Author Topic: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles  (Read 210382 times)

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4483
  • Liked: 2424
  • Likes Given: 1363
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #300 on: 05/04/2016 11:43 PM »
The price will definitely go down if used stages are nearly as reliable as new ones, just because available launches will increase. Assuming, of course, that there is a market for lower cost launches and that they still would turn a profit for the launch provider... Which are both true IMO.

Offline Kabloona

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4309
  • Velocitas Eradico
  • Fortress of Solitude
  • Liked: 2535
  • Likes Given: 525
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #301 on: 05/24/2016 11:40 PM »
Tweet from parabolicarc at the SpaceTechExpo:

Quote
Parabolicarc.com
‏@spacecom
Hoffman: second booster is being refurbished, hope to relaunch it later this year.

I would assume that's the second "recovered" booster, which would be CRS-8.

And this tweet:

Quote
Edward Ellegood
‏@FLSPACErePORT
SpaceX at #SpaceCongress2016: Initial reuse of Falcon-9 limited to components: engines, landing legs, paddles, etc. Not entire booster

Putting those two together, sounds like "initial" re-use of recovered components from a different stage (OG-2?) will happen before the "second" (CRS-8?) booster is reflown.

Meanwhile, delta qual at McGregor for the JCSAT-14 booster...
« Last Edit: 05/24/2016 11:45 PM by Kabloona »

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1071
  • Arsia Mons, Mars, Sol IV, Inner Solar Solar System, Sol system.
  • Liked: 757
  • Likes Given: 627
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #302 on: 05/25/2016 12:01 AM »
"Initial" - they may have already reused the fins for all we know.


The initial reuse phase won't be a particularly long one. They'll be re-flying scantily refurbished cores before this year is out - I'd go as far as claiming before this summer is out - using the northern hemisphere for reference, gents - they will have reflown - and recovered, their first reused core.
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Offline tleski

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 378
  • Washington, DC
  • Liked: 266
  • Likes Given: 353
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #303 on: 05/25/2016 02:09 AM »
Edward Ellegood tweeted a correction to this:

FLSPACErePORT: Correction on Falcon-9 reusable components: entire stage would be reused, not individual components. Eventually the complete system would.

https://twitter.com/flspacereport/status/735253613266640897

People on SpaceX subreddit discussed that extensively and the consensus was that he must have misheard the following statement: “Today it’s the stage; in the future we want a complete system that is rapidly and completely reusable.”

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4kvf4d/edward_ellegood_on_twitter_spacex_at/


Online Navier–Stokes

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 231
  • Liked: 220
  • Likes Given: 1832
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #304 on: 05/31/2016 03:57 AM »
Space News' Peter B de Selding (@pbdes):
Quote
SpaceX: We'll be meeting w/ insurance underwriters in coming weeks to walk them through our reusable-stage certification process.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208?s=09

Online docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4919
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 2029
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #305 on: 05/31/2016 07:25 AM »
A recert process the insurers will sign off on would be huge, and another @pbdes tweet said they have 2 customers in the queue.
DM

Offline john smith 19

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7543
  • Everyplaceelse
  • Liked: 1152
  • Likes Given: 7714
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #306 on: 05/31/2016 09:50 AM »
The price will definitely go down if used stages are nearly as reliable as new ones,
logically they should be more reliable as we know now all the the parts have been through the launch cycle.
Quote
Assuming, of course, that there is a market for lower cost launches and that they still would turn a profit for the launch provider... Which are both true IMO.
The question has always been is there enough market increase for the amount that the supplier is planning to reduce their prices by? :(

Given this is still a semi reusable system with one stage thrown away we don't know if the systems costs can be be cut to a level that the prices SX want to charge will give them the market growth they need to make this work out.
Space News' Peter B de Selding (@pbdes):
Quote
SpaceX: We'll be meeting w/ insurance underwriters in coming weeks to walk them through our reusable-stage certification process.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208?s=09
This is huge if SX are far enough into their development that they can show improved reliability and that commercial launches will have lower insurance costs on an F9SR.
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline Kaputnik

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2831
  • Liked: 474
  • Likes Given: 443
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #307 on: 05/31/2016 09:58 AM »
They don't need to show lower risk on reused boosters, just quantifiable and therefore insurable risk.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline gospacex

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3028
  • Liked: 537
  • Likes Given: 604
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #308 on: 05/31/2016 10:32 AM »
The question has always been is there enough market increase for the amount that the supplier is planning to reduce their prices by? :(

Given this is still a semi reusable system with one stage thrown away we don't know if the systems costs can be be cut to a level that the prices SX want to charge will give them the market growth they need to make this work out.

Current SpaceX prices have undercut EVERYONE (including even Proton).
This means that theoretically SpaceX is in position to take almost entire commercial launch for themselves. Satisfying that would require about two launches per week.
As of now, SpaceX is capable of performing about one launch per month.

IOW: SpaceX already can grow about eightfold without further cost reductions, and without needing market to grow.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2016 10:42 AM by gospacex »

Offline catdlr

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5443
  • Viewed launches since the Redstones
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 2078
  • Likes Given: 1407
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #309 on: 06/02/2016 01:18 AM »
The Fate of Four Landed Falcon 9's - Space Pod 6/1/16

TMRO

Published on Jun 1, 2016
This week, SpaceMike asks, now that SpaceX has four landed Falcon 9 first stages, what are they going to do with them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTi9xWQ6W6k?t=001

Tony De La Rosa

Offline saliva_sweet

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 555
  • Liked: 424
  • Likes Given: 1345
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #310 on: 06/02/2016 09:24 AM »
Even if the stages are damaged beyond repair the engines might still be possible to reuse?

Yes, but do they need more than they already have? And more are coming soon. There seems to be a better than even chance they'll get a good core from LEO RTLS as soon as july.

Offline eweilow

Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #311 on: 06/02/2016 10:17 AM »
Even if the stages are damaged beyond repair the engines might still be possible to reuse?

Yes, but do they need more than they already have? And more are coming soon. There seems to be a better than even chance they'll get a good core from LEO RTLS as soon as july.
If there's any chance of a lesson being learned that is what I expect them to desire. If the mission allows for a landing then there's really not a big risk of doing so (other than punching another hole in the droneship)

Offline Hankelow8

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 164
  • UK
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #312 on: 06/02/2016 10:29 AM »
It takes time and money to build up a production rate, including more staff.
Some time soon they will have to start making decisions on the impact of returning Falcon 9 1st stages, even more so when Falcon heavy starts launching. An interesting dilemma that's never happened before in rocket manufacturing.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2016 10:32 AM by Hankelow8 »

Online kevinof

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 620
  • Antibes
  • Liked: 392
  • Likes Given: 464
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #313 on: 06/02/2016 11:00 AM »
They will never have enough.  Let's say they don't relaunch ANY of these stages, but instead re-use just the engines. At $2M per engine that's not only a saving in cost but also in time to manufacture. Yes they will incur some costs to re-test the engines but nowhere near the cost of a complete replacement.

Seems to me that every stage recovery is not only a chance to see how your engineering is, but also to reduce your costs in terms of your stock of "flight proven" hardware.


Even if the stages are damaged beyond repair the engines might still be possible to reuse?

Yes, but do they need more than they already have? And more are coming soon. There seems to be a better than even chance they'll get a good core from LEO RTLS as soon as july.

Offline Hankelow8

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 164
  • UK
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #314 on: 06/02/2016 11:09 AM »
SpaceX is a business, that means they aim to make as big a profit as they can. (this also helps to fund future R&D costs) not reevaluating your production rate if you are recovering good condition reusable stages, does not make good business sense.

Offline baldusi

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7437
  • Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Liked: 1445
  • Likes Given: 4499
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #315 on: 06/02/2016 11:35 AM »
What's more, they are probably testing the recovery envelope. This includes all the phases of return. An ASDS landing has at least two burns, with may be three. In each burn you can have different strategies, angles, times and even number of engines.
And then a failure or success is not really statistically relevant. So you also have to learn how reliable and repeatable is each specific trajectory.
And then they are adding mods on top of that to improve reliability and reusability. Which you have to test again.
So they will keep doing this returns basically for all launches. Last I heard, is that going expendable required the written permission of Elon himself.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1373
  • Boston, MA
  • Liked: 1593
  • Likes Given: 222
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #316 on: 06/02/2016 11:46 AM »

...They're already piling up and starting to look ridiculous...

LOL - oh boy, how quickly we become jaded! Now SpaceX is beginning to look ridiculous for being successful at landing first stages. I could have sworn it wasn't five months ago we were gathered around here with strong claims that landing was impossible, then a few months later that barge landings were perhaps impossible, then later on that repeated landings were doubtful, then after that it was that high energy landings were _clearly_ impossible.

Now we have come full circle and need to say SpaceX is ridiculous for having so many stages and probably the best thing is to start throwing them away...

(Not a diss on you Saliva_sweet, just an observation on how quickly us humans can take things for granted)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline saliva_sweet

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 555
  • Liked: 424
  • Likes Given: 1345
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #317 on: 06/02/2016 12:18 PM »
Jaded or not it doesn't matter what people thought a year ago. The current reality is that four F9 1.2 cores have been recovered out of the five that have flown. Last I heard was they planned to fly 18 times this year. Even if they don't reach that, many more cores are coming. First reflight is hopefully, fingers crossed by the end of this year. The current practice of stuffing them into 39A HIF is not sustainable. If they have 14 cores by the end of the year it will be a problem and will look ridiculous. SpaceX knows that. Even if you're a dog that caught a bus, if you realize it's going to problem station you'd do well to get off it.

Online kevinof

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 620
  • Antibes
  • Liked: 392
  • Likes Given: 464
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #318 on: 06/02/2016 12:23 PM »
This discussion should really be taken over to the re-use thread.

PS: Why store them at the HIF? - They have an empty truck/transporter going back to CA every couple of weeks. Just collect a recovered one and bring it back with you.

Jaded or not it doesn't matter what people thought a year ago. The current reality is that four F9 1.2 cores have been recovered out of the five that have flown. Last I heard was they planned to fly 18 times this year. Even if they don't reach that, many more cores are coming. First reflight is hopefully, fingers crossed by the end of this year. The current practice of stuffing them into 39A HIF is not sustainable. If they have 14 cores by the end of the year it will be a problem and will look ridiculous. SpaceX knows that. Even if you're a dog that caught a bus, if you realize it's going to problem station you'd do well to get off it.

Offline vulture4

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1001
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 90
Re: Refurbishment of Used Stages/Vehicles
« Reply #319 on: 06/02/2016 01:18 PM »
Depending on the degree of damage refurbishment might be possible at KSC but an additional facility would be needed. SpaceX built the HIF in just a few months and has quite a bit of space at CX-39 so they have the option. Stages needing extensive rework might have to be sent back to the factory, that would add some cost but is certainly less expensive than the special trains that are needed for the SRB segments for the Shuttle and now SLS.

Tags: