Stephen C. Smith @SpaceKSCBlog 4m4 minutes agoThis chart is in the prepared testimony by @SpaceX rep Tim Hughes. Impressive how SpaceX has brought commercial launch business back to U.S.
SpaceX is the world’s leading commercial launch services provider measured by manifested launches. A substantial majority of our more than 70 missions under contract are commercial. This year, we are on track to launch more than half of the world’s accessible (12) commercial missions to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).(12) Not all of the world’s commercial satellite launches are open to competition.
UPDATE: added Tim Hughes prepared remarks as 2nd attachment, which include:QuoteSpaceX is the world’s leading commercial launch services provider measured by manifested launches. A substantial majority of our more than 70 missions under contract are commercial. This year, we are on track to launch more than half of the world’s accessible commercial missions to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).
SpaceX is the world’s leading commercial launch services provider measured by manifested launches. A substantial majority of our more than 70 missions under contract are commercial. This year, we are on track to launch more than half of the world’s accessible commercial missions to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).
This is a good bit of spin.
Arianespace will launch more GTO payloads this year than SpaceX with their dual launches.
Also, the SpaceX schedule delays pushing some payloads into 2018 make the "year of launch" graph look like it's ramping up really nicely for them
Payload contracts won per year is a better way of seeing what's going on with the market.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/13/2017 01:22 pmUPDATE: added Tim Hughes prepared remarks as 2nd attachment, which include:QuoteSpaceX is the world’s leading commercial launch services provider measured by manifested launches. A substantial majority of our more than 70 missions under contract are commercial. This year, we are on track to launch more than half of the world’s accessible commercial missions to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).This is a good bit of spin. Arianespace will launch more GTO payloads this year than SpaceX with their dual launches. Also, the SpaceX schedule delays pushing some payloads into 2018 make the "year of launch" graph look like it's ramping up really nicely for them Payload contracts won per year is a better way of seeing what's going on with the market.
Or revenue per year, if that info were available - which is probably isn't. This seems to be a pitch about economic activity, so dollars generated would be a better comparison than launches. All those launches are certainly not equal, any way you look at it.
Quote from: envy887 on 07/13/2017 02:48 pmOr revenue per year, if that info were available - which is probably isn't. This seems to be a pitch about economic activity, so dollars generated would be a better comparison than launches. All those launches are certainly not equal, any way you look at it.Trouble with revenue is that if you're reducing launch costs (eg through re-use) then your proportion of revenue is probably not a 'fair' indicator of worth. Otherwise just being more expensive would make a launch provider appear more significant.
To run in parallel with existing programs and increase the probability of success of establishing initialhuman presence on the Moon or Mars within the next in eight years to ten years,
This is a good bit of spin. Arianespace will launch more GTO payloads this year than SpaceX with their dual launches.
...SpaceX has ALREADY dramatically disrupted the launch market, and they're only just hitting their stride. I could easily see a >$50b valuation after getting a few Constellation sats launched and astronauts launched around the Moon. A lot of hype built into that, but they're riding that wave right now....
It looks to me like SpaceX could be the next East India Company, possibly the most valuable company in history. They only have to be successful on SOME of the things above to be worth massively more than $50B in valuation. Hence my guess of closer to $500B.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/09/2017 11:44 pm...SpaceX has ALREADY dramatically disrupted the launch market, and they're only just hitting their stride. I could easily see a >$50b valuation after getting a few Constellation sats launched and astronauts launched around the Moon. A lot of hype built into that, but they're riding that wave right now....I'll take an outlier position here and bet you a good drink of your choice the valuation for this round is closer to $500B than it is to $50B. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this round or the next greatly exceed $500B. Why? Their satellite constellation gives them a global market to disrupt television, phone, and internet services; revenues could easily be in the hundreds of billions within just a few years. Their launch prices as they are right this moment basically give them a monopoly for any launch that is competitively bid. Yes, there are some small gaps in their capability but they can launch most things and FH will fill the gaps. Building their satellite constellation gives them extensive experience in satellite building that can be used for building other peoples satellites. Between satellite building and launching, there's about $500B in revenue to pursue. Further, if you share my view, space today is like the internet of the late 80's and early 90's and is poised for a couple decade period of exponential growth in countless ways already imagined and yet to be imagined. This means there are hundreds of billions in exploration, prospecting, tourism, and infrastructure that will be developing markets over the next two decades. Military spending also has to be considered. When many people start working and playing in space; all the trappings of society WILL follow. That means military spending for security. Spacex is poised to be in a near monopoly position on all the above; with the only possible near term contender being Blue Origin. Even if BO is equally successful (and I hope they are!), all the above is still a massive market for just two companies to share and the barrier to entry is extremely high for others to follow.It looks to me like SpaceX could be the next East India Company, possibly the most valuable company in history. They only have to be successful on SOME of the things above to be worth massively more than $50B in valuation. Hence my guess of closer to $500B.
Quote from: wes_wilson on 07/13/2017 05:22 pmIt looks to me like SpaceX could be the next East India Company, possibly the most valuable company in history. They only have to be successful on SOME of the things above to be worth massively more than $50B in valuation. Hence my guess of closer to $500B.$50bn for 10% of the company would go a long way paying for the Mars plans. But that would be really "mind boggling". But than, that's what HMXHMX said.P. S.: Boeing is valued at $124.41bn. For SpaceX to exceed this would be similar to Tesla recently overtaking GM.
I think the graph for commercial payloads per provider is in 2018 is misleading. The number of Ariane launchers per year is fairly limited. In 2018 JWST, BeppiColombo and Galileo will take 3 Arianes of the market (compared to only 1 of the 6 launches in 2017, for Galileo.) Therefore even if commercial providers wanted to book a ride on the Ariane instead of a Falcon, the supply just isn't there.
Boeing is the wrong company to compare to. If SpaceX is valued some insane amount, it's mostly because they'd essentially be some kind of telecommunications company.Think Comcast, ATT, Verizon, or Charter. All ~$100-200b companies. SpaceX would be able to compete on a much larger stage than those companies.Doesn't mean that SpaceX rules the world. Others will be competing, too. But accessing billions of consumers with a valuable service is exactly how a company can come to be worth 12 figures.But there's got to be a fairly high risk premium on that.
Worth noting this shows starts not payloads. E Ariane 5 performance dual launches (2 sats a time) which would require 2 Falcon flights.
True. Also, Ariane primary bay can deliver slightly heavier satellites than Falcon 9. Falcon Heavy is needed ...
