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#80
by
TrevorMonty
on 13 Sep, 2021 16:21
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There are no rockets available to launch starliner. All atlas v are spoken for, and ula has NO plans currently to human rate Vulcan. It's just not possible for starliner to be commercial (even aside from it costing 2x as much as dragon).
Not true.
ULA has specifically designed Vulcan to support Starliner and crew Dreamchaser.
Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk
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#81
by
AU1.52
on 13 Sep, 2021 18:19
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It will however need a new payload adapter as Starliner diameter is less than Centaur V diameter (4.65 vs 5.4 meters)
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#82
by
Comga
on 18 Sep, 2021 17:00
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It will however need a new payload adapter as Starliner diameter is less than Centaur V diameter (4.65 vs 5.4 meters)
Needing a new adapter goes without saying.
It would need a new one for any new rocket regardless of the diameter.
PS. That’s the least of the obstacles to uses other than Commercial Crew, the subject of this thread.
The first is getting it flying.
The second is cost.
Others can continue with the list.
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#83
by
joek
on 18 Sep, 2021 17:31
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Needing a new adapter goes without saying.
It would need a new one for any new rocket regardless of the diameter.
...
Agree; more existential question for Boeing: Do they have interest or fortitude to pursue commercial non-NASA missions? Not getting good vibes. OTOH, as a backup-secondary commercial provider, they may be crucial in growing the commercial market (at least in the near term). But only if they stick with it and have a reasonably competitive offer.
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#84
by
deadman1204
on 19 Sep, 2021 13:07
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It's basically impossible for starliner to do a commercial launch. They have a set number of atlas v rockets and nothing else. Vulcan isn't human rated.
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#85
by
Welsh Dragon
on 19 Sep, 2021 13:34
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#86
by
jebbo
on 20 Sep, 2021 06:40
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#87
by
Jim
on 20 Sep, 2021 14:46
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It's basically impossible for starliner to do a commercial launch. They have a set number of atlas v rockets and nothing else. Vulcan isn't human rated.
Wrong
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#88
by
DreamyPickle
on 20 Sep, 2021 15:03
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I'm not usually a fan of brief negative responses but all the claims that "Vulcan is not human rated" are getting old.
Yes: Vulcan is not currently human rated but that can change. Atlas V also lacked human rating at the start.
This is a smaller challenge compared to signing up actual customers, or even getting crew to the ISS.
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#89
by
kevinof
on 20 Sep, 2021 15:15
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It's basically impossible for starliner to do a commercial launch. They have a set number of atlas v rockets and nothing else. Vulcan isn't human rated.
Wrong
There are three statements in the post Jim. Which ones, in your opinion are wrong?
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#90
by
AstroWare
on 20 Sep, 2021 15:26
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I'm not usually a fan of brief negative responses but all the claims that "Vulcan is not human rated" are getting old.
Yes: Vulcan is not currently human rated but that can change. Atlas V also lacked human rating at the start.
This is a smaller challenge compared to signing up actual customers, or even getting crew to the ISS.
I agree with this sentiment, but I hope as soon as starliner is operational*, that Boeing makes some public efforts to plan for a post-Atlas starliner future. Be that Vulcan or another LV.
I think we all want to see Starliner succeed and the Atlas EOL cliff makes people nervous. Boeing could decide to walk away after the first batch of CCP flights. A very good indication that they are going to continue with Starliner would be to qualify another LV.
And maybe some people like myself are more nervous than others, as we don't all have the inside info that Jim or others may have.
*which should be Boeing's sole focus right now, at least publically.
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#91
by
hektor
on 20 Sep, 2021 15:26
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" They have a set number of atlas v rockets " is correct. The first statement (and therefore ... and nothing else) is wrong. The last statement is like... not yet.
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#92
by
AstroWare
on 20 Sep, 2021 15:59
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Interesting thread from Scott Manley:
https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1439816198703628292
--- Tony
Especially once Axiom modules are available, couldn't this privately funded astronaut stay the entire ~6 month crew rotation duration? I don't think NASA allows this at present, but they could permit it in the future.
This would make more sense for a privately funded astronaut-researcher as opposed to a tourist flight, but it may be a good compliment to the axiom dedicated short stay flights.
Axiom-Dragon (short stay)
(2) flights/yr
(3) passengers each
(1) professional commander
Axiom-Starliner (long stay)
(1) flight/yr
(1) passenger each
The long stay astronaut-researcher could even monitor and maintain the experiments brought with the short stay astronauts.
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#93
by
jebbo
on 20 Sep, 2021 19:17
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Especially once Axiom modules are available, couldn't this privately funded astronaut stay the entire ~6 month crew rotation duration? I don't think NASA allows this at present, but they could permit it in the future.
Something like this could work, but I'm expecting something more like:
- very short term, they sell the extra seats to Nasa
- once properly flying, they will do 2 crew rotation flights a year like SpaceX, with the usual week or so overlap (might mean only 3 long stay crew each for SpaceX and Boeing for a long term capacity of 9 but I'd hope for 11)
- then the additional seat can be sold for a 1 week visit, returning with the departing crew.
The critical item here is docking ports ... not sure they have quite enough (could a Prichal port be used???). If not would have to delay until the Axiom stuff is in orbit but that might align with Vulcan crew rating anyway ...
--- Tony
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#94
by
Sam Ho
on 21 Sep, 2021 02:45
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The critical item here is docking ports ... not sure they have quite enough (could a Prichal port be used???). If not would have to delay until the Axiom stuff is in orbit but that might align with Vulcan crew rating anyway ...
There are only two IDS ports right now, so it is not possible to do a direct handover while a Dragon is docked, as that would require three ports: two for the Starliners and one for the Dragon. Prichal has SSVP ports, as is typical for the Russian segment. I believe Axiom plans to launch one IDS docking adapter with each Hub module.
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#95
by
AstroWare
on 21 Sep, 2021 02:53
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Something like this could work, but I'm expecting something more like:
- very short term, they sell the extra seats to Nasa
- once properly flying, they will do 2 crew rotation flights a year like SpaceX... Snip
Short term, NASA may decide to fill the additional seat - but it could be with cargo. The fifth seat is optional.
An extra NASA Astro *costs* money, so there would need to be a reason. Letting Boeing sell the 5th seat let's NASA save money on the flight (and revenue for consumables sold to the customer).
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think NASA would even be obligated to pay Boeing for use of the 5th seat, beyond mission specific items like consumables. They bought the whole flight! Boeing surely wouldn't give them a discount if they only flew 2 crew members! NASA allows Boeing to sell the seat on the flight in exchange for a discount or barter.
So if they don't need an extra Astro, I'd expect cargo to fly instead. Remember that 5th seat goes both uphill and downhill, so it takes place of NASA downmass too.
As to the second point, NASA standard rotation is 6 months. Even when both providers are operational, there will only be 2 NASA crew rotation flights total per year. They aren't suddenly going to switch to 4 rotation flights per year...
( Oh, and none of the Russian ports are compatible with American crew vehicles )
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#96
by
AstroWare
on 21 Sep, 2021 02:57
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The critical item here is docking ports ... not sure they have quite enough (could a Prichal port be used???). If not would have to delay until the Axiom stuff is in orbit but that might align with Vulcan crew rating anyway ...
There are only two IDS ports right now, so it is not possible to do a direct handover while a Dragon is docked, as that would require three ports: two for the Starliners and one for the Dragon. Prichal has SSVP ports, as is typical for the Russian segment. I believe Axiom plans to launch one IDS docking adapter with each Hub module.
Maybe Boeing could ask the Dragon Astronauts to take their ship out on a free-flight weekend getaway.
(Kidding, of course, but it could work...)
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#97
by
Cherokee43v6
on 21 Sep, 2021 02:58
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I'm curious.
One area that seems to be missing from this discussion is selling Starliners to third party operators.
After-all, Boeing is in the business of selling their commercial products (airplanes) to operators (airlines and leasing companies).
Might it make financial sense for a company like Axiom to purchase one (or more) CST-100s and then independently contract for launch services? Find their own economies of operation?
Yes, currently they are limited to the AtlasV as a launch vehicle, but they would have the incentive to explore or even fund alternative LVs for their service. (Note, in a commercial scenario, LV redundancy is not a requirement.)
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#98
by
AstroWare
on 21 Sep, 2021 03:20
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I'm curious.
One area that seems to be missing from this discussion is selling Starliners to third party operators.
After-all, Boeing is in the business of selling their commercial products (airplanes) to operators (airlines and leasing companies).
Might it make financial sense for a company like Axiom to purchase one (or more) CST-100s and then independently contract for launch services? Find their own economies of operation?
Yes, currently they are limited to the AtlasV as a launch vehicle, but they would have the incentive to explore or even fund alternative LVs for their service. (Note, in a commercial scenario, LV redundancy is not a requirement.)
Between the refurbishment of the capsule and construction of new service modules, likely all requiring special tooling and proprietary procedures... I think Boeing would end up doing all the work in this scenario anyways. instead of purchase, perhaps more akin to a Lease? Anyway, I'm sure you could streamline many operations over the status quo, and perhaps pull some from Boeing to your own hypothetical company. But lots of $$$ still is going to go to paying Boeing each flight.
And at that point you are kinda paying for the exclusive rights. To be profitable, you would need to keep a steady flight rate so you dont pay for downtime that could be utilized by other users ( like NASA ).
( Someday, I think the sale of spacecraft to operators will make sense, but only for fully reusable vehicles. Reusable vehicles are a product. Expendable vehicles are a service )
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#99
by
jebbo
on 21 Sep, 2021 06:55
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So if they don't need an extra Astro, I'd expect cargo to fly instead. Remember that 5th seat goes both uphill and downhill, so it takes place of NASA downmass too.
Sounds right.
As to the second point, NASA standard rotation is 6 months. Even when both providers are operational, there will only be 2 NASA crew rotation flights total per year. They aren't suddenly going to switch to 4 rotation flights per year...
I know it's optimistic, but I still think there's a very small chance: when they did the tour of Nauka, Oleg
talked about expansion to 8 and hinted at further expansion. They've also been doing checkouts on CASA
which would suggest this as well.
It is probably for temporary arrangements but a tiny part of me is hopeful :-)
( Oh, and none of the Russian ports are compatible with American crew vehicles )
Cheers. Was pretty sure this was the case but wasn't 100% sure. Which makes the above discussion irrelevant
until the Axiom modules ~2024 anyway.
--- Tony