Author Topic: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system  (Read 80014 times)

Offline thirtyone

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #40 on: 11/15/2021 06:24 pm »
Just confirmed. Debris due to this ASAT test, and it's threatening the ISS.



Definitely an ASAT test, 1,500 trackable objects so far, many more untrackable, and threatens ISS and HSF activities
« Last Edit: 11/15/2021 06:29 pm by thirtyone »

Offline Yiosie

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Offline gosnold

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #42 on: 11/15/2021 09:11 pm »
Is there any way to know when the NOTAM/Navigational warning was posted? I'd like to know if it was planned for a long time or just appeared recently, and if what is the usual lead time on those things.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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« Last Edit: 04/29/2022 10:59 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #44 on: 11/15/2021 09:42 pm »
Is there any way to know when the NOTAM/Navigational warning was posted? I'd like to know if it was planned for a long time or just appeared recently, and if what is the usual lead time on those things.

The NOTAM was posted on the "Voyenno-boltovoi" telegram channel on November 13, but it may have been published earlier.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #45 on: 11/15/2021 09:43 pm »
https://tass.ru/kosmos/12931753

TASS reports that Dmitri Rogozin will be discussing the space debris situation in a meeting with NASA officials in Moscow beginning at 8.00 UTC on Tuesday. Taking part in the meeting from the US side will be ISS Program Manager Joel Montalbano and NASA Associate Administrator Robert Cabana. The meeting had already been scheduled, but the space debris situation has been added to the agenda. It will be interesting to see how Rogozin talks himself out of this one. One wonders if he was involved in the decision-making process that led up to the ASAT test. After all, Nudol is a Ministry of Defense project and the test was aimed against a defunct Soviet military satellite. 

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #46 on: 11/15/2021 10:09 pm »
US Space Command statement:

https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2842957/russian-direct-ascent-anti-satellite-missile-test-creates-significant-long-last/

Quote
Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test creates significant, long-lasting space debris
By U.S. Space Command Public Affairs Office

PETERSON SPACE FORCE BASE, Colo.  – 

Russia tested a direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) missile on Nov. 15, 2021, Moscow Standard Time, that struck a Russian satellite [COSMOS 1408] and created a debris field in low-Earth orbit. The test so far has generated more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and will likely generate hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris.

“Russia has demonstrated a deliberate disregard for the security, safety, stability, and long-term sustainability of the space domain for all nations,” said U.S. Army Gen. James Dickinson, U.S. Space Command commander. “The debris created by Russia's DA-ASAT will continue to pose a threat to activities in outer space for years to come, putting satellites and space missions at risk, as well as forcing more collision avoidance maneuvers. Space activities underpin our way of life and this kind of behavior is simply irresponsible.”

USSPACECOM's initial assessment is that the debris will remain in orbit for years and potentially for decades, posing a significant risk to the crew on the International Space Station and other human spaceflight activities, as well as multiple countries' satellites. USSPACECOM continues to monitor the trajectory of the debris and will work to ensure all space-faring nations have the information necessary to safeguard their on-orbit activities if impacted by the debris cloud, a service the United States provides to the world, to include Russia and China.

“Russia is developing and deploying capabilities to actively deny access to and use of  space by the United States and its allies and partners,” Dickinson added. “Russia's tests of direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons clearly demonstrate that Russia continues to pursue counterspace weapon systems that undermine strategic stability and pose a threat to all nations.”

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #47 on: 11/15/2021 10:51 pm »
This is atrocious  >:(

I haven’t been this upset about space debris since Elon Musk proposed “Chomper” in response to a perfectly reasonable request for information on the Starlink end-of-life plan.

When is the world going to start taking space debris in LEO seriously??
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online DistantTemple

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #48 on: 11/15/2021 11:45 pm »
As this new debris decays it will pass through the Starlink layers! will it pose a significant risk? will it be widely dispersed by then?
Right now it is just above Starlink.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #49 on: 11/16/2021 12:56 am »
New thread: Political discussion - Russian Nudol ASAT test, November 15, 2021

Technical updates and discussion should continue here.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #50 on: 11/16/2021 12:59 am »
As this new debris decays it will pass through the Starlink layers! will it pose a significant risk? will it be widely dispersed by then?
Right now it is just above Starlink.
I forgot; is the Starlink satellite autonomous collision avoidance operational?

They may be the satellites best able to handle the threat.
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #51 on: 11/16/2021 01:17 am »
I haven't seen any mention of the altitude of the debris field.  Anyone else see it mentioned anywhere?  The inclination looked highe than ISS based on the upthread posts, but that also is not mentioned.

Offline launchwatcher

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #52 on: 11/16/2021 01:29 am »
I haven't seen any mention of the altitude of the debris field.  Anyone else see it mentioned anywhere?  The inclination looked highe than ISS based on the upthread posts, but that also is not mentioned.
A more recent post from LeoLabs: altitudes of 440-520km for the 100+ fragments they observed:

https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1460405672907059200

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #53 on: 11/16/2021 01:30 am »
I haven't seen any mention of the altitude of the debris field.  Anyone else see it mentioned anywhere?  The inclination looked highe than ISS based on the upthread posts, but that also is not mentioned.

Cosmos 1408 was at 465km to 490km by 82.56 degrees inclination.

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #54 on: 11/16/2021 03:02 am »
As this new debris decays it will pass through the Starlink layers! will it pose a significant risk? will it be widely dispersed by then?
Right now it is just above Starlink.
I forgot; is the Starlink satellite autonomous collision avoidance operational?

They may be the satellites best able to handle the threat.

Allegedly only as operational as the TLE's given to it. Which means SpaceX is hitting that F5 button on Celestrak pretty hard right now...

Offline AstroDave

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #55 on: 11/16/2021 04:14 am »
  It is my hope that more trustworthy and truthful information will come out of Russia about the decision making process behind this. Unfortunately, that possibility doesn't look good, and it won't change the fact that the debris field is now a reality. With the experience that Russia has in space operations, it seems far fetched to think that they are unaware of all, and I mean all, the repercussions of a satellite kill test like this one. The potential negative consequences of this test are just staggering. Alas, what is viewed by the west as negative could very well be viewed as positive through the current Russian geopolitical/economic lens.   
  As a fan of international partnerships in space, the decision by Russia to carry out this test is disappointing beyond words.


Mods, I see now that an L2 thread has been started up in the 'General Discussion, Space Policy' category. Apologies if this is off topic here, L2 membership is not in the cards for me currently. Please feel free to delete if needed.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2021 04:29 am by AstroDave »

Offline flyright

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #56 on: 11/16/2021 05:09 am »
The Chinese Space Station, at around 400 KM, would be below the debris cloud for now, but I would think it would eventually be a concern, unless maybe the phasing of the cloud's position vs the position of the Chinese Station would be enough to ensure separation.

Offline eeergo

Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #57 on: 11/16/2021 07:49 am »
Absolutely appalling, absurd behavior by Russia's executive echelons. Power crazed gorillas*. Given the consequences on crews, one can only hope Roscosmos wasn't privy, or forced to be just a spectator, to the decision-making process, and are as outraged and embarrassed as the rest of us.

As many have been saying: it was reckless in 2007, in 2009, in 2019 and now. Only now it was even "boringly" repetitive and the causes for condemnation were abundantly discussed and overwhelmingly accepted by every rational actor in the space domain.

Estimates for reentry seem to point to 2-3 years of greatly increased danger in LEO, and about 15 until most of the pieces are down:

https://twitter.com/ProfHughLewis/status/1460369576277991428

* In case someone objects to my language, you can take it up against this fun 14-gram piece of plastic: https://twitter.com/megsylhydrazine/status/1251528896656207875
« Last Edit: 11/16/2021 07:51 am by eeergo »
-DaviD-

Offline satcomopsuk

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #58 on: 11/16/2021 09:45 am »
FROM
https://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia_seeks_to_reassure_ISS_astronauts_after_missile_claims_999.html

"US officials said they were not informed in advance of the anti-satellite missile test -- only the fourth ever to hit a spacecraft from the ground -- which generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris."

Really ?
Do they not monitor Navigational Warnings and NOTAMs ?

Must admit I took my eye off the ball on this one , but previous tests by both Russia and India have been given a heads  up  days before .
On two previous occassions I have even given US Space Command  all the details , days in advance which they completely ignored.

This time round I suspect the Nav Warn was issued just once and unfortunately my sat system went down at just the wrong time  :-[




Offline libra

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Re: Russia tests Nudol ASAT system
« Reply #59 on: 11/16/2021 10:07 am »
The Chinese Space Station, at around 400 KM, would be below the debris cloud for now, but I would think it would eventually be a concern, unless maybe the phasing of the cloud's position vs the position of the Chinese Station would be enough to ensure separation.

Quote
posing a significant risk to the crew on the International Space Station and other human spaceflight activities

Quote
Right now it is just above Starlink.

This sounds like the beginning of that movie, what was the title ?
...
Gravity ?

 

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