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#20
by
spaceshuttle
on 26 Aug, 2006 11:38
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psloss - 26/8/2006 6:23 AM
Latest forecast is in...probability of WX violation on Sunday is now 60%:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
Sunday, the ridge over South Florida will migrate into Central Florida causing southerly flow over the area. A sea breeze will develop again in the late morning, and showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze over KSC beginning near the noon hour. The sea breeze will slowly progress to the west, and by launch time, will be west of KSC. Still, showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils will threaten the area within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility and 10 NM of the launch pad. Our primary concerns for launch is showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils.
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
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#21
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 11:41
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 7:25 AM
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
How do you explain the 121 launch, which was in the afternoon? (Or the other summer afternoon launches, for that matter?)
This is the time of the year that I've been at the Space Coast, and they do have spectacular weather in the afternoons -- but not at the same time or in the same place every day.
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#22
by
spaceshuttle
on 26 Aug, 2006 12:19
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psloss - 26/8/2006 6:28 AM
spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 7:25 AM
i KNOW they're not launching on sunday.
a. it's still summer
b. afternoons=rain/anvil clouds/bad weather in general
just look at 121 and (theoretically) 114, as far as weather goes...
How do you explain the 121 launch, which was in the afternoon? (Or the other summer afternoon launches, for that matter?)
This is the time of the year that I've been at the Space Coast, and they do have spectacular weather in the afternoons -- but not at the same time or in the same place every day.
well, true...but i was actually basing it on how the weather has been for the more recent lauches, but then again--there are coincidences...
but, what i meant for 121 was the scrubs prior to july 4, but you're right, though.
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#23
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 12:35
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spaceshuttle - 26/8/2006 8:06 AM
well, true...but i was actually basing it on how the weather has been for the more recent lauches, but then again--there are coincidences...
but, what i meant for 121 was the scrubs prior to july 4, but you're right, though.
Yeah, but still not enough data to extrapolate with...for example, the first 121 attempt weather was more or less on the edge, while the second attempt weather was solidly bad -- and then the launch window weather the next two days was fairly dry and clear.
While I haven't been down there enough to see the Space Coast weather in all its glory, even as purely a spectator I don't think there have been enough recent shuttle launch attempts (only five in the last three and a half years, and only five summer attempts since 2001) to really do it justice.
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#24
by
rdale
on 26 Aug, 2006 12:40
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"i KNOW they're not launching on sunday. "
As I recall Monday and Tuesday are also part of summer ;> Fortunately there is much more to meteorology that copying what happened two months ago...
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#25
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 12:49
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Here's SMG's latest RTLS forecast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUGUST 26 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2029Z
DATE: 08/27/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT100 SCT250 7 12009P14
TSRA WI 20NM
.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... TS
.
.
.
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#26
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 14:13
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I am going to be keen to see the interaction between the sea breeze and the drier air that is working its way south:
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#27
by
Chris Bergin
on 27 Aug, 2006 15:02
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#28
by
Chris Bergin
on 27 Aug, 2006 20:39
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Now BAM medium have a shape turn to the east.
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#29
by
rdale
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:24
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To do that it must weaken Ernie significantly over Cuba, which is likely given the terrain there. A weak Ernie poses zero threat by the time it crosses FL to get to Kennedy. As a matter of fact, most of those tracks don't give KSC much wind.
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#30
by
Chris Bergin
on 27 Aug, 2006 21:49
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rdale - 27/8/2006 10:11 PM
To do that it must weaken Ernie significantly over Cuba, which is likely given the terrain there. A weak Ernie poses zero threat by the time it crosses FL to get to Kennedy. As a matter of fact, most of those tracks don't give KSC much wind.
Thanks.
So the worse case senario would be where it follows an arc into the Gulf and back over Tampa through Central Florida?
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#31
by
Zachstar
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:11
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#32
by
rdale
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:19
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Correct.
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#33
by
Mark Dave
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:22
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So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
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#34
by
DaveS
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:25
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MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
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#35
by
Mark Dave
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:33
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Tuesday is good for launch then, seriously? If so, great. My day off work, and I can sit and relax watching the launch.
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#36
by
psloss
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:36
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MarkD - 27/8/2006 6:20 PM
Tuesday is good for launch then, seriously? If so, great. My day off work, and I can sit and relax watching the launch.
No, not necessarily -- there's a reasonable chance they're going to have to rollback to the VAB.
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#37
by
gocamels
on 27 Aug, 2006 22:37
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The following from the NHC website that's posted with the graphics sent out with the Advisory Packages is a good read for those not familiar with how OFFICIAL hurricane forecasts (or better word for them "GUESSING", not to dis the work of NHC, but it's not an exact science is it?) work
{IMAGE GOES HERE}
This display shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.
NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the 3 days (solid white area). There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linke
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#38
by
Avron
on 27 Aug, 2006 23:33
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DaveS - 27/8/2006 6:12 PM
MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
I would have wanted them to have Monday still open.. but I guess its too late...
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ...
any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?
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#39
by
Chris Bergin
on 27 Aug, 2006 23:42
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Avron - 28/8/2006 12:20 AM
DaveS - 27/8/2006 6:12 PM
MarkD - 28/8/2006 12:09 AM
So, is launch a go for Monday or not?
A Monday was taken of the tables a long time ago. It's Tuesday now.
I would have wanted them to have Monday still open.. but I guess its too late...
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
Got to like the concept of WEAKENS ...
any change we can merge this thead with the delay thread?
Means nothing, unless KSC was in Cuba.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=485&tstamp=200608
