Who will compete with SpaceX? The last two and next two years.

[John Alan]

I agree... A6 will fly before ITSy... no doubts...
But I believe ITSy will fly more often and reach "mature" status (25+ flights) sooner...

On the other thought... F9 system will be still be flying payloads and making money in 2030...

Just my 2 cents on recent comments above... 

I would be willing to bet ITSy gets to launch #3 before SLS does.

Since I personally think (my opinion) SLS will only fly about 2 times and then be retired as grossly overpriced...
I agree with your statement... 

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

As a speculation of the crossovers and transitions from an older vehicle to a newer one when the launch rates are very high and you cannot just stand-down for a couple of years while you get the new LV up and working.

I posted this graph before and here it is again as a instructional about the future of F9/FH as well as the life of any follow on to F9. It will not be operated forever either. Do not expect it to operate for more than 25 years.

The start of life of a new LV is postulated at every 7 years with as much as 6 to 13 years to ramp up. This postulated scenario includes the FH as a new LV. Such that in 13 years the FH will be flying many times more than the F9. As the next gen LV (ITSy) starts up the F9 will be flown very few times but the FH many. The ITSy initially would take over the launch manifest increases or payload size increases beyond the capability of FH. But eventually at about 6 on the ITSy will be the workhorse and FH will be having few if any flights. I basically see a 6 year overlap of flights between one LV and the next while the new vehicle ramps up taking over the payloads manifests from the other LV gradually through the workoff and addition of new payloads to the manifest where most new payloads are contracted on the next gen LV and fewer and fewer are contracted onto the older LVs. It is possible to have as many as 3 generations of LVs at one time but only very briefly.

A note about the FH and that is it could see a reusable US but not one for the F9. For large payloads the FH would fly the F9 US as an EXPD US. But fly something that could look similar to the ITSy shape as a reusable US.  In this case with a reusable US the use of F9 with an EXPD US would rapidly cease since the FH with reusable US would handle the same payloads as an F9 but at cheaper / flight price than an F9 with EXPD US.

[DreamyPickle]

Launch rates of hundreds per year are a distant fantasy, I don't think speculating about that at this point is very useful. It would rather belong in the "advanced concepts" forum. It might be better to restrict the conversion to more medium term, not much later than 2020 or 2022.

If you look at current public plans the market will look extremely different. By the early 2020s the current leading competitors to Falcon (Atlas V and Ariane 5) will start getting phased out and we will see Ariane 6, Vulcan and New Glenn flying. But can any of those competitors seriously go against the Falcon line? They're barely competitive with today's Falcon, and by that point reliability and launch rate issues will be solved and the vehicle will have 100+ launches.

Only New Glenn is taking a shot at reusability but I think it's too large to be effective. Even if it's somehow able to snatch the top of the market from Falcon Heavy it will have low flight rates and high fixed costs. People seem to focus on SpaceX's performance shortfalls but the lower end has many more launches and that is the key to their strategy. For example for Atlas V a majority (37/72) of launches so far are of the smallest configuration 401.

[AncientU]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches per year in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

[meekGee]

As far I am concerned, what Elon will present - thing nicknamed ITSy by fans here - on this year's IAC will be notional and abstract. Like original ITS, only more realistic.

In other words, less notional than previous pipedream, but still fantasy. Expect more descoping in a year, as paintrain called "reality" hits Musk's unbounded ambitions.

What amuses me to no end are claims like predicting obsoletness of F9/FH due to ITS(y) when latter are very paper rockets and will be for long years (fervent "THIS time SpaceX will do something actually on time!!!11" denials nothwithstanding). Their job is safe for long time (at least 10 years).

If you find this criticism too harsh, too bad. Elon really should be more realistic from beginning and amazing peoples shouldn't lap it up.

You're using the word "descope" wrong.

Descope is when you promise an ISS of a certain size, and then deliver half of it and call it complete.

Itsy is an intermediate step to the same scope.

Keep calling it notional of you want, but the track record is not on your side.

[wannamoonbase]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

If SpaceX gets to a point where they fly twice a week I will be completely shocked.

And if they do I'd likely lose my job as I'd be watching too many launch and landings.

[AncientU]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

If SpaceX gets to a point where they fly twice a week I will be completely shocked.

And if they do I'd likely lose my job as I'd be watching too many launch and landings.

By then, they'll only be televising the launches headed off-planet...

[Robotbeat]

And I'd bet money ITSy will reach space before Ariane 6 does.

I'll take that bet.

Consider this. 

The Ariane 6 launch pad (ELA-4) is under construction, well underway.  The ITSy launch pad?  These are big lead-time efforts.

The Vinci second stage engine is deep into testing.  At least one P120C booster has been test fired.  Vulcain 2.1 parts have been fabricated.  The Ariane 6 assembly building is under construction.  Etc & Etc.  This train has left the station.

 - Ed Kyle

OK, didn't know it was that far along. I still think ITSy has a chance of beating it to space, tho less than 50%. Probably will beat the heaviest version.

[Coastal Ron]

It is more than  'distant' or 'fantasy', it is idiotic.  Block 5 is not going to be what you think.

What do you think it will be?

[Robotbeat]

It is more than  'distant' or 'fantasy', it is idiotic.  Block 5 is not going to be what you think.

What do you think it will be?

I think he was saying it'll be partially reusable, not fully reusable. Seems reasonable to me.

In principle, Falcon 9 block 5 might be able to launch a recoverable upper stage, but likely only for small payloads to LEO, i.e. almost none of the kinds of launches that Atlas V does.

[Nomadd]

Lets talk some reality.  A single Falcon 9 Block 5 is only one upper stage and fairing.  That is one launch, much less than 20-30.

Did that make sense to everybody but me?

[tvg98]

Lets talk some reality.  A single Falcon 9 Block 5 is only one upper stage and fairing.  That is one launch, much less than 20-30.

Did that make sense to everybody but me?

I'm assuming that means that the benefits of reuse won't be as high as anticipated because even if you have rapid reuse of the first stage, the second stage and fairings will be the new bottlenecks as they will likely continue to be expendable components for some time?  I really wouldn't mind if Jim explained exactly what it is he meant by that.

[groundbound]

Lets talk some reality.  A single Falcon 9 Block 5 is only one upper stage and fairing.  That is one launch, much less than 20-30.

Did that make sense to everybody but me?

The Jim data compression protocol overcompressed and suffered a little information loss.

[meekGee]

Not too long ago the very existence of the LEO constellation was proclaimed fantasy, the VLEO constellation was declared infeasible and people proposing it didn't understand anything...

Now, LEO and vLEO are happening, by multiple vendors, but still supposedly we don't know anything...

Shrug.  As long as it's happening...

[meekGee]

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches per year in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

The SpaceX constellation seems set to use small satellites, perhaps 100 kg each, plus or minus.  SpaceX is almost certainly planning to launch these in big groups on Falcon 9 or Heavy.  It could launch thousands of satellites using only a few dozen launches during a period of several years.  If the company needed 100 Falcon 9 launches per year just to support this constellation, it would be a very bad business plan, IMO.  (I'm skeptical of the plan even if they are launched en-mass, but we'll see.)

 - Ed Kyle

I thought the number was much higher than 100 kg....   More like 500 kg....  To the point where we weren't sure if a single F9 can do a full orbital plane's worth in one shot.

[octavo]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

If SpaceX gets to a point where they fly twice a week I will be completely shocked.

And if they do I'd likely lose my job as I'd be watching too many launch and landings.

By then, they'll only be televising the launches headed off-planet...

Televising? I know your forum name implies a certain antiquity, but these days we mostly stream them and remote cameras are cheap enough that I doubt it.

[guckyfan]

The SpaceX constellation seems set to use small satellites, perhaps 100 kg each, plus or minus.

If memory serves, it is ~380kg from the FCC application.

[Ludus]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

The Starlink Constellation (if that is what it will be called) requires a hundred F9 launches per year or more.  It starts flying in 2019.  The rest of the World's launches only need to increase 10% for there to be 100s of launches per year in early-2020s.

What is 'distant' or 'fantasy' about this?

Wrong

It is more than  'distant' or 'fantasy', it is inane.  Starlink Constellation launch rate is not going to happen  Block 5 is not going to be what you think.

Lets talk some reality.  A single Falcon 9 Block 5 is only one upper stage and fairing.  That is one launch, much less than 20-30.

This thread needs to be locked, it serves no purpose other than a mouthpiece for a minor Spacex sect/cult.

What do you think is likely to happen with SpaceX Starlink launches? What will SpaceX achieve with F9 Block 5?

[Mader Levap]

But descoping will likely only happen once: this year.

I guess that depends on what exactly Elon will present.

And not because of a paintrain called reality but a paintrain called cost.

I would argue costs are part of reality.

Reality hit Elon and SpaceX real hard when they started working on FH. But nevertheless, FH is no longer a paper rocket. Despite all problems they kept pushing and descoped FH only once.

There is one big difference: while doubtful about schedule, I never doubted FH as presented could exist and will exist. But original ITS was for me very, very unrealistic from beginning.

Not because of reality but because of cost: crossfeed went out the window.

There is world of difference between removing one feature (granted, pretty important, but stll) and changing your plans so much that you have effectively completely new rocket (in fact, change of diameter alone is enough).

Not too harsh, just wrong.

What is wrong there?

Descope is when you promise an ISS of a certain size, and then deliver half of it and call it complete. Itsy is an intermediate step to the same scope.

This is how certain people explain away implications of ITSy's existence, huh.

What I predict will happen (since ITSy details arent known yet)? Instead of ITS we will have ITSy and ITS will be deferred to vague future. Totally not descoping.

Keep calling it notional of you want, but the track record is not on your side.

Track record of what? If we are talking about schedules and timelines, certainly SpaceX's record so far shows ITSy will be years later than they will say it will be. In fact, SpaceX is already very well known for that - if you want to be nice, you call it "launch when ready".

[Jim]

Falcon 9 can do all Atlas V 401 launches with RTLS or low energy ASDS landings.  There are maybe 20-30 Atlas launches to go -- ever.
A single Falcon 9 Block 5 could launch most all of them.

Lets talk some reality.  A single Falcon 9 Block 5 is only one upper stage and fairing.  That is one launch, much less than 20-30.

Now does it makes sense?  He is stating that a single Falcon 9 Block 5 can launch the remaining (20-30) Atlas V 401 launches