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#100
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 01:04
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Given I'm from a country where the weather makes the news when there's a "strong breeze"
I find it impossible to work this one out, so keep the updates coming.
Had a look at a "specialised weather forum" and I've never seen such a varying swing of opinion on this storm.
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#101
by
Zachstar
on 29 Aug, 2006 01:25
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EDIT: Google Earth Tracks
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#102
by
gocamels
on 29 Aug, 2006 01:32
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Once again, all this proves is the lack of accuracy in predicting what tropical systems are going to do without a major weather player to influence them...i.e. a strong southeasterly diving cold front or a locked-in Bermuda High. And this one is going play havoc with tourism dollars along the coasts from Virginia south for the third biggest weekend of the season...and that's on top of the potential collateral damage we could see from rain flooding...not that we don't need it during this dry summer all throughout the southeast.
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#103
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 01:48
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#104
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 01:53
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"Let me just get this correct: You're saying Ernesto is in the process of breaking up?"
I'm saying there is very little convection associated with Ernie. Peak winds reported just 25 miles west of the center were 8mph last hour.
"The tracks are finally cleaning up a horrible job for this stop thats for sure."
I don't understand that sentence at all...
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#105
by
Zachstar
on 29 Aug, 2006 02:19
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Typo I was in a rush posting that.
Note to self: Post slower in the future.
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#106
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:02
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Center just passed north of MUCM (Camaguey Airport in central Cuba) and winds are now maxing out at 5mph out of the south after being northerly at 8pm EDT and calm at 10pm EDT. Very difficult for me to see a way this gains any notable strength at all before (if?) reaching southern FL, and if it's not at least a full Cat1 (probably needs to be a 2) when it comes onshore it won't be any concern at all for KSC.
Sticking with my "no rollback" prediction from yesterday...
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#107
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:04
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Rob
The models keep shifiting east west etc.. Had a quick look at the history of storms within 300 miles of the current location and I note that most go west, with only the 1885 storm going up the east cost of FL.. based on what is happening, with the data in hand.. if the storm heads west it will spend the maximun time over Cuba, and based on the current disorganized nature.. what is the likelyhood (Pct) of the storm breaking up berfore it hits the water again?
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#108
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:14
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rdale - 29/8/2006 4:49 AM
Sticking with my "no rollback" prediction from yesterday...
Meanwhile, engineers keep turning up at the pad as rollback preps finalise for a move in a matter of eight hours time.
Something's gotta give.
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#109
by
Avron
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:25
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Do we have the rollback rules.. like x prop of y wind in z time?
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#110
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:27
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#111
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:52
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And to make things clear - Ernesto is _not_ the impressive looking batch of storms over eastern Cuba. It's the mini-red blob in east-central Cuba.
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#112
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 04:53
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Avron - 29/8/2006 12:12 AM
Do we have the rollback rules.. like x prop of y wind in z time?
Can't have 40kt winds while in transit, it didn't sound like they have specific percentages.
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#113
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 06:05
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#114
by
MKremer
on 29 Aug, 2006 06:27
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Ernesto might look mighty puny coming off the Cuban coast, but it has plenty of good conditions and warm waters to re-intensify before encountering Florida.
KSC might end up 'dodging the bullet', but we have to remember that in the time frames needed for decision-making and execution, the folks at NASA really didn't have much of a choice about doing their best to protect the Shuttle hardware.
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#115
by
Chris Bergin
on 29 Aug, 2006 09:13
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They're taking another internal look at the projections:
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#116
by
Rapoc
on 29 Aug, 2006 09:17
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#117
by
DaveS
on 29 Aug, 2006 10:56
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FLA Today has the wind numbers from the briefing that the launch managers were given. By the time TS Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking. Rules calls for the shuttle to be roll backed if wind speeds are forecast to reach 79 mph, so it will be a close call.
Forecasters are however cautioning that Ernesto could become slightly more powerful once it enters warm Florida waters:
http://www.floridatoday.com/floridatoday/blogs/spaceteam/2006/08/ernesto-forecast-better-but-still.html
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#118
by
jacqmans
on 29 Aug, 2006 11:31
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#119
by
rdale
on 29 Aug, 2006 13:35
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"Ernesto reaches KSC it is forecast to to have wind speeds with 57 mph sustained and gusts up to 69 mph and it is weaking."
We've all seen how good NHC has done with this one - forecast to have been a Cat 3 hurricane at this point... My bet is the highest wind we see when it moves onshore will be in the 30-40mph range, and KSC will get nothing more than 20-30mph winds. Looks like the bigger risk will be storms this evening when it's being moved.
I find it impossible to work this one out, so keep the updates coming.