NASA CRS2 Contract Award Announcement - Jan 14, 2016

[ChrisWilson68]

My preference is:

SNC Dreamchaser Cargo Large Award
LM Exoliner Medium Award
OATK Medium Award

I would prefer these awards are used to stimulate development and competition vs strictly being about the lowest cost/redundancy.

But that has the opposite effect of what you intent it to, long term.

You're essentially saying that SpaceX has the best solution but you're going to cut them out of this contract to give money to other entrants.  That will have a very chilling message for competition.  It says that companies shouldn't invest more of their own money to make a better solution.  It says that they should invest the minimum possible to get the minimum possible solution that meets the requirements and they'll get an equal share of the money.

The way to maximize competition is the simplest: buy exactly the solutions that best meet your needs.  Don't explicitly try to manage competition.  Then everyone will  have the proper incentives.

[Hauerg]

My preference is:

SNC Dreamchaser Cargo Large Award
LM Exoliner Medium Award
OATK Medium Award

I would prefer these awards are used to stimulate development and competition vs strictly being about the lowest cost/redundancy.

If you were working for NASA on this, you should be fired. Yesterday.   

[AncientU]

My heart says SpaceX and SNC, but I suppose it'll be SpaceX and Orbital.  (Unless Boeing sneaks in again!   Just kidding!)  I'd love to see wings again, and DC is such a beauty.

Won't be Boeing, because it's LM's 'turn' 

Seriously, it would be very upsetting if the majority of the funds were sent to a high-price bidder (again).

[yg1968]

My preference is:

SNC Dreamchaser Cargo Large Award
LM Exoliner Medium Award
OATK Medium Award

I would prefer these awards are used to stimulate development and competition vs strictly being about the lowest cost/redundancy.

If you were working for NASA on this, you should be fired. Yesterday.   

I disagree. If it was only about costs, NASA would only choose one CRS provider (the lowest bidder) which hasn't been the case.

[Rocket Science]

Wow, two major "popcorn events" in the same week. SLS "all hands" and now this... Still time to run-out to the store and stock up!

[clongton]

Seriously, it would be very upsetting if the majority of the funds were sent to a high-price bidder (again).

Each winner will get whatever they bid, without regard as to low price or high price.
I believe SpaceX will be low bidder and therefore will get the least amount of money.

[yg1968]

Reading tea leaves. But Garett Reisman of SpaceX tweeted about an hour ago about the 4 pm CRS2 NASA annoucement. I don't think that he would have tweeted that if SpaceX had lost.

Silence on the Twitter feed of SNCspacesystems.  Does that provide a hint?

No. Orbital/ATK hasn't tweeted anything either. So no leaves to read on that one. 

[AncientU]

Wow, two major "popcorn events" in the same week. SLS "all hands" and now this... Still time to run-out to the store and stock up!

Three, including Eutelsat's decision which will upset the European community:
http://spacenews.com/with-eutelsat-win-spacex-has-business-with-all-5-top-satellite-fleet-owners/

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Each winner will get whatever they bid, without regard as to low price or high price.
I believe SpaceX will be low bidder and therefore will get the least amount of money.

Per flight yes. But if they get more flights (as in CRS1) it might still be the most money.

[AncientU]

Each winner will get whatever they bid, without regard as to low price or high price.
I believe SpaceX will be low bidder and therefore will get the least amount of money.

Per flight yes. But if they get more flights (as in CRS1) it might still be the most money.

I'm fine with a similar break-out as CRS-1. (taxpayer-wise, it was a great deal)

[mn]

Reading tea leaves. But Garett Reisman of SpaceX tweeted about an hour ago about the 4 pm CRS2 NASA annoucement. I don't think that he would have tweeted that if SpaceX had lost.

Is it a fact that the winners (and losers) know in advance of the announcement? or are we just assuming here?

[yg1968]

Reading tea leaves. But Garett Reisman of SpaceX tweeted about an hour ago about the 4 pm CRS2 NASA annoucement. I don't think that he would have tweeted that if SpaceX had lost.

Is it a fact that the winners (and losers) know in advance of the announcement? or are we just assuming here?

They usually find out a few hours before everybody else. The day of the announcement or the day before.

[nadreck]

Hmm, I wonder if anyone's bid included a bid for contingency or expedited scheduling, that is, a price to add in a new mission at short notice to cover a failure like any of the 3 we saw in the not so distant past.

[gongora]

Hmm, I wonder if anyone's bid included a bid for contingency or expedited scheduling, that is, a price to add in a new mission at short notice to cover a failure like any of the 3 we saw in the not so distant past.

Isn't that what this part of the RFP is talking about?

2.6   LAUNCH ON NEED (LON)
A Launch On Need (LON) capability should be provided in the event there is an interruption in the provision of cargo services from any of the providers through the life of the contract.
The Contractor should meet the following technical capabilities to satisfy LON:
(a)   Able to be called up after the Contractor’s initial CRS2 flight,
(b)   Able to launch within two months after launch of a planned CRS2 mission,
(c)   Accommodate up to the full complement of pressurized cargo that had been planned for the next mission, as applicable to the standard mission, , including standard powered payloads and standard late load for launch and return,
(d)   The next planned launch following a LON can be as early as 2 months from completion of the LON mission,
(e)   In any 12 month period, accommodate one (1) LON mission in addition to the planned flight rate.   

[freakdog]

Wall Street journal reporting at least Dream Chaser has won.

[BrightLight]

here is the URL to the wall street journal article - posted 2:38pm eastern time!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nasa-set-to-pick-sierra-nevada-corp-for-share-of-space-station-contracts-1452800317

[Rocket Science]

Wall Street journal reporting at least Dream Chaser has won.

Fool me once...

[BrightLight]

The Wall Street Journal says they have an informed source - "a person familiar with the details", we will find out in about an hour how good that source is!

[yg1968]

Wall Street journal reporting at least Dream Chaser has won.

Fool me once...

Rumors this close to the awards tend to be true. The companies know at this point. It becomes hard to contain the information.

[NovaSilisko]

Didn't we get similar supposedly-well-informed reports that Boeing had lost out on Commercial Crew? I'm waiting for the official announcement.

Someone "familiar with the details" could mean someone who knows what they're talking about, but who is still just looking at their own crystal ball.

We'll find out.