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#40
by
rdale
on 27 Aug, 2006 23:49
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"Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ..."
His strenght right now has nothing to do with his strength on Thursday.
"any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?"
Makes no sense - might as well keep weather info here and new updates there.
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#41
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 00:07
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Interesting info from Baron Advanced Meteorological Services (they do some cutting-edge research on forecasting tropical systems in assocation with N. Carolina State Univ)
Assuming that Ernesto survives intact, in the short-term (next 24-hours), it should actually resume a more west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of the Bermuda high, before beginning a possible NW'ly turn in advance of the next mid-latitude trough discussed above. Because of the significant uncertainty in (1) current organization; (2) near-term interaction with the mountains in Haiti; and (3) the longer term mid-latitude/sub-tropical high evolution, it is too early to place high-confidence in the VIPIRcast track forecast at this time.
Suffice it to say that at this point, Ernesto could (1) weaken significantly or even dissipate in the mountains of Hispaniola; (2) affect south or central Florida and recurve along the SE US coast; or even potentially be forced back into the Gulf of Mexico after flirting with South Florida if the mid-latitude trough does not strengthen as much as is currently progged.
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#42
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 00:49
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#43
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 00:55
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#44
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:27
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My 'meteorological' gut says they will call for rollback but not go through with it, which would allow us to hit the Sept7 cutoff.
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#45
by
Avron
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:37
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rdale - 27/8/2006 9:14 PM
My 'meteorological' gut says they will call for rollback but not go through with it, which would allow us to hit the Sept7 cutoff.
Is there any chance that the storm may slow down ?
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#46
by
Mark Dave
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:44
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I hope it does or turns away.
I did hear by noon Tuesday a final call will be made on what to do.
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#47
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:50
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I don't think anything can happen overnight that'll change the outlook dramatically enough.
MarkD - check the news thread or the link to the news conference that just happened. They will decide on a rollback at 7am tomorrow, if they do they have 3 chances up til noon on Tuesday to reverse. The more they shut down, the more work to do on restarting.
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#48
by
Austin
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:52
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Gang we can speculate til the cows come home. The MMT's obviously trying to hold out on a decision as late as possible to see what Ernesto is going to do in the coming hours. Have no doubt though that they are simply not going to risk damage to Atlantis -- there would have to be a dramatic change in the strenght and/or direction of the storm in order to proceed with the count.
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#49
by
Mark Dave
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:57
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I know it's been asked, but when is the best to give another shot at launch? Can they still make a September launch after Expedition 14 arrives?
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#50
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 01:58
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No - check the news thread. This is weather...
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#51
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:00
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More good news!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=485&tstamp=200608Ernesto is has been clobbering Hispanolia all morning with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains. But now, the island has bitten back. Ernesto is struggling to hold his eye together, thanks to the mountainous terrain on the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The 1:10pm and 3pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye reports found a surface pressure estimated at 1007 mb, a big increase from this morning's 995 mb. Moreover, the eye was substantially tilted, with the calm at the surface about 25 miles south of the calm at the 10,000 foot flight level. The plane could find maximum winds of only 35 mph during that 2-hour period, so Ernesto will probably be downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.
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#52
by
Jamie Young
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:19
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That's an old report.
"I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane."
Which it is. So how is that "good news"? Did you watch the press conference?
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#53
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:24
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I dont trust any of the models at the moment so I can just hope this continued disorganization can continue and maybe it drifts away.
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#54
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:26
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Very good news on the latest advisory... NHC has it coming onshore west of Lake Oke Wed at 8pm as a 75kt low-end Cat1. So by the time it reached KSC, the system would have weakened a lot with its overland travels.
Still think they will call for a roll back though. I find it hard to believe anything dramatic will change with the 5am update. Just improves prospects of not going through with the process.
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#55
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:43
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Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?
Im just saying is there a chance to get a single try launch attempt for tuesday? then if we cant get it off we get it the hell back ASAP?
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#56
by
Avron
on 28 Aug, 2006 03:54
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Zachstar - 27/8/2006 11:30 PM
Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?
Im just saying is there a chance to get a single try launch attempt for tuesday? then if we cant get it off we get it the hell back ASAP?
there is no forecast at this time..
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
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#57
by
Avron
on 28 Aug, 2006 04:21
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#58
by
Zachstar
on 28 Aug, 2006 04:25
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#59
by
rdale
on 28 Aug, 2006 05:39
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"Can anyone post the chances of weather disallowing launch for tues-fri?"
There's a hurricane approaching (or at least in the area.) So any forecast past about Tuesday has very low confidence, not worth making right now.
I'm sure most of this week is going to be out already - once they start preps for a rollback things have to be reversed.
- Rob
