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#60 by Zachstar on 28 Aug, 2006 07:24
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More good news perhaps? Is this what was mentioned as a signifigant change in yesterday's meetings?
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#61 by DaveS on 28 Aug, 2006 09:45
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Latest update from the NHC. Right now Ernesto is forecast to still have hurricane strength when it makes the closest approach to KSC. It's a 99.8% done deal: Atlantis will be rolled back to the VAB.
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#62 by nethegauner on 28 Aug, 2006 09:49
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Quote
DaveS - 28/8/2006 11:32 AM
Latest update from the NHC. Right now Ernesto is forecast to still have hurricane strength when it makes the closest approach to KSC. It's a 99.8% done deal: Atlantis will be rolled back to the VAB.Noooooooooooooooooo!
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#63 by gordo on 28 Aug, 2006 10:37
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yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today. The other thing that could really cause trouble is that the current path takes the storm right over KSC. If she does too much damage then the window would be gone....and who knows for how long
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#64 by DaveS on 28 Aug, 2006 10:41
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gordo - 28/8/2006 12:24 PM
Not today. The earliest they could rollback is noon Tuesday.
yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today. -
#65 by jbk024 on 28 Aug, 2006 10:44
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And just when you thought things couldn't get any worse.... how about the possibility that Ernesto's going to be a Cat 3 as it churns up the east coast of Florida...
NHC Discussion Comments...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I don't suppose the old "Marooned" launch-through-the-eye-of-the-hurricane contingency plan would work...
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#66 by Chris Bergin on 28 Aug, 2006 11:42
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So much for it moving to the left
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#67 by spaceshuttle on 28 Aug, 2006 11:44
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DaveS - 28/8/2006 5:28 AM
Quotegordo - 28/8/2006 12:24 PM
Not today. The earliest they could rollback is noon Tuesday.
yep, I would think Atlantis will be on her way back later today.
well if they would rollback on tues., why can't they just launch tues.?
well, we're screwed nonetheless. so much for 115... -
#68 by Jim on 28 Aug, 2006 12:34
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Effective at 8:00 a.m. today the Center Director and 45 SW Commander have placed CCAFS, KSC and PAFB in HURCON IV. With the path and intensity of the storm, an announcement of HURCON III can be expected later today.
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#69 by rdale on 28 Aug, 2006 12:38
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spaceshuttle - 28/8/2006 7:31 AM
well if they would rollback on tues., why can't they just launch tues.?
well, we're screwed nonetheless. so much for 115...
Read the news thread... 1) Rollback has to start a noon Tues if it's going to happen, launch try is at 3:30pm. There's a disconnect.
2) If the Russians give us the rest of the Sept window, we can launch.
3) If rollback doesn't occur, we'll launch prior to this window closing.
It just seems strange to think it'll remain a Cat1 cane after traveling all the way up the FL peninsula. Don't give up yet. -
#70 by Terry Rocket on 28 Aug, 2006 14:01
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New Scientist say: "Forecasters say Ernesto could still strengthen to hurricane strength before making landfall in Florida – potentially becoming a Category 3 storm with winds raging from 178 to 209 kilometres per hour (111 to 130 miles per hour)."
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#71 by rdale on 28 Aug, 2006 14:10
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I think N.S. is just reposting NHC info. It will not be a Cat3 at KSC.
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#72 by rdale on 28 Aug, 2006 14:40
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Looking at the latest hurricane output, all of the computers have notably lower wind speeds than the NHC forecast, and the trends now show it traveling east of KSC which would bring even weaker winds to the space coast.
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#73 by Rapoc on 28 Aug, 2006 16:35
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Ernesto's way: New update 11 AM EDT
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#74 by Chris Bergin on 28 Aug, 2006 16:51
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Guys. Weather thread. Update thread. Two different threads.
Keep the info respective to each thread, because we'll only delete posts that are not relevant.
Thanks
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#75 by Chris Bergin on 28 Aug, 2006 16:54
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Rapoc - 28/8/2006 5:22 PM
Ernesto's way: New update 11 AM EDT
So it's more brushing Florida, rather than going through. Is that worse for KSC? -
#76 by Jim on 28 Aug, 2006 16:59
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better
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#77 by Rapoc on 28 Aug, 2006 17:01
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Was my info about the new track of Ernesto in the wrong thread?
I'm not a weather expert. But Ernesto moves more and more to the East. Perhaps Ernesto will drift to the Atlantic so a Rollback can prevented. But that's only a supposition. In the next few hours we will know more. It's all about the wind speed ... -
#78 by Chris Bergin on 28 Aug, 2006 17:06
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Rapoc - 28/8/2006 5:48 PM
Was my info about the new track of Ernesto in the wrong thread?
I'm not a weather expert. But Ernesto moves more and more to the East. Perhaps Ernesto will drift to the Atlantic so a Rollback can prevented. But that's only a supposition. In the next few hours we will know more. It's all about the wind speed ...
No, you were ok, I deleted the posts that were in the wrong place
Maybe this thing can keep on moving east?? -
#79 by rdale on 28 Aug, 2006 17:07
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Quote
Chris Bergin - 28/8/2006 12:41 PM
So it's more brushing Florida, rather than going through. Is that worse for KSC?
The strongest winds in a hurricane are in the front-right quadrant, so with KSC on the "downwind" side winds would be notably weaker.
No need to repost straight NHC graphics here - we all get them from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and it just clutters up. Talk about it, but don't inline them...
