Author Topic: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3  (Read 720128 times)

Offline CameronD

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #100 on: 03/17/2016 11:56 PM »
Quote
In summary:  What you're looking at is the first stage of a re-build of a section of the barge deck and substructure from the inside out.  We'll know when they're nearly done when the new deck plate(s) arrive.  McD Marine likely not only know about it, but insisted it be done this way - all paid for by the insurers.

Also, my source at McDonough tells me ABS is supervising when McDonough people are not on site, so ABS will have a say too in the extent/quality of repairs.

I should hope so!  That's a good move.  It's in their own best interest that ABS are okay with the repairs.. 'cause if they aren't, then for sure both the USCG and their insurers won't be either.
 
« Last Edit: 03/17/2016 11:58 PM by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline CyndyC

After which, insurance premiums will rise for either SpaceX (if they insure directly) or McD Marine (who will pass along costs to SpaceX through their leasing contract). All part of the risks of trying something new.

Call me on it if you must, and nobody likes an I-told-you-so, but I posted trying to warn against the idea of landing on the barge, and now all this for what, 1 extra minute of data? They could have landed in the ocean and still have had an extra 50 seconds of data, and a test of re-entry.

I retract my later suggestion that an attempt might be understandable with 2 more SES launches planned for this year. This particular SES launch would not have set the precedent I thought, unless everyone's hoping to be able to give an orbital boost to the next 2 as well.
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Offline CameronD

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #102 on: 03/18/2016 12:07 AM »
After which, insurance premiums will rise for either SpaceX (if they insure directly) or McD Marine (who will pass along costs to SpaceX through their leasing contract). All part of the risks of trying something new.

Call me on it if you must, and nobody likes an I-told-you-so, but I posted trying to warn against the idea of landing on the barge, and now all this for what, 1 extra minute of data? They could have landed in the ocean and still have had an extra 50 seconds of data, and a test of re-entry.

You're right, of course.. and SpaceX must be kicking themselves for trying it now, given the extent of the damage although they've got a few weeks to fix the ASDS before the next flight.

Perhaps they were mighty confident it would (at least) soft land??

EDIT:  I suppose one thing this DOES demonstrate is that, even with super-sized thrusters, they can't get the ASDS out of the way if the stage is coming in too hot..
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 12:10 AM by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #103 on: 03/18/2016 12:10 AM »
The deck piece being moved in the video looks much bigger than the original hole made by the rocket. The impact must have damaged deck beams adjacent to the hole.

Too bad we can't get a drone's-eye view now, because the hole after they cut that piece out must be much larger.

Worse yet, the lifted piece looked to be from only one quadrant of the hole area.

Looking more closely a 2nd time full screen, there are quite a few boards covering an area much larger than the original hole, and still a larger actual hole section uncovered, although some or all of the boards may be there just to protect undamaged deck from the machinery, not to keep people or machinery from falling inside.


I don't necessarily interpret that as a sign of an enlarged damage area.  It means they aren't just patching the hole, they're replacing the rectangular plates that were damaged as entire units.  This gives them standard dimensions and framework segments to work with, and ensures that there are no hidden weak areas.


It's like replacing a windshield rather than just filling a crack in it.  You get a better repair.
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Offline Okie_Steve

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #104 on: 03/18/2016 12:57 AM »
After which, insurance premiums will rise for either SpaceX (if they insure directly) or McD Marine (who will pass along costs to SpaceX through their leasing contract). All part of the risks of trying something new.

Call me on it if you must, and nobody likes an I-told-you-so, but I posted trying to warn against the idea of landing on the barge, and now all this for what, 1 extra minute of data? They could have landed in the ocean and still have had an extra 50 seconds of data, and a test of re-entry.

You're right, of course.. and SpaceX must be kicking themselves for trying it now, given the extent of the damage although they've got a few weeks to fix the ASDS before the next flight.

Perhaps they were mighty confident it would (at least) soft land??

EDIT:  I suppose one thing this DOES demonstrate is that, even with super-sized thrusters, they can't get the ASDS out of the way if the stage is coming in too hot..

actually I think they expected it to break up in reentry, but if it made it far enough to hit and cause damage that is just the cost of doing business in a test.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #105 on: 03/18/2016 01:10 AM »
After which, insurance premiums will rise for either SpaceX (if they insure directly) or McD Marine (who will pass along costs to SpaceX through their leasing contract). All part of the risks of trying something new.

Call me on it if you must, and nobody likes an I-told-you-so, but I posted trying to warn against the idea of landing on the barge, and now all this for what, 1 extra minute of data? They could have landed in the ocean and still have had an extra 50 seconds of data, and a test of re-entry.

Gotta give them credit for not being afraid to fail spectacularly, though. Go big, or go home!

Offline CyndyC

You're right, of course..
Good to know someone agrees and I'm not just being silly. All I saw in posts after the launch was, "Well, they got data."

Quote
Perhaps they were mighty confident it would (at least) soft land??
The word was that SpaceX themselves had zero confidence in the success of this landing, which became less obvious with the growing enthusiasm from others.

Quote
EDIT:  I suppose one thing this DOES demonstrate is that, even with super-sized thrusters, they can't get the ASDS out of the way if the stage is coming in too hot..
Isn't the rocket what's supposed to get out of the way? I think the ASDS positioning system is only set up to keep the target in one place, and the rocket carries some guidance to redirect itself.
"Either lead, follow, or get out of the way." -- quote of debatable origin tweeted by Ted Turner and previously seen on his desk

Offline CameronD

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #107 on: 03/18/2016 01:36 AM »
[actually I think they expected it to break up in reentry, but if it made it far enough to hit and cause damage that is just the cost of doing business in a test.

Well if they expected it to break up on re-entry, wouldn't that be an even better reason to get the (poor little insignificant fragile) ASDS well away from the IIP??

With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #108 on: 03/18/2016 01:42 AM »
Quote
Isn't the rocket what's supposed to get out of the way? I think the ASDS positioning system is only set up to keep the target in one place, and the rocket carries some guidance to redirect itself.

The stage has no redirect capability. It has one programmed target, and it does its darndest to get there regardless.

The only "divert" option is to send the ASDS away from the landing zone, in case weather is too bad to attempt landing, for example. That happened once, during the storm that damaged the containers with 30-foot waves, IIRC.
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 01:43 AM by Kabloona »

Offline CameronD

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #109 on: 03/18/2016 01:44 AM »
EDIT:  I suppose one thing this DOES demonstrate is that, even with super-sized thrusters, they can't get the ASDS out of the way if the stage is coming in too hot..
Isn't the rocket what's supposed to get out of the way? I think the ASDS positioning system is only set up to keep the target in one place, and the rocket carries some guidance to redirect itself.

You mean to say, perhaps they were trying to get the rocket to get out of the way... and



 ;) ;D
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 01:46 AM by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline bstrong

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #110 on: 03/18/2016 01:49 AM »
One of the many things they're learning is how quickly an ASDS can be patched up and returned to service after sustaining a variety of different types of damage, figuring out which contractors can be relied upon to do get things done quickly, etc. This will ultimately be an important input into an analysis of how large a fleet they need to maintain on each coast, which will be one of the big cost drivers for recovery operations.

So, they're definitely learning things from putting the ASDS out there every time.

Offline CyndyC

One of the many things they're learning is how quickly an ASDS can be patched up and returned to service after sustaining a variety of different types of damage, figuring out which contractors can be relied upon to do get things done quickly, etc. This will ultimately be an important input into an analysis of how large a fleet they need to maintain on each coast, which will be one of the big cost drivers for recovery operations.

So, they're definitely learning things from putting the ASDS out there every time.

SpaceX hasn't seemed to have any problems getting the right fleets together and quickly.
"Either lead, follow, or get out of the way." -- quote of debatable origin tweeted by Ted Turner and previously seen on his desk

Offline CyndyC

Gotta give them credit for not being afraid to fail spectacularly, though. Go big, or go home!

I just went big disagreeing with the actions of a company with over 4,000 employees, and I'm already at home.
"Either lead, follow, or get out of the way." -- quote of debatable origin tweeted by Ted Turner and previously seen on his desk

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #113 on: 03/18/2016 02:01 AM »
Gotta give them credit for not being afraid to fail spectacularly, though. Go big, or go home!

I just went big disagreeing with the actions of a company with over 4,000 employees, and I'm already at home.

Well, like Gwynne Shotwell said of Grasshopper/F9R Dev, if they didn't crash, they weren't trying hard enough.  ;)
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 02:02 AM by Kabloona »

Offline CameronD

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #114 on: 03/18/2016 02:07 AM »
Well, like Gwynne Shotwell said of Grasshopper/F9R Dev, if they didn't crash, they weren't trying hard enough.  ;)

Well, right about now, McDonough Marine are probably wondering why they agreed to lease one of their newest barges to SpaceX only to have them go at it with oxy-torches and welders..
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #115 on: 03/18/2016 02:11 AM »
Well, like Gwynne Shotwell said of Grasshopper/F9R Dev, if they didn't crash, they weren't trying hard enough.  ;)

Well, right about now, McDonough Marine are probably wondering why they agreed to lease one of their newest barges to SpaceX only to have them go at it with oxy-torches and welders..

Being handsomely paid on a long-term lease, plus SpaceX pays for repairs? They're smiling all the way to the bank...

Offline Req

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #116 on: 03/18/2016 02:23 AM »
My initial take on the "not expected to succeed" statement while also sending the ASDS out(mixed messages), was that they did have a reasonable expectation that it would work(or not fail in an uncharacteristically spectacular way) but wanted to manage expectations on the public side, especially given recent history.
« Last Edit: 03/18/2016 02:24 AM by Req »

Offline AJW

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #117 on: 03/18/2016 03:35 AM »
I am still expecting to hear that the 9 merlins and octaweb are below the deck.  The hole is nearly the size of the octaweb, so there is reason to believe that the octaweb fully penetrated the upper deck.  The decking is bent inwards, so there is no indication that the octaweb exited through the entry wound, nor is there any reason that it should.  The stage exploding above deck would only force it further in and not pull it out.   If the octaweb had punched through both the upper and lower decks I would expect the repair to require a dry-dock.

Offline OxCartMark

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #118 on: 03/18/2016 03:42 AM »
I don't see the damage being that bad in the big scheme.  I'm gonna guess it at $250k to fix.  Might be off by a factor of 10 on the high end but $250k feels good to me.  Actually, it seems likely that the price of this barge fixing is lower than the price to replace equipment at the ends as we've previously seen done.  Now as long as I'm guessing and speculating, what did SpaceX think the odds of a good landing were?  Hmm, 1%, 0.01   .  So what is the value of a returned stage?  $40M?  Less if its damaged from the high energy SES-9 entry, more if you consider the research value and the timing of having that research knowledge earlier rather than later in the development of downstream products.  So a 1% chance of re-collecting a $40M asset has an expected value of $400k and the damage incurred is less than that.  Sounds like they made a good bet. 

Has anyone considered the possibility that they are constructing a missile silo or launch tube rather than repairing?

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #119 on: 03/18/2016 03:47 AM »
After which, insurance premiums will rise for either SpaceX (if they insure directly) or McD Marine (who will pass along costs to SpaceX through their leasing contract). All part of the risks of trying something new.

Call me on it if you must, and nobody likes an I-told-you-so, but I posted trying to warn against the idea of landing on the barge, and now all this for what, 1 extra minute of data? They could have landed in the ocean and still have had an extra 50 seconds of data, and a test of re-entry.

You're right, of course.. and SpaceX must be kicking themselves for trying it now, given the extent of the damage although they've got a few weeks to fix the ASDS before the next flight.

Perhaps they were mighty confident it would (at least) soft land??

EDIT:  I suppose one thing this DOES demonstrate is that, even with super-sized thrusters, they can't get the ASDS out of the way if the stage is coming in too hot..
Perhaps they will/can fire the FTS next time at the last moments prior to impact to reduce damage if telemetry indicates a very hard landing is about to occur...
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