Russia tests Nudol ASAT system

[jpo234]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the successful testing of the anti-satellite system by Russia . According to him, “it struck the old satellite with jewelry,” and its debris does not threaten space activities.

What are we to make of the bolded statement?

Probably something like "it brilliantly struck the old satellite".

[B. Hendrickx]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed the successful testing of the anti-satellite system by Russia . According to him, “it struck the old satellite with jewelry,” and its debris does not threaten space activities.

What are we to make of the bolded statement?

What Shoigu meant to say was that it struck the satellite with the precision of a jeweler.

Among the people who are probably elated with the results of the test are the specialists of KB Tochmash (the "Nudelman design bureau") and the State Institute of Applied Optics (GIPO) who developed the so-called "multispectral electro-optical homing head" (MOEGSN or 14Sh129) that guided Nudol to its target. A very similar or identical optical system is also supposed to be flown on the more capable Aerostat missile, so the Nudol test also was a successfully technology demonstration for that project.

[SciNews]

11 tweet thread when you have to move out of the way of a Starlink satellite, but silence when Russia intentionally creates thousands of pieces of new debris?
twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1460709441435684864

Statement by Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for Space, following the Russian test of an anti-satellite weapon

At this time, none of the Galileo or Copernicus satellites have been impacted. However, close monitoring of the situation is necessary to track the potential impact on the 240 European satellites covered by EU SST. 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2019-2024/breton/announcements/statement-thierry-breton-european-commissioner-space-following-russian-test-anti-satellite-weapon_en

[Rondaz]

Stealing 2 interesting plots to tell a story. The 1st is a Gabbard plot from @SpaceNav2 showing the orbital spread of debris from the ASAT test. Risk to most of LEO is now increased. The 2nd is from @ProfHughLewis showing how long the debris stays in orbit.

https://twitter.com/mikeclindsay/status/1460809637079355399

[Vahe231991]

Is it possible that Russia chose to destroy the Cosmos 1408 because it was concerned about any derelict Soviet spy satellite colliding with active American and European communications and weather satellites, like what happened in February 2009 when the Cosmos 2251 collided with the Iridium 33? The Space-Track website lists the Cosmos 1437 radio surveillance satellite as scheduled to re-enter the atmosphere next month.

[Bob Niland]

Is it possible that Russia chose to destroy the Cosmos 1408 because it was concerned about any derelict Soviet spy satellite colliding with active American and European communications and weather satellites, like what happened in February 2009 when the Cosmos 2251 collided with the Iridium 33?

Severely doubtful:
a. that story line needs to be telegraphed before or shortly after the event, and wasn't
a. the way to do a safing is with a de-orbit tech, and not by an kinetic impact that net increases collision risks.

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[eeergo]

Gabbard plots starting to get more populated:
  https://mobile.twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1461119804207771652


https://mobile.twitter.com/SpaceNav2/status/1461124223049650176

[eeergo]

Cross-posting (re: inclination distribution):

We now have good input on the range of inclination distribution in the debris cloud: the ASAT appears to have generated a Gaussian +/-1.5 degrees structure, which is significant, beyond the +/- 60-100 km in altitude for most of the debris pieces tracked so far.

https://twitter.com/mikeclindsay/status/1461252315839488003

[Lee Jay]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the fragments of the old satellite formed during the testing of the anti-satellite system do not pose any threat to space activities.

In other news, it is now considered safe to shoot a shotgun shell in a random direction in your neighborhood every 90 minutes because the Russian military has determined that the resulting projectiles pose no threat to life or property.

[Rondaz]

We've shared some thoughts and preliminary analysis on the #Cosmos1408 breakup in our newest blog post, read it here:

https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1461393153194344454

[SciNews]

You're really missing something here. After the US performed its ASAT test in 1985 that generated debris, the United States sought to develop "non-kinetic" counter-satellite technology--in other words, stuff that did not create debris. That included jamming, hacking, and other ways of negating a satellite without creating debris that poses a hazard to other satellites.

Just pointing out escalating tensions. Intentionally creating space debris is unjustifiable.

EU Space Surveillance and Tracking
"this video represents a simulation of the initial dispersion of the fragments resulting from the reported #ASAT test. The event has increased the collision risk of spacecraft in the LEO regime registered to #EUSST, hence impacting the safety of EU #space infrastructure."
https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1461312176967368706

Gabbard diagrams representing the expected evolution of the tracked fragments from 15 to 30 November 2021
https://www.eusst.eu/newsroom/eu-sst-confirms-fragmentation-cosmos-1408/

[Rondaz]

@planet4589
@Eurekablog
@SpaceNosey
Plots of range between ISS and Kosmos-1408 since yesterday nov. 14 and the zoomed closest passes. Those closest passes where been at 21h+ of nov. 14th UTC, but ISS's event was reported later than this. Closest approach @ Nov. 14 21h50' ~170 Km.

https://twitter.com/Itzalpean/status/1460278013174632448

[Rondaz]

The point here was that if the ASAT test was made the 14th of November (not a confirmed fact at time of writing that) the 170 Km pass was more than enough to be a dangerous pass over a cloud of debris pieces. (1/2).

https://twitter.com/Itzalpean/status/1461687053721157640

[libra]

It's a nudol in a haystack... of space debris (runs for cover).

[Rondaz]

NSF Live: Russian ASAT Test w/ Jonathan McDowell.

[Rondaz]

This is different than the Gabbard diagram at:

https://leolabs-space.medium.com/part-ii-new-observations-on-cosmos-1408-breakup-3d8e5441f720

The whole episode is bad news and these altitudes are nearer the planned orbits of SpaceX, OneWeb, Telesat, GuoWang, and Kuiper.

https://twitter.com/larrypress/status/1462107344662241284

[Rondaz]

Rogozin said that the fragments of the downed satellite are not dangerous for the ISS.

Rogozin: Roscosmos is tracking fragments of a downed satellite, they are not dangerous for the ISS.

22:22 20.11.2021 (updated: 23:28 20.11.2021)

MOSCOW, November 20 - RIA Novosti. " Roskosmos " monitors fragments downed Russian Defense Ministry satellite "Celina-D", they do not pose a risk to the International Space Station (ISS), said on Saturday, the head of "Roskosmos" Dmitry Rogozin .

"These fragments are being monitored, we are exchanging this information with the Ministry of Defense ... We are monitoring, and these fragments do not affect the security of the ISS," he said on the Soloviev Live YouTube channel .

According to Rogozin, during the testing of anti-satellite weapons, wreckage remains, "but the Ministry of Defense, and it spoke about it, was modeling this situation in order not to harm anyone."

The Russian Defense Ministry previously reported that Russia successfully conducted tests on November 15, as a result of which the inoperative Russian Tselina-D spacecraft was hit. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the fragments of the old satellite formed during the testing of the anti-satellite system do not pose any threat to space activities. He also confirmed a successful test of the anti-satellite system.

Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense showed a video proving that the International Space Station is located 40-60 kilometers below the fragments of the Tselina-D satellite, and nothing threatens the station.

https://ria.ru/20211120/sputnik-1760003701.html

[Lee Jay]

Rogozin said that the fragments of the downed satellite are not dangerous for the ISS.

Rogozin: Roscosmos is tracking fragments of a downed satellite, they are not dangerous for the ISS.

...

Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense showed a video proving that the International Space Station is located 40-60 kilometers below the fragments of the Tselina-D satellite, and nothing threatens the station.

I'm trying to figure out if these people are liars or morons. Anyone have insight?

[dglow]

Rogozin said that the fragments of the downed satellite are not dangerous for the ISS.

Rogozin: Roscosmos is tracking fragments of a downed satellite, they are not dangerous for the ISS.

...

Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense showed a video proving that the International Space Station is located 40-60 kilometers below the fragments of the Tselina-D satellite, and nothing threatens the station.

I'm trying to figure out if these people are liars or morons. Anyone have insight?

Bit of both; the latter leads to the former.

[Rondaz]

Gabbard diagram for the Russian ASAT test based on Space-Track TLEs for first 100 or so objects cataloged. Each object gets two dots: perigee (red) and apogee (blue)

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1465587994119880705