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#120
by
DaveS
on 29 Aug, 2006 13:49
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rdale - 29/8/2006 3:22 PM
"Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking."
We've all seen how good NHC has done with this one - forecast to have been a Cat 3 hurricane at this point... My bet is the highest wind we see when it moves onshore will be in the 30-40mph range, and KSC will get nothing more than 20-30mph winds. Looks like the bigger risk will be storms this evening when it's being moved.
OK. Just as alittle note: They haven't started the jacking ops yet.
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#121
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 14:59
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Someone is a little worried!
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#122
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 15:02
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11a has 23.3/79.5 but Key West radar seems to clearly show that at 79.8
Either way, "tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles from the center." MUVR is 80 miles from the center reporting a 9mph wind. MUCC 95 miles southeast has a 12mph wind.
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#123
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 15:26
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Sat now shows, I assume a more organized storm... but why are the winds 80 miles out so low?
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#124
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 15:29
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#125
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 15:50
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"I assume a more organized storm"
No, right now it's a big blob of thunderstorms. Not a very good rotation to the system as a whole.
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#126
by
DaveS
on 29 Aug, 2006 16:01
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Just thought I post the real fears behind the decision to rollback Atlantis to the VAB: Flying debris. If something decides to come loose it could hit either SRBs or the more fragile External Tank.
We all saw what the 2004 hurricanes did to the VAB and all the vehicles parked close to it. Imagine a debris just half the size of those side-panels on the VAB hitting the ET. Not a good scenario if you aim to reduce the debirs coming of the ET right?
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#127
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 16:11
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"Imagine a debris just half the size of those side-panels on the VAB hitting the ET."
Not at all a valid comparison. Even using the worse-case scenario, Ernesto won't even be closely the same as the storms that damaged the VAB.
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#128
by
gocamels
on 29 Aug, 2006 16:23
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Something I may have missed/or it got lost in the run up to the rollback: Anyone know if there was a violation of the launch criteria during the windows Sunday or Monday?
IF...YES...IF we hadn't seen the lightning strike, would STS-115 be into Flight Day 2 or 3 right now? Just wondering...
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#129
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 16:42
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Sunday - yes. Monday - no.
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#130
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 17:48
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Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..
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#131
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 18:31
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I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
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#132
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 18:35
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Chris Bergin - 29/8/2006 2:18 PM
I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
Yip, he got it right I think.. based on the overall prediction, worst case, no pad rules would be violated:
initial 29/1500z 23.3n 79.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 24.4n 80.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 26.3n 81.2w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 81.1w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z 30.9n 80.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 36.0n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/1200z 39.5n 79.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 03/1200z 43.0n 80.0w 25 kt...extratropical
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200605.disc.html
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#133
by
Jim
on 29 Aug, 2006 18:47
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Chris Bergin - 29/8/2006 2:18 PM
I think Rob's called this right throughout.
I've been sending some "stay safe" comments on some e-mails to people at KSC and I'm getting "No need, this will only be a bit of a windy storm and some rain. Really nothing to be at all concerned about."
Agree for our homes and ourselves but we aren't uninsured flight hardware
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#134
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 18:55
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Avron - 29/8/2006 1:35 PM
Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..
Marathon is the closest station, about 60 miles from the center (well within the tropical storm force area according to the 2pm report) and instead of the sustained 39mph winds that NHC says are out there -- observation is 20mph.
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#135
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 19:10
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rdale - 29/8/2006 2:42 PM
Avron - 29/8/2006 1:35 PM
Whats the winds speeds off the Keys now..
Marathon is the closest station, about 60 miles from the center (well within the tropical storm force area according to the 2pm report) and instead of the sustained 39mph winds that NHC says are out there -- observation is 20mph.
Ok.. very simple new 'Avron rule of thumb' it will be 50% of that value predicted at KSC.. say 30kts .. hell thats a joke.. and still the move to the VAB...
Eh.. looking at the radar.. it moving west ...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z
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#136
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 19:21
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Really want to keep two seperate threads on news and weather.
DaveS: According to FLA Today, NASA has reassesed the TS Ernesto forecasts and have determined that conditions at KSC is not going to be as bad as initially thought!
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#137
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 20:04
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Computer has 60% + chance of storms Sun-Tuesday, PAFB forecasters however only have 30% chance. I probably won't get a chance to look in detail until late tonight, any guesstimate of the launch times those days? These look like typical afternoon storms, so if it's closer to lunchtime than Sunday's dinnertime we might be fine...
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#138
by
Jim
on 29 Aug, 2006 20:05
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KSC is closing as of 2nd shift tonite
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#139
by
newsartist
on 29 Aug, 2006 21:09
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