Another way to eliminate air around the frustum, besides a vacuum, is to fill the space with expanding plastic foam. Put frustrum in a 30cm cubic box. Attach wires. Blow expanding plastic foam like used for insulation into the box. Allow to harden. Scrape off excess. Attach lid. Place on scale apparatus. Apply power. Repeat in all possible orientations.
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2) The experimental results of Prof. Yang showed strong nonlinearity between the measured force and the input power (see attached chart). Prof. Yang's experiments show diminishing returns (actually slight decrease in measured forces for input power exceeding 300 Watts and general flat response) for increasing input power.
Hence it does not follow that the thermal artifacts will scale linearly in experiments conducted at much higher input power. On the contrary, Prof. Yang's experimental results show strong nonlinearity, with the touted "EM Drive" force dependence on input power effectively dissappearing after about 300 watts, the dependence looks practically flat at input powers greater than 300 W. The nonlinearity of the "force" vs. input power experimental relation of Prof. Yang has not yet been scientifically modeled hence its nature can only be speculated until a verifiable model is demonstrated.
This shows that if anything, experiments conducted at ambient conditions with low power may be highly misleading and NOT linearly scalable to higher powers, just as it would be highly misleading to conflate the flight of an insect with the flight of an airplane (the aerodynamics are completely different at very low Reynolds numbers).(The range of Reynolds number in insect flight is about 10 to 10^4, which lies in between the two limits that are convenient for theories that try to simplify the nonlinearity of Navier Stokes fluid dynamics: inviscid steady flows around an airplane's airfoil and Stokes flow experienced by a swimming bacterium. For this reason, this intermediate Reynolds number range used by insects in their flight is not as well understood as the high Reynolds number regime for airplanes. )A few weeks ago, I used those Yang plots to determine the efficiency of her EMdrive while the input power increased.
What I did is to bring all generated forces back to 1kW of power to get an idea how her frustum performed while she gradually increased the power...
It didn't show a straight linear relation, but a steep decline in efficiency at first, then leveled out for a long period and at the end showed improvement again, which might hint that a drastic increase in power "might" yield better then expected results.
I find it puzzling to why it stayed almost completely level from around 800W up to 2200W...
The performance degrading from 300W to 700W is probably due to thermal effects?

...A statistical analysis is unconvincing (and therefore not straightforward) for your tests because the sample population in your tests is way too small to arrive at a conclusion that your sample population is representative of the true statistical population, nor is the sample population large enough to determine what is the appropriate statistical distribution for a parametric test.I left that determination up to a professional statistician. I did not get that pronouncement from them.
We have a disagreement here. I have no problem with that. ...
I have not seen a statistical argument in these threads disagreeing with the fact that the sample population in your tests is way too small (to arrive at a conclusion that your sample population is representative of the true statistical population). Therefore I have not seen a justification that you can use only statistical tests to arrive at a robust statistical conclusion based on your test results.
PS: I am a member of the American Statistical Association, and use statistical models (as well as information theory) to make a living.

...A statistical analysis is unconvincing (and therefore not straightforward) for your tests because the sample population in your tests is way too small to arrive at a conclusion that your sample population is representative of the true statistical population, nor is the sample population large enough to determine what is the appropriate statistical distribution for a parametric test.I left that determination up to a professional statistician. I did not get that pronouncement from them.
We have a disagreement here. I have no problem with that. ...
I have not seen a statistical argument in these threads disagreeing with the fact that the sample population in your tests is way too small (to arrive at a conclusion that your sample population is representative of the true statistical population). Therefore I have not seen a justification that you can use only statistical tests to arrive at a robust statistical conclusion based on your test results.
PS: I am a member of the American Statistical Association, and use statistical models (as well as information theory) to make a living.
Dr. Rodal,
On the statistical analysis, I'm the target, not RFMWGUY. Any faults in that analysis are mine, not his.
1st. I agree on the sample size issues. My first request after that run were replication runs to characterize things more fully. Unfortunately he had disassembled his setup at that point and was unable to comply.
2nd. The data collection was not designed with a statistical analysis in mind. It required "post-hoc" data mining to pull about 40 mag on / mag off sample sub-sets out of a single run. The data resolution only permitted between 10 and 15 data points per on or off cycle, which in itself is a small sample. Ideally, the data would have been sampled at a much higher rate permitting higher resolution, but it was what it was.
3rd. The analysis that indicated anomalous behavior was based on a suggestion that there would be a difference in the mag-on behavior vs the mag-off behavior, specifically, that the mag on behavior would change during the mag-on cycle. That was not an a-prior assumption. Given that suggestion, it was possible to establish that for this one run, of about 40 cycles, of 10-15 data points per cycle, that the slope behavior for mag-on was statistically significantly different than the mag-off behavior, for the 40 odd sub-sets of that single run. That analysis with raw data was provided in this forum and is referenced in RFMWGUYs report. The algorithms that extracted the data for analysis are included in those uploads and include live VBA code if anyone wants to replicate/critique.
4th. The analysis could not confirm or deny any hypothesis beyond the slope behavior was different given these constraints. As to the cause, the magnitude, the why, post-hoc analysis with a post-hoc experimental design as we both know is the worst possible world. However, the data is indicative of some kind of signal in the noise, which is different from no signal in the noise.
5th. If you review my commentaries in this forum on methods, sampling, experimental design, etc. you see that I'm a fellow traveler on getting this right and up front.
IMHO, RFMWGUY's data shows a signal of some kind in that one run of 40 odd sub-samples. I don't know what that means, and even if it's statistically significant for that one run, which it is, I am in no position to state if it was thrust, delayed thermals, or unicorn dust.
IMHO, the next round of tests requires multiple runs under multiple criteria pre-defined carefully before the power is turned on. I'd be pleased to exchange methodology suggestions with you and if you have specific critiques of the actual data reduction techniques and analysis, I'd love the debate. At that time, the only statistical feedback I got in the forum was "so you have statistically proven that the EMDrive produces thrust?" That was most unhelpful feedback.
Finally, the ideal model would state something like "when I turn the power on I will see x micro-newtons of thrust" and you design the experiment to see if you get x or something else. In this case, since there is no accepted theory, and hence no means of calculating x in advance, the first question to me is simply, can you find x > 0. From my point of view, that pushes the DIY testing into the domain of statistical analysis, and if x is greater than 0, statistically, then maybe we can come up with something that says x = f(stuff). From an engineering and physics point of view, stuff is a lot of possible things that hopefully the DIY folks can gradually reduce from known items like thermals, airflow, Lorenz, etc., until there is either no residual to account for, or there is.
Well, what I take out of it is that in order to get a better, clear signal out of the (thermal) noise zone, you either should go for a 200-300W input power or further increase beyond 2500W...
As power is directly related to the thermal effects( buoyancy, material deformation, etc) the ratio of produced force/power needs to be as big as possible to get the best results with the least negative effects.
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1. I thought I heard RFMWGUY a few posts back saying indirectly he might give up without perfect isolation of thermal effects. Don't!
Hey, why not try my design. I think it is easier to understand.
Here it is:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38996.0

After refreshing my knowledge about angular momentum and gyroscope behavior and combining that with a detailed study of pictures of Shawyer's "EMdrive on a rotating table", I'm inclined to say that zen-in was (partially) right...
Although I differ from opinion with him that it is not_so_much the sloshing of the water,because much of the directions cancel each other out (tubing in all directions) but the angular momentum of pump motor that is at cause.
I'm kinda perplexed that for an engineer, Shawyer did not think about that.
The more that the problem could have been easily solved simply by re-aligning the pump 90° and let the plane cross the axis of the air-bearing. I'll add some pictures later on.
U-toob was here
It is not hard to see the very same setup on the EMdrive test rig, except, instead of hanging it on a rope, it floats on an air-bearing spindle, but the rotation of the pump is in exact the same position as the wheel in the video.. and will consequently most likely also make the table turn.
Bottom line is that the credibility of that test entirely depends on the rotation direction of that pump...sad and somewhat disappointing...but true...
I'd say there is a very high probability (50%, depending on the direction the pump motor turns) that the table turns, not due to an EMdrive effect, but simply because of a gyroscopic effect...
not to say...but my confidence in this type of EMtest has been seriously dented. If anything should be replicated it will first, and before anything else, need to solve the torque issue.
added:
From the video Shawyer posted it is impossible to see when the pump was activated. Was the pump already running BEFORE the magnetron was turned on? If not, if it was turned on at the same moment the magnetron was turned on, what direction does it spin?
Does the rig still exists and is it possible to do just a dry run with only the pump running?
Those are legitimate questions that only Shawyer can answer.
If he wants to keep his credibility i think it would be in his best interest to answer these. This is not bullying or hand waving... just some credible engineering questions...
Maybe TT could slip these questions through to him and hope for an answer?
Unless someone demonstrates or points out a potential error source that approaches a triple-digit micronewton level, I will not chase those phantoms. Lorentz force in the horizontal axis falls into this category as does thermal plume turbulence (fluid analysis), imho. Show me a non-jet down force test result or example and I may take that off of my phantom list. There were no jets identified on the top plate emanating from the mag per my thermal scans, nor was there uneven heating of any of the outer surfaces; a clear sign of air jets.
So, statistics are most straight-forward way to analyze beam displacement variances between mag on and mag off cycles. No other error source hypothesis approaches the force level needed to interrupt the thermal lift track; Lorentz, air jets, plume turbulence, thermal expansion, etc., etc.
If anyone has other ideas...I'm all ears and will test for them if funding allows next year.
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Doc, while it was not consistent each time, its easy to see from the video of the mag spectrum that its own rf stability is more likely the cause rather than a transient thermal natural convection effect, which I am trying to understand what you mean here.
Remember, the displacement was downward (against lift), not upwards during mag-on at a higher occurance over the 2000 or so data points. Your suggestion seems to imply vertical (upward) jetting which I cannot visualize in my test. The rising plume of thermals should (if I understand basic fluid dynamics) impose an upwards lift, not a downward force.
Is there something you can point me to help me understand an opposite effect of what I am thinking? i.e. a rising, thermal plume causing a downwards force?