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Weather Forecast
by
rdale
on 21 Aug, 2006 18:12
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Long range but looking pretty good for now from the NWS Spaceflight Group side... They don't have a chance of rain at launch, but do 90 minutes later (not sure I get that.)
However the USAF forecast isn't nearly the same - calls for Mostly Cloudy skies, 40% chance of rain Sunday afternoon, 30% probability of lightning. The local NWS office also has that in their outlook too...
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
1200 PM CDT MONDAY AUGUST 21 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 2029Z
DATE: 08/27/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT035 SCT120 SCT250 7 14010P15
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW050 7 30010P15
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 20005P07
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SKC 7 35015P25
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT035 SCT120 SCT250 7 14010P15
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 08/28/06 01Z TO 08/28/06 02Z
EDW SKC 7 22013P20
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
NOR ... TS
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 26/1200
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
GARNER/BAGGETT/ORAM
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#1
by
Martin FL
on 21 Aug, 2006 19:39
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Interesting report. Here's for clear skys.
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#2
by
shuttlefan
on 21 Aug, 2006 20:27
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It's Florida on a late afternoon in late-August. The weather will be a real-time call, as many of you know...
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#3
by
Avron
on 21 Aug, 2006 20:32
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If its anything like ours.. give it 15 mins and it will change...
Seems a little early for this level of detail
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#4
by
rdale
on 21 Aug, 2006 20:35
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#5
by
Austin
on 24 Aug, 2006 00:25
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shuttlefan - 21/8/2006 1:14 PM
It's Florida on a late afternoon in late-August. The weather will be a real-time call, as many of you know...
No doubt. I used to live in Central Florida and can vouch for the common afternoon T-storms in the summer (which seem to come out of nowhere).
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#6
by
DaveS
on 24 Aug, 2006 12:16
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#7
by
psloss
on 24 Aug, 2006 13:09
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DaveS - 24/8/2006 8:03 AM
The first official launch weather forecast is now available: https://www.patrick.af.mil/45og/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdf
The main concerns are anvil clouds from offshore T-storms and showers with 20 NM of the SLF. Probability of weather violations: 30%.
Hmm...we'll have to wait and see what they get on Sunday afternoon, but that's a pretty optimistic forecast -- slightly less chance on Monday and Tuesday, too.
Maybe we'll get some details at the status briefing coming up.
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#8
by
rdale
on 24 Aug, 2006 14:31
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Looks like a large area of high pressure over the NE US will extend its influence all the way down to the Gulf States so no big cold fronts (that would wipe out opportunities) will be a factor, just afternoon pop-up storms...
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#9
by
Avron
on 24 Aug, 2006 19:45
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Any Ideas on the rate of pop-up Tshowers as the year progresses what impact larger systems have on that rate?
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#10
by
rdale
on 24 Aug, 2006 21:03
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Not sure I understand your question...
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#11
by
Avron
on 25 Aug, 2006 04:44
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rdale - 24/8/2006 4:50 PM
Not sure I understand your question...
Was wondering how the rate of Tshowers "poping_up" reduced (% of say mid summer) as the year moves towards winter etc.. and what the impact of larger weather systems had on the popup rate?
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#12
by
psloss
on 25 Aug, 2006 11:52
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The latest forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron is out:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdfProbability of KSC weather prohibiting launch is now 40% for launch time on Sunday.
Also, a trough of low pressure over Central Florida could enhance offshore showers and
thunderstorms, and upper-level winds from the east may cause anvils from thunderstorms offshore over the Gulf
Stream to advect west toward the coast. Our primary concerns for launch are anvil clouds from
thunderstorms offshore and showers and thunderstorms within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF).
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#13
by
rdale
on 25 Aug, 2006 13:56
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There are fewer random storms in the winter than summer, but a cold front coming through is a good generator of storms.
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#14
by
Scotty
on 26 Aug, 2006 02:37
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We have had heavy rain at the space center every afternoon for the last four days in a row.
It is forcast to do the same Saturday.
There might be a one day break in the pattern Sunday, as a patch of dryer air moves over Northern Florida.
Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be just like it has been for the last few days.
So it appears Sunday is the best shot at decent weather, but I would call it 50 - 50 at best.
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#15
by
rdale
on 26 Aug, 2006 03:02
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Actually Mon/Tue look much better than Sunday as the high sets in... I don't see any dry air moving in on Sunday?
Latest data looks even worse for Sunday, that's now in range of our short-term (and more detailed) computer output and it's got plenty of storms. But looking into next week I see much less precip on Monday (they have to break on Tuesday right?)
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#16
by
rdale
on 26 Aug, 2006 05:41
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Newest computer still looks bad for Sunday, pretty good for Monday.
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#17
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 10:48
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rdale - 26/8/2006 1:28 AM
Newest computer still looks bad for Sunday, pretty good for Monday.
Thanks, Rob...I thought I heard something in the description of the Sunday forecast at last evening's pre-launch briefing that sounded less optimistic. We should get an official update from the 45th in a little bit...
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#18
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 11:08
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rdale - 25/8/2006 10:49 PM
But looking into next week I see much less precip on Monday (they have to break on Tuesday right?)
They could try for three in a row, but if no launch the standdown would be a minimum of 96 hours. (I believe it was said that the 'break' in the four in five days plan allows for the cyro spheres for the ET load to be modestly resupplied.)
Depending on the weather forecasts for mid/late week, Tuesday might be an option...but here's hoping that Monday is equally good.
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#19
by
psloss
on 26 Aug, 2006 11:36
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Latest forecast is in...probability of WX violation on Sunday is now 60%:
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/shuttle.pdfSunday, the ridge over South Florida will migrate into Central Florida causing southerly flow over the area. A sea breeze will develop again in the late morning, and showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze over KSC beginning near the noon hour. The sea breeze will slowly progress to the west, and by launch time, will be west of KSC. Still, showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils will threaten the area within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility and 10 NM of the launch pad. Our primary concerns for launch is showers and thunderstorms with associated anvils.
