  ;)

My opinion... so far the deck size meets requirements...  :D
Need 27 more landings to determine if boat is truly too big...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/06/2016 05:40 PM by John Alan »

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #871 on: 05/06/2016 05:57 PM »
I think the time may be coming that this whole section of the forum needs to be renamed to remove 'reusable' from the title because "of course rockets are reusable" ! It's the throw away stages which are rapidly becoming the quaint buggy-whip type story. It will soon be considered an unusual waste.

No, the title can only be changed to recoverable at this time. 
You are absolutely correct that re-use has not yet been demonstrated.  But if I had to bet, I'd guess at least an 80% chance it will be demonstrated soon.  In fact I will bet:

I'm willing to offer 5:1 odds of the launch of a re-used core by SpaceX within a year.  In other words, for a $10 bet, if SpaceX re-launches a core on or before 6 May 2017, you pay me $10.  If no such launch occurs, I'll pay you $50.

Betting on the economic re-use, not just re-use of a core, would be better yet.  It seems impossible to settle, though, since there is no current agreement on current costs, or whether SpaceX is making a profit on their current launches.  So we need to stick to something that can be unambiguously observed.

Any takers?

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #872 on: 05/06/2016 06:04 PM »
I think the time may be coming that this whole section of the forum needs to be renamed to remove 'reusable' from the title because "of course rockets are reusable" ! It's the throw away stages which are rapidly becoming the quaint buggy-whip type story. It will soon be considered an unusual waste.

No, the title can only be changed to recoverable at this time. 
You are absolutely correct that re-use has not yet been demonstrated.  But if I had to bet, I'd guess at least an 80% chance it will be demonstrated soon.  In fact I will bet:

I'm willing to offer 5:1 odds of the launch of a re-used core by SpaceX within a year.  In other words, for a $10 bet, if SpaceX re-launches a core on or before 6 May 2017, you pay me $10.  If no such launch occurs, I'll pay you $50.

Betting on the economic re-use, not just re-use of a core, would be better yet.  It seems impossible to settle, though, since there is no current agreement on current costs, or whether SpaceX is making a profit on their current launches.  So we need to stick to something that can be unambiguously observed.

Any takers?

Not me, I'd be on the same side of the bet as you.

But this begs for a new thread and/or poll,  "When will SpaceX first relaunch a used booster?" and, what will it be carrying? That's a whole 6 month's worth of speculation, polling, and betting.

Offline vanoord

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #873 on: 05/06/2016 06:04 PM »
The statistical sample size is too limited still to determine needed ASDS deck size...  :P
2 standing and 1 fell over does not a trend line make...  ???
In my line of work (low volume product testing) the minimum sample size to find standard deviation is considered 10 units for initial work and 30 units to set limits...
Just saying...  ;)

My opinion... so far the deck size meets requirements...  :D
Need 27 more landings to determine if boat is truly too big...  ;)

I suspect the initial comment was tongue-firmly-in-cheek?!

The larger the ASDS is, the less it will be affected by waves - i.e. make it smaller and it will pitch and roll more, which in turn will make landing more difficult.

Online meekGee

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #874 on: 05/06/2016 06:07 PM »
I think the time may be coming that this whole section of the forum needs to be renamed to remove 'reusable' from the title because "of course rockets are reusable" ! It's the throw away stages which are rapidly becoming the quaint buggy-whip type story. It will soon be considered an unusual waste.

No, the title can only be changed to recoverable at this time. 
You are absolutely correct that re-use has not yet been demonstrated.  But if I had to bet, I'd guess at least an 80% chance it will be demonstrated soon.  In fact I will bet:

I'm willing to offer 5:1 odds of the launch of a re-used core by SpaceX within a year.  In other words, for a $10 bet, if SpaceX re-launches a core on or before 6 May 2017, you pay me $10.  If no such launch occurs, I'll pay you $50.

Betting on the economic re-use, not just re-use of a core, would be better yet.  It seems impossible to settle, though, since there is no current agreement on current costs, or whether SpaceX is making a profit on their current launches.  So we need to stick to something that can be unambiguously observed.

Any takers?

I'd say that unless SpaceX are flat-out misleading everyone about what they discovered on the returned stages, it's their price to set.

They will be miles ahead of anyone else in terms of cost, so almost by definition they can set a price that is low enough in order to attract as many customers as they want, low enough to grow the market, and yet high enough to make a good profit.

We're basically talking about launch a heavy booster for the cost of:
- the second stage
- the first stage / nFlights
- any recycle costs.
... and starting with a pretty low cost rocket to begin with.

... and this belongs in a general reusability thread.
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Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #875 on: 05/06/2016 06:48 PM »
Same distance as for SES-9, but farther out than the "last time" they returned with an intact stage on board, ie CRS-8, when they dilly-dallied on returning to port.

Marine forecast is good through middle of next week, so they should be able to get home without weather delays this time.
Me Mom's old man was a cockney and
she would sing some of the old songs
to us... your comment (bolded) brought
to mind this song...

    My old man said "Foller the van,
    And don't dilly dally on the way".
    Off went the van wiv me 'ome packed in it,
    I followed on wiv me old cock linnet.
    But I dillied and dallied, dallied and I dillied
    Lost me way and don't know where to roam.

    Well you can't trust a special like the old time coppers.
    When you can't find your way 'ome.

Do we need to send a copper out to make sure OCISLY
gets 'ome with 'er wee falcon  ;D

edit: for reuse or recoverable etc... my view is this:

I would equate this day to the Wright Brothers, no longer having to rebuild or replacing their flying machine after every landing attempt  ;D ie, SpaceX are learning how to fly the First stage, and near to getting their wings. What it costs, is basically less than building a whole new first stage from scratch.

Whether or not it is economical is going to depend on how long and how much over the cost of a new stage is. What the break point is will depend on SpaceX's tolerance for expense. My guess it is going to be a developing story, as they improve design and recovery. "The End" has yet to be written to this story, and we shall have to wait a year or more to find out.

Gramps

edit 2, if this violates the thread, could Lars or whomever move it to an appropriate thread and let me know... taa
« Last Edit: 05/06/2016 07:03 PM by cro-magnon gramps »
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #876 on: 05/07/2016 01:48 PM »
Are you comparing with CRS-8 or SES-9?  SES-9 and JCSAT-14 were both quite a bit further out, IIRC.  On the other hand, the seas were much choppier for CRS-8 so they might make better time...

Now Vesselfinder is forecasting an early Sunday return, so EIII must be towing faster than usual:

Quote
Elsbeth III ETA according to Vesselfinder is May 8th at 06:25

(Cross posted from Datuser14)

But that would be a sub-48-hour inbound trip (after subtracting time for vehicle post-landing safing ops) vs a 96-hour outbound trip, so more than double speed inbound...is that even possible?

So I remain skeptical about Sunday arrival.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 01:54 PM by Kabloona »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #877 on: 05/07/2016 02:00 PM »
I'd put it at zero percent probability. That's almost 8 knots. More likely Monday night.
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Offline Herb Schaltegger

Are you comparing with CRS-8 or SES-9?  SES-9 and JCSAT-14 were both quite a bit further out, IIRC.  On the other hand, the seas were much choppier for CRS-8 so they might make better time...

Now Vesselfinder is forecasting an early Sunday return, so EIII must be towing faster than usual:

Quote
Elsbeth III ETA according to Vesselfinder is May 8th at 06:25

(Cross posted from Datuser14)

But that would be a sub-48-hour inbound trip (after subtracting time for vehicle post-landing safing ops) vs a 96-hour outbound trip, so more than double speed inbound...is that even possible?

So I remain skeptical about Sunday arrival.

Frankly, me too. But during the CRS-8 return, wasn't there some discussion of very strong currents? I am not familiar enough with the Florida Atlantic coast to know if that was anything out of the ordinary.
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Offline DatUser14

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #879 on: 05/07/2016 02:37 PM »
Are you comparing with CRS-8 or SES-9?  SES-9 and JCSAT-14 were both quite a bit further out, IIRC.  On the other hand, the seas were much choppier for CRS-8 so they might make better time...

Now Vesselfinder is forecasting an early Sunday return, so EIII must be towing faster than usual:

Quote
Elsbeth III ETA according to Vesselfinder is May 8th at 06:25

(Cross posted from Datuser14)

But that would be a sub-48-hour inbound trip (after subtracting time for vehicle post-landing safing ops) vs a 96-hour outbound trip, so more than double speed inbound...is that even possible?

So I remain skeptical about Sunday arrival.
Vesselfinder says 5.1 knots for Elsbeth III speed, is that fast? (Note: this info is not from their sat AIS subscription service, I don't have it).

« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 02:46 PM by DatUser14 »
Titan IVB was a cool rocket

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