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#80
by
Peter NASA
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:08
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Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 11:53 AM
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east??
Afriad not. It's being dragged out east by a trough, but that's about to move away and the prediction is it will edge west again. This is even worse as it'll pick up over water and than smack into the cape.
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#81
by
Rapoc
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:14
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Peter NASA answers the question better than me ... ;-)
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#82
by
Jim
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:18
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KSC and CCAFS have been placed in HURCON III
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#83
by
Chris Bergin
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:21
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Jim - 28/8/2006 6:05 PM
KSC and CCAFS have been placed in HURCON III
For those of us who don't know what these "HURCON" status are, can you - or anyone else - explain it? Thanks.
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#84
by
DaveS
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:23
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Hurricane Conditions
Condition IV: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 72 hours. When a condition
IV is declared, implementation of procedures in the KSC Hurricane Plan will
begin. Designated personnel will continue with their normally assigned duties but
will also be available for duties associated with hurricane preparations.
Condition III: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 48 hours. During Condition
III, designated personnel will be relieved of their normal duties as required for
hurricane preparations and securing will begin. At the discretion of the Center
Director, non-essential personnel may be sent home at this time.
Condition II: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 24 hours. When Condition II
is declared, the Ride-Out Crew who are designated to remain at KSC in critical
facilities during the hurricane shall be notified of responsibility.
Condition I: expect sustained 50 knot winds within 12 hours. Securing of all
facilities should be completed during this time. In Condition I, all ingress and
egress to KSC shall cease at a time determined by the KSC Center Director. All
gates will be closed and the Hurricane Ride-Out crew will be on station until the
“all clear” is given.
Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Storm Surge
Category 1 74-95 mph 4-5 feet
Category 2 96-110 mph 6-8 feet
Category 3 111-130 mph 9-12 feet
Category 4 131-155 mph 13-19 feet
Category 5 greater than 155 mph greater than 19 feet
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#85
by
Avron
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:59
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It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
"mid-tropospheric high pressure
system over the southeastern United States will shift
east-southeastward during the next couple of days as a trough moves
in from the northwest. This would result in a northward turn of
Ernesto. "
ref:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200605.disc.html
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#86
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 17:59
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Peter NASA - 28/8/2006 12:55 PM
Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 11:53 AM
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east??
Afriad not. It's being dragged out east by a trough, but that's about to move away and the prediction is it will edge west again. This is even worse as it'll pick up over water and than smack into the cape.
A majority of the guidance still suggests a more eastward track is necessary... I don't see any chance this will "smack" KSC, nor does any track have that happening. It'd have to curve east then recurve northwest to do so and that's just not an option...
He has weakened more with the 18Z update as expected, interesting to look at Debby which took a very similar path in 2000 and died before leaving Cuba.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/DEBBY_graphics.html
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#87
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 18:01
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Avron - 28/8/2006 1:46 PM
It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
Let's try not to repost NHC bulletins, I'm sure that anyone interested enough to read this thread knows to read them already from NHC's website...
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#88
by
Avron
on 28 Aug, 2006 18:10
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rdale - 28/8/2006 1:48 PM
Avron - 28/8/2006 1:46 PM
It may move a lot more north and I hope turn more to the right... that's the trend we have seen thus far...
Let's try not to repost NHC bulletins, I'm sure that anyone interested enough to read this thread knows to read them already from NHC's website...
With all due respect Sir...
I quoted only the section that backed up my statement and provided a link so as to provide a reference to the quote..
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#89
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 18:21
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Gotcha - I didn't see any meteorology in your comment that added to the NHC discussion.
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#90
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 20:07
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Got this from a guy I worked with at Purdue:
Ernesto is a good example. I noticed an area of high shear in the GFS forecast over the northern Caribbean for Sunday. I thought its likely hurricane Ernesto might get sheared back to tropical storm status but the TPC stuck to its forecast of it intensifying to a strong cat 2 storm by Tuesday despite the shear and moving over Jamaica and Cuba.
The latest forecast shows rapid intensification from its 35 knot winds turning into a near cat 2 storm as it hits eastern Florida early Wednesday. I'm not sure this is realistic in two ways. First, the current path is almost due north and it would have to veer 45 degrees to the NW to hit Florida. OK, there is a weak ridge to the north that could deflect it west. But it would be unlikely to intensify that quickly given that the next 24 hours would be spent in contact with Cuba.
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#91
by
Radioheaded
on 28 Aug, 2006 20:27
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rdale, is my analysis of that info correct in that basically what we will see is weak Cat 1/tropical storm with the west side of the system just grazing KSC? I suppose that other than a complete swing out to sea, or disintegration, that would be the most "ideal" scenario.
James
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#92
by
Stowbridge
on 28 Aug, 2006 21:26
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Radioheaded - 28/8/2006 3:14 PM
rdale, is my analysis of that info correct in that basically what we will see is weak Cat 1/tropical storm with the west side of the system just grazing KSC? I suppose that other than a complete swing out to sea, or disintegration, that would be the most "ideal" scenario.
James
NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel.
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#93
by
Radioheaded
on 28 Aug, 2006 21:38
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Stowbridge - 28/8/2006 5:13 PM NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel.
I would tend to agree with that. However I don't think they would take any kind of chance with a tropical system, as unpredictable as they can be. That being said, if the projected path as of the 5pm update is correct, it would be a moot point anyway.
James
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#94
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 21:57
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"NASA would never have gotten it that wrong, if that was the case, I feel."
NASA doesn't do any tropical weather forecasting, everything they use comes from the National Hurricane Center.
The path of the storm isn't able to be pinned down other that to say it looks like it'll come up Florida. The question is the intensity, and if the latest NHC bulletin were to come true there would likely be no issue with winds on the pad.
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#95
by
Sphereion
on 28 Aug, 2006 22:01
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rdale - 28/8/2006 4:44 PM
The question is the intensity, and if the latest NHC bulletin were to come true there would likely be no issue with winds on the pad.
I don't understand how you come to that conclusion. The 5pm track show it is back to the east a bit and on a course to the Cape.
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#96
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 22:15
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Sphereion - 28/8/2006 5:48 PM
I don't understand how you come to that conclusion. The 5pm track show it is back to the east a bit and on a course to the Cape.
Course is on track for KSC but winds are not forecast to be very strong at all. Just a 20% chance that he'll have 50kt winds at that point. And to be honest, I still don't think he'll be much when he leaves Cuba. Still looks incredibly disorganized.
Scotty - 25/8/2006 10:24 PM
There might be a one day break in the pattern Sunday, as a patch of dryer air moves over Northern Florida.
Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be just like it has been for the last few days.
Needless to say - today was stinking beautiful...
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#97
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 23:50
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Ernesto looks HORRIBLE right now, very difficult for me to find the center, but from what I can pick up it appears to still be over land and has moved almost due west. That would be wonderful news if it continues.
If you look on a satellite map and see most of the activity off eastern Cuba - that's correct. And it it not Ernesto. That's a nice batch of thunderstorm with some gusty winds (33mph gust recorded last hour.) Reported winds around Ernie are running around 10-15mph.
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#98
by
DaveS
on 28 Aug, 2006 23:57
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rdale - 29/8/2006 1:37 AM
Ernesto looks HORRIBLE right now, very difficult for me to find the center, but from what I can pick up it appears to still be over land and has moved almost due west. That would be wonderful news if it continues.
If you look on a satellite map and see most of the activity off eastern Cuba - that's correct. And it it not Ernesto. That's a nice batch of thunderstorm with some gusty winds (33mph gust recorded last hour.) Reported winds around Ernie are running around 10-15mph.
Let me just get this correct: You're saying Ernesto is in the process of breaking up??
If that is what you're saysing, then it seems like the situation just took a 180° turn for the better!
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#99
by
mike robel
on 29 Aug, 2006 00:27
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The NOAA/NHS 8 o'clock track shows Ernesto staying a Tropical Storm over Florida, but exiting the state over Merritt Island. They say it still is pretty beefy, not a 15mph bunch of thunderstorms and we are in fact under a Hurrican Watch here on the island. No evacuation orders yet, but I have replenished my gasoline and consummables awaiting the inevitable power outtage I will suffer.
More at 1100
If that is what you're saysing, then it seems like the situation just took a 180° turn for the better!